Predictions for 2012 (post your own)

[Earthjade]

Of course, you can try to keep things propped up by printing money for a while, but in the end, it's not the total supply of money in the world that is determining the current situation (because most of what has been printed by Bernanke is still locked up in banks unwilling to lend or parked in US Treasuries).

If the money is in treasuries, then hasn't it been spent; namely as part of the US government budget?

It is being spent, this is true, but on the other side of the trade, it is not being spent.
In the end, it's all debt, so it can be spent both sides (which is perverse when you think about it).
But while the government needs to spend the money, this in and of itself does not create bubbles, per se.
As bonds are essentially dollar substitutes due to their high liquidity, the private holders of these treasuries need to be using them to buy up assets in order to create bubbles.
Governments can encourage bubbles, but it's up to private actors to actually make them.
So as long as banks hold onto treasuries and not use them, government spending alone is not enough to generate that omph of inflation that is really needed to get things going.
After all, Keynesianism prescribes temporary government spending to make up for demand shortfall in times of slump, but in practice it hasn't ever really worked.
To be fair to Keynes, he only ever advocated government spending in the short term. he never said governments should run permanent deficits - that was the Reagan adminsitration.

 

[hihosilver]

Europe - deflation will hit commodities hard, likely to see another 2008 event but worse. so gold silver down until the third leg of the bull market which wont be until they announce qe3 or that the fed will bail out europe. Calls for fiscal unity effectively ending sovereign identities and economies, huge riots)

china - hard landing and growth will slow big time

USA - gets a boost from europe imploding but attention will ultimately shift to it and its debt/frakked economy, police state worsens and push towards a unified north america (mexico/canada/usa), again huge riots, ron paul supporters cracked down on but people start to wake up

Aus - housing bubble will start to fall more quickly (already down 5% this year on average), resources boom slows and aus in recession by 3rd quarter

syria - nato will put in a no fly zone and bomb the sh*t out of syria similar to what happened in Libya

Iran - who knows but something will go down involving the US

more vague guesses really

Merry Christmas!

Very similar

The only difference is the Australia housing market - it won't fall much further, just to many foreign nationals moving in and the supply is not keeping up with demand.

Merry Christmas to all

 

[hilaire9]

* War Horse wins the Oscar for Best Picture.
* Catherine Zeta Jones and Michael Douglas seperate.
* The economy of the United States makes an amazing recovery.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average hits 15,000.
* Ron Paul will die after choking on a prune pit.
* There will be an earthquake in California.
* Mike Malony declares personal bankruptcy and goes back to selling women's shoes.
* Barrack Obama is elected President.
* What will be the price of gold and silver? How the hell would I know!

 

[BDR]

Here is what i think.

I will work like a dog.
Some one in finace take my money with giving me a reach around(super)
The Gov will bring out a new catch phrase
The carbon Tax
My Birthday
I will buy some more Pands
The wife will winge about Pandas
The finace sector will still be in the toilet, but there is a new idea

That's about it .

 

[VANGBAC]

Congrats. to all contributers to this thread. I have read it from beginning to end. Many useful insights and predictions plus other questions raised i have not thought of before.
My prediction for 2012 I will still be alive for my next Birthday unless im wrong again.

 

[Ausecon]

Another good thing about deflation is this would likely mean the Aussie dollar takes a big hit, being seen as a resources-driven currency.
As gold is measured in US dollars, any hit to the gold price is likely to be cushioned by a similar hit to the Aussie dollar.
That's a nice little wealth preserver when term deposits are approaching zero and the stock market is bleeding red.

The thing people forget is that as the GFC Mk 1 hit, Aussie banks actualy increased term deposit rates as it became more difficult to access wholesale funding and they had to compete for deposits.

 

[Matthew 26:14]

Another good thing about deflation is this would likely mean the Aussie dollar takes a big hit, being seen as a resources-driven currency.
As gold is measured in US dollars, any hit to the gold price is likely to be cushioned by a similar hit to the Aussie dollar.
That's a nice little wealth preserver when term deposits are approaching zero and the stock market is bleeding red.

The thing people forget is that as the GFC Mk 1 hit, Aussie banks actualy increased term deposit rates as it became more difficult to access wholesale funding and they had to compete for deposits.

Correct. I got 8% for 5 years term deposit @ Westpac in January 2008, maturing January 2013.

 

[Matthew 26:14]

My 2012 predictions....

Dow Jones ---> 11,000

All "very" Ordinaries - - - > 4,500

Europe ---> severe recession, perhaps technical depression

China ---> GDP for the year of 6%

Gold ---> $1,900

Silver ---> $45

Platinum ---> $1,500

Britain ---> survives the worst of the Euro meltdown, Olympics helps with this.

 

[alor]

Another good thing about deflation is this would likely mean the Aussie dollar takes a big hit, being seen as a resources-driven currency.
As gold is measured in US dollars, any hit to the gold price is likely to be cushioned by a similar hit to the Aussie dollar.
That's a nice little wealth preserver when term deposits are approaching zero and the stock market is bleeding red.

