Precious metals demand

mmm....shiney!

mmm....shiney!

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Silver Stacker
Anyone ever lived through a market where demand for precious metals is at a low?

I mean seriously, there are offers from sellers to trade gold for spot on this forum. No need to be concerned about low ball offers when coins and bars are offered premium free at times. I've seen sovs at spot from a dealer in the past month or so.

Anecdotal evidence is suggesting that we're currently in a lull, which is probably a reflection of the broader economic conditions we're facing in Australia.

So, keen to hear what we can expect based on past market downturns.
 
Yes , premiums have gone out the window .
I believe people are scared to buy when the price is at an all time high .
Yes I've bought a bit at spot over the last month or so , only from certain dealers & as long as your not fussed at what you get .
But that's every industry .
Watches are down 20%-30% if not more
https://www.watchtime.com.au/produc...le-47mm-3-days-chrono-flyback-forze-speciali/
Have a look at the discounts
Even chrome bumper cars are down 30%- 50%

I'm offering to buy $50 notes for $40 & $100 notes for $75
 
mmm....shiney! said:
So, would your thesis be that premiums will return when the economy improves?

When will the economy improve ? people are saying 2-3 years
More like 10 I say .

The RE market is not facing that headwind.
Click to expand...
Not true , the media isn't talking about it , thats all .
I have a few friends who are developers / builders .
Nothings selling , it's just the media not talking about it .
Another mate , his Mrs is PA to the owner of a big realestate company in Vic .
They culled 30% of staff 2 weeks ago & more weekly coffee's & cake with weekly massages for everybody ,
A diamond setter I know , 3-4 days turn around , before Christmas he was 2 weeks turn around period .
 
Let's get into the realestate question , I've been debating with my friends in realestate .
This is just 1 area .
Who owns most of the realestate in every major CBD ?

Super funds,banks , wealthy Asian investors who can afford to hold long term .
AND ?
The good old boys , from private schools & got together starting with 1 building .
Now have 10 buildings ,all under finance while living beyond their means .
Rental rates are low in the CBD & anybody who thinks they can just turn a commercial building into residential , is totally dripping - balls deep tripping
Nothing's selling in the CBD , the good old boys need to bail out .
Now the banks & Super funds own the majority of the CBD , which is dead ,
They can afford to sit for 10 years while prices do what they do .
Everything will be devalued .
That's my doomsday scenario
 
I agree that we won't see demand for PMs improve until the economy improves. How long? I have no idea, but watch for when governments start pumping liquidity into the real economy.

spannermonkey said:
Nothings selling , it's just the media not talking about it .
Click to expand...

Qld property prices going through the roof, so whatever is happening in Melbourne is not happening in Qld. Now the reason for that is that demand is outstripping supply (thanks to international and interstate migration) and there's likely to be no changing the supply side of the equation - and consequently demand in the next 12 months. Now, as far as gold goes demand is not outstripping supply, so buyer enthusiasm is subdued as I think for most people buying physical bullion falls into discretionary spending (just like watches) unlike the RE sector in Qld.

spannermonkey said:
Who owns most of the realestate in every major CBD ?
Click to expand...

I'm talking residential, not commercial. 70% of residential property in Australia is owned by those that live in those dwellings.
 
Sovs at spot? Wow, where? I’d be all over these at spot

mmm....shiney! said:
I've seen sovs at spot from a dealer in the past month or so.
Click to expand...

Residential real estate with land is still holding up in Melbourne. I read the other day the premium of houses with land vs units and apartments with minimal to no land is widening.

I also suspect some goldbugs have turned to BTC and other cryptos. There’s a lot of hype in Bitcoin again with the halving about 50ish days away.

“Retail” gold buyers are nowhere to be found, and then all of a sudden they will rush in again, what that catalyst might be who knows? War, recession leading to money printing and stimulus again, economy picks up and people feel more inclined to spend, etc
 
mmm....shiney! said:
So, would your thesis be that premiums will return when the economy improves?



The RE market is not facing that headwind.
Click to expand...
Premiums will return and so will buyer sentiment,its still a time tested highly sought after asset...ATH should be encouraging to people as it shows growth and hedge to inflation somewhat, silver on the other hand still sells in many place with premium but is far short of ATH im younger/dumber and more ignorant then many here but if bought at ATH for Ag some still under water so at best speculation. To poor for real estate but borrowers hesistant at such high rates especially at prices unless your in high bracket top % buying outta manys hands atm and maybe for good
 
I find it fascinating having been on both this iteration of Silverstackers and the original forum. I joined Silverstackers sometime around 2008 when I began wondering about silver and why it was a precious metal that wasn't particularly expensive and decided to buy a little each month. I met so many amazing people, particularly Steve Coppin who became a good friend and mentor and a group of us met up often in a pub in Sydney. Back then the forum was really buzzing and when the great PM run-up occurred things were a real party as there was constant talk of silver going "to the moon" and speculation of $100.00 silver and beyond. That's when Turk started the "overnight spot watchers" thread because every morning the price was going up. The forum was full of huge characters and it was an exciting time as everyone believed that if the world next arrived at a SHTF scenario that people that held precious metals would flourish as the world suddenly tried to flood into PM's as a 'safe harbour" against currency failures.

SHTF arrived with a "pandemic" that allowed TPTB to wholesale strip ordinary people of their basic human rights for a couple of years and to put every state and country into a debt mire so deep that there is no way out for places like Victoria. Now there are looming wars across the globe. SHTF has arrived and still there is no "to the moon". If you bought gold or silver at the right times, whether paper or physical it has been a good investment and prices are rather stable now. There are probably a lot of reasons for the relative un-popularity of silver but I suspect that one of them is generational - Young people are absorbed in the digital world and are withdrawing mentally from the physical. They don't care about cash, why would they care about lumps of metal? Most people below 30 seem to simply put their trust in digital "money", they never even see actual money any more, their welfare or wages are digital, their shopping is digital, their lives are digital.

Lets see what happens next!
 
This is the first time I’ve struggled to move metals and will have to resort to a dealer.
Really taught me the importance of sticking to low premium metals for as much of the stack as possible
Difficult to do when ounce gold is $3k+ but no one wants to buy fractional at a fair price so damned if I do and damned if I don’t
 
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