Phase II starts in Australia
- Thread starter intelligencer
- Start date
Slam said:
Following from my previous post, perhaps the next wave of investor interest will be met with the next wave of shorting and manipulation? Might see a large pump up soon, followed by a significant dump, profit taking and re-setting losses from this year. The final shake-off?
Note: I'm well underqualified to make any of these assumptions what do others think might happen? Price explosion seems to be the general consensus.
A pump and dump scenario designed to shake the tree and to steal silver from the weak hands is definitely a real possibility. In fact, I'd say it's almost guaranteed to happen, but to what degree is the mystery. The question is... who will fall victim to the "bad guys" and who will stand tall and protect their long term future wealth.
Norrin Radd
Member
So this morning on business channel they were talking about the commodities sector and how it has out performed in 2010 when one of the analysts (the asian lady, cant remember her name) mentioned silvers 70% gain and attributed it to no more silver manipulation. Funny enough tho the hosts and other analysts didnt say whaaaa?? or even have a little chat about silver after she mentioned it, they just went on to talking about oil, copper, gold and gold stocks.
Some of the indicators that we might be seeing a "phase shift" in Australia:
* retail superannuation funds add investment options for precious metals, like ASX warrants or Perth Mint Depository
* lenders start offering margin loans on precious metals
* CFD ads in investment magazines start getting replaced with precious metals ads
* Today Tonight start covering "mums and dads cashing in on the gold and silver boom"
* new retail bullion stores opening (as is now happening in Melbourne)
The flight to SMSF will probably see the first point on this list being addressed soon by a retail fund.
When retail investors start borrowing $100k to buy physical metals because they're chasing a capital gain, we'll well and truly be in phase II.
* retail superannuation funds add investment options for precious metals, like ASX warrants or Perth Mint Depository
* lenders start offering margin loans on precious metals
* CFD ads in investment magazines start getting replaced with precious metals ads
* Today Tonight start covering "mums and dads cashing in on the gold and silver boom"
* new retail bullion stores opening (as is now happening in Melbourne)
The flight to SMSF will probably see the first point on this list being addressed soon by a retail fund.
When retail investors start borrowing $100k to buy physical metals because they're chasing a capital gain, we'll well and truly be in phase II.
KyleSector
Member
goldpelican said:
Which retail bullion store is opening in Melbourne?
Do you mean ABC?
ABC has a retail presence already - Level 10, 227 Collins St. Just take the elevator up.
I was referring to http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-4740-australian-coin-and-bullion-exchange.html
I was referring to http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-4740-australian-coin-and-bullion-exchange.html
KyleSector
Member
goldpelican said:
Damn I just had lunch across the road from there today - didnt even notice it.
Will have to go have a look tomorrow
Ok if you're a seller, but not if you're trying to stack 
But you're dead right, crazy stuff indeed.
But you're dead right, crazy stuff indeed.
Silverthorn
Well-Known Member
hobo-jo said:
ebay has always had over the top price for PM gear that I've been watching it nothing new there. The only suggestion I've had for it is anonymity.
Silverthorn
Well-Known Member
hobo-jo said:
The premium tends to increase quite a bit when a rally looks imminent. Doesn't look that unusual to me considering the jump in silver last night.
Bill Haynes of CMI Gold & Silver Inc. comments on where he thinks we are at in the 'Phases' on this weeks KWN Weekly Metals Wrap
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...rap_files/KWN Weekly Metals Wrap 1:1:2011.mp3
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...rap_files/KWN Weekly Metals Wrap 1:1:2011.mp3
http://www.smh.com.au/business/goldman-input-values-facebook-at-us50b-20110103-19dx7.html
The above is an article valuing facebook at 50billion. Seriously the numbers thrown around are staggering. You also have to look at how much singers get paid. Lady Gaga? 100s millions?
