Phase II starts in Australia

Of course, while gold's mark 3 Bull Run gets seriously going the squeeze on Ag will send it on a wild ride.

I think (and why not my guess is as good as anyone's) that Ag's phase 3 will start in 2011 and last 5 to 10 years. This is the approx time it took for Aussie real estate bubble to blow up. According to bubble charts I've been investigating that many bubbles mimic the fall in the same time frame it took to rise. I believe people in phase three will see silver as a 'sure bet' considering it is both money but it's so necessary in our high tech and medical world. It's even jewellery like gold. It's also a luxury as in rare/proof coins. I mean, even in sour times people demand luxury-that's what gold is really. Ultimately, I believe that collectables will command a huge premium. Especially once people realise it's harder to get physical! People will be having to off lode a lot of fiat dollars chasing a limited resource that has been manipulated. This I think will go on for about 7-10 years-about the time it takes to get a new mining operation going and bolster supply in the market. Remember the silver market is small and not many people have the shiny and it's getting harder to get at 'spot' price to fiat. Still, while the charade is playing we can stack a little higher at what will be staggering cheap prices from the view of P3.

Silver is an awesome precious metal.

Keep stacking
 
I feel like commenting, I don't feel we are in a bubble yet (phase 3).

You only have to think and see whats around you and how much money is floating out there.

Seriously, you get rich people paying 1grand+ for an LV bag. You have people living it up, all we see is that they have more money then brains. I believe the whole monetary system has expanded so much, we really don't know how much money is out there. All I can see is, there are many many more people that are richer then me. If I can afford a decent stack, theres others that I know that can buy 3-5 times my stack as an investment.

Those that live it up and have the money have not waken up to the fact that their wealth at the moment is just some funny toilet paper. We just have to wait until the mega wealthy start buying up PMs at any given price, then we know we are in phase 3.

Slam
 
Interesting thought AgOx, I've picked up a few silver coins at auction lately

and have been agonising about whether to flip them quick or hang on to them for

a while.


In practice it's a bit of both but I'd be interested to hear what other people think about

what will happen to the numismatic premium as the bull run picks up steam.


Another consideration is what happens to the manipulatiion schemes, will they wind down slowly or

blow up all of a sudden? The physical delivery crowd may have a say in the answer to that question.


Mark.
 
Good discussion guys.

I'm no economist,but is it fair to say that in the US they owe 14 Trillion or something and are printing fiat like no other time in history, and when the SHTF scenario happens,how many "sheeple" will be looking at their paper life savings and saying "ive gotta dump this and get something of "VALUE"?" and first will go to Gold because thats recognised as a store of value,pushing the price rocketing skyward...then when they cant afford that they will then head to the next best thing as a store of value...SILVER? Golds "little cousin".I reckon the whisper is slowly getting out there...the yanks are buying in and hedging (record ASE sales)cos the smart ones can see whats happening to their economy.The Chinese and the indians are buying up gold,thats their government as well as the people.When the SHTF,then we will see phase 3...BIG TIME ..Just a matter of WHEN it happens - Only IMHO.
 
From my perspective phase 2 is still just warming up. When the articles and stories in the mainstream news starting getting more on the bullish side then phase 3 will have started. That probably wont start until gold has run over 1500 and consolidated again.
 
the reason why i think Phase III will last only for a week, is due to
the fact that when pms bubble and go parabolic than it is the
death of paper currency.
Plus theres gonna be wars, so no time for phase 3 to last long.

but thats me
 
In Hobart.

200,000 people.

One shop sells PM's

One shop sells numis.

Only ever saw 2-3 people in each shop.

Gold buyers are in 2 large shopping centres.

Pawn shops only have shiny Gold & Silver trinkets.

Weekend markets... Main 2 in Hobart, only 1 numi/PM seller at each.

When things change, that will be phase 3.
 
Are there two shops? I only saw one last time I was there. In the arcade opposite La Cuisine. You know the one. Regret not buying up all the 37 crowns, even though $28, when the POS was around $20. That shop had a modicum of bullion coinage but at rates which bespoke the insular mindset.

My experience of Tas is that it is great to start a fad business as pent up Taswegian demand is generally unmet until late in the piece, such as the juice and sushi crazes. Maccas and M&Ms were very late. The maccas franchise has done exceptionally well, judging by the predominance of box-shaped middle aged women.

Even real estate was late there. You could not give away properties on the north east coast at one point, prior to the mainstream television media's influence.

Same prospect as far as metals goes, I think. A motza can be made due to the mindset there. Frontrun the flock. And flock behaviour there is not to be underestimated.

Absolute zero in L'ton. One shop in Burnie with no silver, though advertises as a coin shop cum video parlour. Plenty of the latter and next to no metal.

An educated, disciplined entrepreneur with local understanding could clean up - my impression.
 
hobo-jo said:
The way I see it.

Phase 1: 2001-2005
Phase 2: 2005-2010
Phase 3: 2011-2012 (may end sooner, maybe slightly later)

I think relative to the 70s bull market we are at around 1978 and very soon will head truly parabolic.
Click to expand...


I think you're spot on.

Quite a lot of people here seem to have come on to the precious metals scene in the last 6-12 months.(myself included). While we'd like to think that we're getting on at ground level, the fact is we're not. We're a part of the building momentum. So was the development of this website and it's rapid expansion. As Hobo points out ground level was back in 2001-2005 .

