Phase II starts in Australia
- Thread starter intelligencer
- Start date
Hard to follow some of these posts,but are we all forgetting what happens in March with EFT contracts expiring?Would the current 'correction' not just be the banksters easing some of the pain then?
As boneyard said,another 12 months...
Shaking out the bears or the spec money for sure...
I'm surprised in a few Ag soldiers breaking ranks at a few dollar drop...this is what silver investing is unfortunatelly about...price movements in both directions.
I look forward to the day logging onto Kitco to see a historic chart showing some period where all this 'movement' is nothing more than background noise to allow the current spot fit on the page
As boneyard said,another 12 months...
Shaking out the bears or the spec money for sure...
I'm surprised in a few Ag soldiers breaking ranks at a few dollar drop...this is what silver investing is unfortunatelly about...price movements in both directions.
I look forward to the day logging onto Kitco to see a historic chart showing some period where all this 'movement' is nothing more than background noise to allow the current spot fit on the page
Yeah i reckon a ten year chart isn't the one to be used to this comparison.
I'd look to the 1 year chart.
source: www.24hgold.com
Keep in mind that this 'classic' market phases chart was undoubtedly devised when full on market manipulation was a rarity and thus the actions of JPM and HSBC et al are not an influence on it.
We are only just getting tiny nibbles of 'media' attention. Public awareness would mean many many people that you know are buying - i still know of no one personally that is buying.
We are that "The First Sell off"
I'd look to the 1 year chart.
source: www.24hgold.com
Keep in mind that this 'classic' market phases chart was undoubtedly devised when full on market manipulation was a rarity and thus the actions of JPM and HSBC et al are not an influence on it.
We are only just getting tiny nibbles of 'media' attention. Public awareness would mean many many people that you know are buying - i still know of no one personally that is buying.
We are that "The First Sell off"
intelligencer said:
This. It looks like we will find out today if the mid $26s will hold on silver. If not, some more pain and opportunity. But we are hardly in a mania phase of the pm market. Only gold is anywhere close to its 200 ema and that is around $1276. This drop in pms is a correction in an ongoing bull market.
Matthew 26:14
New Member
Though pretty much every time there has been high inflation (mid 70's, early 80's, etc) precious metals rise. So if you think inflation is going to kick off, history would tell you that PM's will rise.
Although this has been a very uncomfortable correction, that is what a bull market does. It tries to buck you off (credit to Richard Russell). I am seeing a lot of capitulation by bulls and that doesn't happen at the top of a bull market. But for those in doubt, you only have to remember one thing. Fiat money is being created in vast quantities around the world. Real stuff (commodities) will increase compared to a fixed amount of fiat. Simple economics will eventually triumph over manipulation.
edit: So far the bottom levels in gold and silver that were predicted by Turd Ferguson have been tested once and held. I have to confess that this morning felt very uncomfortable and that is normally a bottoming area. I actually don't worry about price fluctuations in physical pms, but those price fluctuations are magnified with pm stocks. So, at times like this, I have to remember what happened in the 1970s-1980 to pm stocks.
edit: So far the bottom levels in gold and silver that were predicted by Turd Ferguson have been tested once and held. I have to confess that this morning felt very uncomfortable and that is normally a bottoming area. I actually don't worry about price fluctuations in physical pms, but those price fluctuations are magnified with pm stocks. So, at times like this, I have to remember what happened in the 1970s-1980 to pm stocks.
reflection
New Member
from goldprice.org
reflection
New Member
And a counter argument might be that silver is just catching up to gold.
I bit dated but supports the idea:
http://gregnguyen.blogspot.com/2010_08_01_archive.html
I bit dated but supports the idea:
http://gregnguyen.blogspot.com/2010_08_01_archive.html
reflection
New Member
Thanks Mud, you are speaking my language.
I see 3 possible answers to our charts different perspectives.
1) Both of us are right. Both our charts predict a dip, yours then predicts the future and mine does not. It might be like Mandelbrots, inside the large shape smaller versions exist.
2) You are right and this explains the lack of media attention and lines outside bullion shops.
3) I am right. To continue the debate I have to answer the reason why I can speculate that we are in the mania phase and yet we don't see lines outside shops and media shows telling us to buy metal. I have been pondering this question and I think the reason is the internet. In the late 70s run up there was no internet and so the only way to buy would be to go to the bullion shop. Lining up waiting outside the bullion shop converts the financial event into a social event. The mainstream media then will report on it.
In the late 2000s run up their is no need to line up at the bullion shop, you click buttons in a web browser. Since there are no lines, there is no traditional media attention. This stops the bull run from converting into a social event and therefore does not become reported in the mainstream media or discussed by the general public. In addition to this the internet divides us all into clans, people not interested in finance can easily avoid it on the net, where as when people were being informed by the media were subjected to all forms of information including finance.
Going to be interesting to see what happens.
Thanks again.
I see 3 possible answers to our charts different perspectives.
1) Both of us are right. Both our charts predict a dip, yours then predicts the future and mine does not. It might be like Mandelbrots, inside the large shape smaller versions exist.
2) You are right and this explains the lack of media attention and lines outside bullion shops.
3) I am right. To continue the debate I have to answer the reason why I can speculate that we are in the mania phase and yet we don't see lines outside shops and media shows telling us to buy metal. I have been pondering this question and I think the reason is the internet. In the late 70s run up there was no internet and so the only way to buy would be to go to the bullion shop. Lining up waiting outside the bullion shop converts the financial event into a social event. The mainstream media then will report on it.
In the late 2000s run up their is no need to line up at the bullion shop, you click buttons in a web browser. Since there are no lines, there is no traditional media attention. This stops the bull run from converting into a social event and therefore does not become reported in the mainstream media or discussed by the general public. In addition to this the internet divides us all into clans, people not interested in finance can easily avoid it on the net, where as when people were being informed by the media were subjected to all forms of information including finance.
Going to be interesting to see what happens.
Thanks again.
reflection
New Member
f40 said:
One could argue this is the very definition or delusion / denial.
reflection
New Member
MelbBrad said:
Yes