The thing people forget is that as the GFC Mk 1 hit, Aussie banks actualy increased term deposit rates as it became more difficult to access wholesale funding and they had to compete for deposits.

Correct. I got 8% for 5 years term deposit @ Westpac in January 2008, maturing January 2013.

did the bank sent out

a corrected statement

mean to say please pay us 8% and we will reward you the 0.0005% :lol:
as an additional offer, please take loans from us 5X of the cash amount and we will change 0.00001% for your use of our credit facility

so you may back up your boat and load it with the giant pm bars , left with no choice but to wait for 2013 before buying boat load of gold ans silver again, in the mean time prey the price do not go up so fast, better to go lower, can buy more.

 

[Ausecon]

did the bank sent out

a corrected statement

mean to say please pay us 8% and we will reward you the 0.0005% :lol:
as an additional offer, please take loans from us 5X of the cash amount and we will change 0.00001% for your use of our credit facility

so you may back up your boat and load it with the giant pm bars , left with no choice but to wait for 2013 before buying boat load of gold ans silver again, in the mean time prey the price do not go up so fast, better to go lower, can buy more.

I'm sorry i don't understand what you are saying.

Is your point that there is an opportunity cost of having a TD? I'd agree.

Is your point you should allocate all your eggs into one basket? I'd disagree.

 

[Butch]

I've listened to the so called experts and read all the theories , but here's how I see it.
Gold & silver are chalk & cheese, but you wouldnt think so to look at spot charts. Somewhere on this planet there's a relatively small group of powerful people rubbing there hands with glee, as there plans slowly but surely fall into place. When they finally pull the plug where do you think their wealth will be? Silver /shares/currency. Not likely, it will be physical gold. But there's still alot of monkeys to shake out of the tree yet. They ar'nt in any hurry. Gold prices will fluctuate wildly until they possess the lions share. Gold will always be king. Joe ordinary will buy silver because its affordable. $3000 currently buys 100 ounces. $3000 does'nt buy 2 ounces of gold.
Silvers a commodity, golds a store of wealth. Dont get me wrong, I;d still prefer $30000 invested in silver than $30000 in the bank. I know it in my knower.

 

[Earthjade]

Another good thing about deflation is this would likely mean the Aussie dollar takes a big hit, being seen as a resources-driven currency.
As gold is measured in US dollars, any hit to the gold price is likely to be cushioned by a similar hit to the Aussie dollar.
That's a nice little wealth preserver when term deposits are approaching zero and the stock market is bleeding red.

The thing people forget is that as the GFC Mk 1 hit, Aussie banks actualy increased term deposit rates as it became more difficult to access wholesale funding and they had to compete for deposits.

Correct. I got 8% for 5 years term deposit @ Westpac in January 2008, maturing January 2013.

Hmm.
I did not know this.
Sounds counter-intuitive when you take into account Reserve Bank movements, but it makes a lot of sense when there's a funding squeeze.
However, an 8% return isn't going to be an advantage if the AUD dollar plummets from $1.00US to $0.60US as it did in 2008 - a 40% loss.
Those people holding US denominated assets would have done better than an 8% term deposit, provided the asset itself fell by less than about 30% of its nominal US value.

The more I think about everything, the more I realise I don't know and the more I understand just how many incredibly complex variables are involved.
The only somewhat cold comfort I have is that nobody else out there really knows anything either, inclduing the experts.
A bet on gold and silver is a bet on "fundamentals" and the fact that all these shenanigans will be corrected by natural market forces.
But I am fully aware that fundamentals may be screwed over in the end - nothing would surprise me at this point.
If they can keep the shenanigans of the ponzi market going past our lifetimes, then the fiat merchants will have technically beaten all of us.

 

[Nugget]

I've listened to the so called experts and read all the theories , but here's how I see it.
Gold & silver are chalk & cheese, but you wouldnt think so to look at spot charts. Somewhere on this planet there's a relatively small group of powerful people rubbing there hands with glee, as there plans slowly but surely fall into place. When they finally pull the plug where do you think their wealth will be? Silver /shares/currency. Not likely, it will be physical gold. But there's still alot of monkeys to shake out of the tree yet. They ar'nt in any hurry. Gold prices will fluctuate wildly until they possess the lions share. Gold will always be king. Joe ordinary will buy silver because its affordable. $3000 currently buys 100 ounces. $3000 does'nt buy 2 ounces of gold.
Silvers a commodity, golds a store of wealth. Dont get me wrong, I;d still prefer $30000 invested in silver than $30000 in the bank. I know it in my knower.

That's exactly how I see it as well Butch.