Isn't it insane the amount of money we have floating around for non-essential items and non-essential entertainment and services. When the collapse happens, these things will not be needed for survival. Food, shelter, basic necessities will be needed. Everything else will not be bought or paid for.
I think humanity is living in some fantasy land here, 1billion buys alot of things at the moment. Imagine if you had 100 million, how many houses can you buy? how much food and gold at present can you buy?
If banks have trouble putting together 1 ton of gold at 42million, wait until these singers, rock stars, chinese bullionaires, property tycoons, soccer stars, IT company owners flushed with cash rushing to secure some real wealth.
Anyway I digress, I think my main point is to provide some real life pointers on just how much in perspective has our monetary system grown relative to real physical precious metals.
I don't think we will hit phase 3 until some mega rich starts buying up big and we see longer then 6 month lead times to delivery from mints.
Slam
The above is an article valuing facebook at 50billion. Seriously the numbers thrown around are staggering. You also have to look at how much singers get paid. Lady Gaga? 100s millions?
Isn't it insane the amount of money we have floating around for non-essential items and non-essential entertainment and services. When the collapse happens, these things will not be needed for survival. Food, shelter, basic necessities will be needed. Everything else will not be bought or paid for.
I think humanity is living in some fantasy land here, 1billion buys alot of things at the moment. Imagine if you had 100 million, how many houses can you buy? how much food and gold at present can you buy?
If banks have trouble putting together 1 ton of gold at 42million, wait until these singers, rock stars, chinese bullionaires, property tycoons, soccer stars, IT company owners flushed with cash rushing to secure some real wealth.
Anyway I digress, I think my main point is to provide some real life pointers on just how much in perspective has our monetary system grown relative to real physical precious metals.
I don't think we will hit phase 3 until some mega rich starts buying up big and we see longer then 6 month lead times to delivery from mints.
Slam
millededge
Active Member
Carlos Slim is rumoured to be trying to buy Fresnillo, I read on King World News - they don't come much bigger than Carlos 
Slam said:
I think it's just the thing where people are looking constantly for some big moneyspinner. FB is the current target, but 50 billion is totally unrealistic even if you do think it is worth quite a bit. These guys always seem to get these valuations wrong.
Thing about FB is, sure, you can get all those people flocking to you when the service is free. But what happens when you want to monetize it?
I read one person saying how it is a useful database for marketing and I guess that is true to some extent, but people are fickle and new technologies will arrive, FB's days in the sun will be numbered. If I was there, I would be doing everything to make as much money as I can now while the "bubble" lasts.
Bit OT from silver but I think has some useful analogies. It's all human behaviour and that's what really determines FB and silver.
reflection
New Member
Interesting chart reflection, would this be in a normal situation where it follows the trend line which is created by programs to react like this anyway ? So I would think there is a strong chance of this happening short to mid time frame.
So it would take a significant change or event for this to react differently ? So I guess it then boils down to manipulation exposure, shortage in the market, and a strong demand to keep happening for something to effect this outcome as the chart predicts.
On the other hand I am sure someone will show another chart showing something different again argggg... Mug punters like me stand no chance
So it would take a significant change or event for this to react differently ? So I guess it then boils down to manipulation exposure, shortage in the market, and a strong demand to keep happening for something to effect this outcome as the chart predicts.
On the other hand I am sure someone will show another chart showing something different again argggg... Mug punters like me stand no chance
reflection
New Member
The chart, to me, says we are nearing the end of the Mania Phase (Phase 3). I see the bubble chart as being like Elliot Waves, there are macro and micro versions, but this one depends on months to build up momentum in the public's mind. I will guess that the internet makes this process faster, faster for the ideas to travel, faster for the buying and selling to be done.
While I am here I am not happy with the bubble term, it implies that the run up was based on hot air only and no substance. I think "bubbles" happen based on actual realistic concerns which fail to reach the worst case scenario and then fade as a concern, which then drops the price. It is possible to have the left half of this bubble happen, the realistic concerns continue, and the price not collapse. Matching the left of the chart does not guarantee the outcome on the right of the chart.
