Question about PMs going down straight after last GFC?

Skyrocket

Skyrocket

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Do PM prices have to go down straight after "next" GFC like they did last GFC?

Last GFC people panicked and sold everything in their portfolios which included paper PMs which was the main cause for sending PMs down. Then a year or two later they skyrocket, especially silver. Surely most people must still remember that and I wonder if coming soon next GFC will be different to last and PMs will not go down but up? We are in a bull market now !?

I've got some money put away waiting for this to happen (silver going down like last GFC) so I can buy more but now I'm not so sure it will happen like last GFC. And I really don't know whether to buy more silver at these prices and then find coming GFC PM prices go down again like last time.

Any thoughts/opinions will be appreciated?
 
In the GFC PMs were high after rallying post 2000, now they are relatively low after the long bear market.
 
There's no way to tell if the GFC low will be lower than where we are today.
 
Skyrocket said:
Do PM prices have to go down straight after "next" GFC like they did last GFC?

Last GFC people panicked and sold everything in their portfolios which included paper PMs which was the main cause for sending PMs down. Then a year or two later they skyrocket, especially silver. Surely most people must still remember that and I wonder if coming soon next GFC will be different to last and PMs will not go down but up? We are in a bull market now !?

I've got some money put away waiting for this to happen (silver going down like last GFC) so I can buy more but now I'm not so sure it will happen like last GFC. And I really don't know whether to buy more silver at these prices and then find coming GFC PM prices go down again like last time.

Any thoughts/opinions will be appreciated?
Click to expand...
Buy now anyway mate.
I am running on the assumption that price will pullback before a takeoff.
I am buying as much as i can in the "hope" that 18 months from now i can see a nice double+.
I am lucky enough that if i am wrong my only problem will be from the wife as we can afford to hold for another 30years or eternity.
 
sammy said:
There's no way to tell if the GFC low will be lower than where we are today.
Click to expand...

Yep, big difference to before.
But could the $10 bottom before be a psychological bottom again?

Ruc9SfV.png
 
Gullintanni said:
Skyrocket said:
Do PM prices have to go down straight after "next" GFC like they did last GFC?

Last GFC people panicked and sold everything in their portfolios which included paper PMs which was the main cause for sending PMs down. Then a year or two later they skyrocket, especially silver. Surely most people must still remember that and I wonder if coming soon next GFC will be different to last and PMs will not go down but up? We are in a bull market now !?

I've got some money put away waiting for this to happen (silver going down like last GFC) so I can buy more but now I'm not so sure it will happen like last GFC. And I really don't know whether to buy more silver at these prices and then find coming GFC PM prices go down again like last time.

Any thoughts/opinions will be appreciated?
Click to expand...
Buy now anyway mate.
I am running on the assumption that price will pullback before a takeoff.
I am buying as much as i can in the "hope" that 18 months from now i can see a nice double+.
I am lucky enough that if i am wrong my only problem will be from the wife as we can afford to hold for another 30years or eternity.
Click to expand...


I been steadily stacking over past 3 years and am happy with how my stack went so far and how much i got but I can always do with more. Average price of my stack is around $700 a kilo. Now a kilo is $950 and I don't know whether to buy more now or wait for next GFC to buy more at a cheaper price, that is if it goes cheaper like last GFC?
 
Skyrocket said:
I been steadily stacking over past 3 years and am happy with how my stack went so far and how much i got but I can always do with more. Average price of my stack is around $700 a kilo. Now a kilo is $950 and I don't know whether to buy more now or wait for next GFC to buy more at a cheaper price, that is if it goes cheaper like last GFC?
Click to expand...

Wait.
The current volatility in the market is have +/-$1 swings in day. At least wait for another -$1 swing to buy.
 
What are the odds that next GFC many people will sell everything in their portfolios except paper PMs because they still remember last GFC PM prices eventually skyrocket, thus causing PM prices not to crash like last GFC did?
 
The setup was way way different in 07/8 vs now. There was yield in bonds, QE2 was a ship and people are ready to scared in advance because they remember.
 
^ I been thinking similar things to you. Next GFC will be different because of those things there and also because world has simply gone into massive debt from first GFC and nations every year since then have been racking up more and more debt and going further in red. If another GFC happens again nations can't simply absorb more monster debts. Somethings got to give bad. That's why I been thinking next GFC will be different and why PMs will far surpass last highs and also maybe not crash down straight after next GFC like they did last time.
 
Two things to consider:
1) Will you be able to buy?
2) Will you be able to make the cash transaction?

Metals will fall with everything else, and rebound when nothing else does. But depending on the scenario, WWIII, EMP etc etc whatever. Are you better positioned 'now' to make the transaction? or willing to take a chance on waiting.

I agree that you should wait for a pullback. But pick your mark, listen to your gut & do what you feel is right for you.
 
SilverDJ said:
sammy said:
There's no way to tell if the GFC low will be lower than where we are today.
Click to expand...

Yep, big difference to before.
But could the $10 bottom before be a psychological bottom again?

http://i.imgur.com/Ruc9SfV.png
Click to expand...


hmm ... I'm noticing a pattern here.

Have a look at the period of late 2003 to late 2004 and compare it to mid 2005 to mid 2006 - In each case a rise, drop and then consolidation.

Now look at the pattern formed by mid 2007-2010 (the GFC), and compare that to Mid 2010-today - again rise, drop and then consolidation (we're still building upto the consolidation phase now).

The 'shapes' are errily similar, this should suggest a rise upto $50 over the next 9months, then about 6-12 months consolidating around $50, followed by a parabolic blow off to $100+(?).

That tells me that the next GFC won't be deflationary, we've already passed that stage, it should be inflationary.
 
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