 

[Ag]

I've listened to the so called experts and read all the theories , but here's how I see it.
Gold & silver are chalk & cheese, but you wouldnt think so to look at spot charts. Somewhere on this planet there's a relatively small group of powerful people rubbing there hands with glee, as there plans slowly but surely fall into place. When they finally pull the plug where do you think their wealth will be? Silver /shares/currency. Not likely, it will be physical gold. But there's still alot of monkeys to shake out of the tree yet. They ar'nt in any hurry. Gold prices will fluctuate wildly until they possess the lions share. Gold will always be king. Joe ordinary will buy silver because its affordable. $3000 currently buys 100 ounces. $3000 does'nt buy 2 ounces of gold.
Silvers a commodity, golds a store of wealth. Dont get me wrong, I;d still prefer $30000 invested in silver than $30000 in the bank. I know it in my knower.

Butch - we will have to agree to disagree

There both VERY good investments IMO but why just gold if it's 5 time more abundant today than silver? (name reason because silver is a commodity and used up daily) is that a crime or problem? or one of it benefits?

One of golds great assets/demand's is it rarity but then what? I don't see the 'value' compared to silver in comparison

Silver might be 50 times cheaper than gold today but what about into the future?

 

[fiatphoney]

The more I think about everything, the more I realise I don't know and the more I understand just how many incredibly complex variables are involved.

Generally happens when you turn twenty and stop being a teenager.

Consider how Celente got stuck with MFGlobal.

(I don't care to post too much. Mostly to keep those in check who want to win a debate through dishonest and unfair means. Although I enjoy the sport of being stupid. I hope one day I can be good at it, like (insert youknowwho here) even though I won't know anyways. Yesterday I got told I was a tease/stirrer, oh the pinnacle to achieve the fishface look, to achieve 'the cod' - you're a clod award. Oh I have given far too many away. Lament me. And I want them back!) But no I don't want them from teenagers, they have no respect for the sport of stupid, they give it away far too easily and, whatever, are no challenge at all. What use has a fish for a sea of water, or a teenager swimming in an ocean of stupidity.

Yes today's financial matters are incredibly complex and hard to bring into focus, as deceit and thievery usually lurk in darkness.
However holding God's plan for money, gold and silver, will reward you in the long(ish) run, (in the long run you are dead.)
Beware the Red Shield false flags however.

Just as being kind can seem to increase your IQ by as much as a third, doing things God's way in the Holy Bible will give a multi-fold return (a righteous leverage, no the word harvest would be more appropriate) in all things (money, love & marriage etc.)
That's what I teach my teenagers. True wealth can only be received from another (from God), through faith. Faithfulness is the display of this wealth (His wealth) in action, the more you spend of this wealth, the more that is at your disposal. Christmas reminds us of God's gift and goodwill to all, an invitation to whomsoever will come. Will you be a true riches stacker? The more you give away, the more you get to stack. (I am not talking about money, though it can play a part.)

 

[Butch]

I've listened to the so called experts and read all the theories , but here's how I see it.
Gold & silver are chalk & cheese, but you wouldnt think so to look at spot charts. Somewhere on this planet there's a relatively small group of powerful people rubbing there hands with glee, as there plans slowly but surely fall into place. When they finally pull the plug where do you think their wealth will be? Silver /shares/currency. Not likely, it will be physical gold. But there's still alot of monkeys to shake out of the tree yet. They ar'nt in any hurry. Gold prices will fluctuate wildly until they possess the lions share. Gold will always be king. Joe ordinary will buy silver because its affordable. $3000 currently buys 100 ounces. $3000 does'nt buy 2 ounces of gold.
Silvers a commodity, golds a store of wealth. Dont get me wrong, I;d still prefer $30000 invested in silver than $30000 in the bank. I know it in my knower.

Butch - we will have to agree to disagree

There both VERY good investments IMO but why just gold if it's 5 time more abundant today than silver? (name reason because silver is a commodity and used up daily) is that a crime or problem? or one of it benefits?

One of golds great assets/demand's is it rarity but then what? I don't see the 'value' compared to silver in comparison

Silver might be 50 times cheaper than gold today but what about into the future?

Silver as a commodity relies on demand to increase price. People just like us have put a false floor under silver, but that is already beginning to wax thin. People who talk about backing up trucks ( If they had the money ) are simply showing that they have learnt nothing. If this money is sitting in our banks currently, then I would say the spot price of silver is the least of their worries.

 

[Miss Silver]

My prediction is that everyone on here has been wrong since the day I joined.
Reverse yourself 6 months ago and silver was to be $100 abd gold $2500,

Dosnt it all sound very formiluar ?

 

[Prior]

I predict that my TV will fly out the window if I see Julia(r) Gillard spout about how well everything is going and that we are all little children that don't know what is right and wrong in her patronizing monotone one more time!

Financially I will be hoarding gold and cash because I want high liquidity and a stable hedge for either inflation or deflation.

 

[Dirtbikepilot]

I predict that in 2012 we will still be predicting and still probably wrong

 

[grinners]

31/12/12 - $59 and $2,480