What I wanted to do with this chart was look for evidence that the "Mania Phase" prices matched with media attention levels. I am not sure I proved that completely but it does match with Google searches. But what came first? Media -> Google -> Price? Price -> Media -> Google? Or is it all symbiotic. If it is a symbiotic loop then I think this is exactly what a Mania Phase is.
There is talk now of the world economy continuing to recover, hence the panic is passing and so is the need to protect ones self. We can argue about that being true, but it does not matter. If the public generally thinks the bad is behind us then they will go to where investing is still cheap, houses maybe in the US, but for us here it is not property, it may not be PMs any more, stocks is all that is left.
Silver is more liquid due to it being cheaper. It will be sold easier than gold and so I expect it to drop faster than gold. Gold price is more stable because it is hard for it to go up due to the expense and peoples resistance to pay so much for so little (or high premiums for so little).
I also think the "Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver" was successful and that has now run out of steam. I think it was the most successful "advertising" for silver in this cycle. All those who were going to buy (outside of the bugs), have bought. I think the internet has been a significant force in PM prices and this has not been recognised by many people.
I might be completely wrong.
While I am here I am not happy with the bubble term, it implies that the run up was based on hot air only and no substance. I think "bubbles" happen based on actual realistic concerns which fail to reach the worst case scenario and then fade as a concern, which then drops the price. It is possible to have the left half of this bubble happen, the realistic concerns continue, and the price not collapse. Matching the left of the chart does not guarantee the outcome on the right of the chart.
What I wanted to do with this chart was look for evidence that the "Mania Phase" prices matched with media attention levels. I am not sure I proved that completely but it does match with Google searches. But what came first? Media -> Google -> Price? Price -> Media -> Google? Or is it all symbiotic. If it is a symbiotic loop then I think this is exactly what a Mania Phase is.
There is talk now of the world economy continuing to recover, hence the panic is passing and so is the need to protect ones self. We can argue about that being true, but it does not matter. If the public generally thinks the bad is behind us then they will go to where investing is still cheap, houses maybe in the US, but for us here it is not property, it may not be PMs any more, stocks is all that is left.
Silver is more liquid due to it being cheaper. It will be sold easier than gold and so I expect it to drop faster than gold. Gold price is more stable because it is hard for it to go up due to the expense and peoples resistance to pay so much for so little (or high premiums for so little).
I also think the "Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver" was successful and that has now run out of steam. I think it was the most successful "advertising" for silver in this cycle. All those who were going to buy (outside of the bugs), have bought. I think the internet has been a significant force in PM prices and this has not been recognised by many people.
I might be completely wrong.
intelligencer
Active Member
Well that was underwhelming.
I can't believe its all over already. Economy recovering, real estate set to zoom again, people eager to spend again.
So what am I going to do with all this silver and gold?
In all seriousness, I think this is the first sell off / bear trap than the end. The gradual rise of metals and increasing awareness has brought us the first serious selloff without a generalised crash like in 2008.
This is profit taking going on. And bears are rejoicing thinking we're headed much lower only to get burned on the reversal.
Not only that but these are all paper games.
The reason why I say this is in a true mania phase prices will double or more in a mere weeks and months.
This is all fake and a definite bear trap.
I can't believe its all over already. Economy recovering, real estate set to zoom again, people eager to spend again.
So what am I going to do with all this silver and gold?
In all seriousness, I think this is the first sell off / bear trap than the end. The gradual rise of metals and increasing awareness has brought us the first serious selloff without a generalised crash like in 2008.
This is profit taking going on. And bears are rejoicing thinking we're headed much lower only to get burned on the reversal.
Not only that but these are all paper games.
The reason why I say this is in a true mania phase prices will double or more in a mere weeks and months.
This is all fake and a definite bear trap.