I would suggest that we are in the very early stages of phase III. This puts us a long way in front of the general public but we also need to reflect on just how far this bull market has already come to gain some perspective.

I think we are in for a hell of a ride in the next couple of years. But those holding out for Silver at $1000/oz will miss the top completely.

C
 
chimpanchu said:
hobo-jo said:
As I said we are entering 3rd phase, not smack bang in the middle of it.

Gold is not even at it's inflation adjusted high? You talk about this as if inflation adjusted high is the baseline from which it will launch to even higher prices... it could, but the way I see it Gold was in a bubble in 1980 when it soared to $800+ and it will be in a bubble again when it surpasses the inflation adjusted high (unless we are heading to a world in which Gold once again plays a role in the monetary system, which could happen, but I just do not see as likely).

What is your definition of true value? I mean the DOW:Gold ratio was over 40 at it's peak around 10 years ago today it's around 8... I think much smarter to look at the relationship between Gold and other assets, not Gold and it's $ price which can easily become distorted with the financial shenanigans that central banks are pulling.

You say grandmas and grampas will be involved the only way they know how.... this is who you are claiming is the average joe?? Average joe is all ages, no point narrowing down to one segment of the population to try and get your view across. Ask some of your Gen X/Y friends who currently have no interest in Gold how they would buy "investment grade bullion" and see what answers they give you...

I know plenty of average joes who are not professional investors, but have an eTrade account (usually rarely used but). Online trading in my opinion will make a huge difference in the way the public gets involved in this bull market, unless we really see a SHTF scenario, which I just don't see in Australia (I expect recession/depression, but living condition won't be as bad as during the great depression). Even if they are buying physical, look at the options to buy online! Why would they lineup when they can just call/go to web page of the Perth Mint or Bullion Mark, lock in the price and have it delivered? I think you are truly underestimating the current generations reliance on the usefulness of the internet if you think we're going to see the old "lines around the block" scenario.

I think both Gold and Silver will trade at multiples of current prices, I just think we are on the cusp of that occurring in the next couple of years.

Most of those waiting for ridiculous numbers like Mike Maloney's $15,000 Gold in my opinion will be severely burnt (unless we see hyperinflation in the US in which case it's likely the price will be quoted more commonly in another currency anyway).
Click to expand...

We are still far away from being "entering 3rd phase", 2nd phase was just beginning. 2nd Phase just started when gold hit $1,000 in late 2009. Now is 2010 and gold is only $1,400 up $400.

The 1st phase is spanning roughly 9 years (2001-2009) and 2nd Phase is suppose to be the longest phase in a bull market. To say we are finishing 2nd phase and entering 3rd phase in gold bullmarket right now is way premature.

If inflation adjusted Gold price have not even beat it's last all time high. Using US govt official CPI figure, Gold all time high in 1980s $850 can be translated to today's dollar $2,300+. With gold at $1,400 today, it is no where near its 1980's inflation adjusted price. And today you got WAY more dollars floating around in the world than it was in 1980s. Gold is still dirt cheap, the general public have not participated in Gold bull run, we are no way near entering the 3rd and final phase in bull market.
http://www.goldprice.org/james-turk/2008/01/real-gold-price.html

According to Seeking Alpha, $1,400 in 2010 is worth less than $700 in the early 1980s (inflation adjusted).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/238208-why-inflation-isn-t-affecting-gold-prices

I'm wasn't saying granmas and granpas are the only average joes out there, I wasn't even saying that is my definition of average joes. Sure there are people who buy gold online, or buy ETFs but also there are people who buy gold at the store. Why is it ABC Sydney experiencing ever increasing number of walk-in customers and the mania haven't even started yet, why can't everybody just buy online?

On personal note, the "lines around the block" scenario may not occur in Australia because we have such a small population. This could be occuring in other places with higher population density such as China, USA and Europe.
Click to expand...

According to John Williams at Shadow Stats...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...assive_Selling_of_US_Currency_Lies_Ahead.html

"The earlier all-time high in gold of $850.00 of January 21, 1980 would be $2,391 per troy ounce, based on November 2010 CPI-U-adjusted dollars, and would be $7,840 per troy ounce in terms of SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars. In like manner, the all-time high price for silver in January 1980 of $49.45 per troy ounce has not been hit since, including in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars. Based on November 2010 CPI-U inflation, the 1980 silver price peak would be $139 per troy ounce and would be $456 per troy ounce in terms of SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars."
 
In my opinion a sign of the top is when on average gold and silver mining (those that are in production) companies are making high (15-20% or higher) returns on equity. If I am not mistaken (not my area of expertise so feel free to correct me if I am wrong) many gold and silver producing companies are generating single digit or at best low double digit returns on equity, meaning gold and silver prices have much higher to run.

When gold is extremely undervalued many gold miners are losing money and start hedging their production for fear of further price declines. When gold prices are reasonable, the higher quality producing gold miners make low returns on equity. When prices go into bubble mode higher quality gold mining producers make high returns on equity.

Hobo-jo you seem to be the in house expert on gold and silver mining companies and hence I would be interested to hear your opinion on the current profitability of gold and silver mining companies and whether my analysis generally stacks up. I acknowledge issues of by product mining and the associated credits as well as various accounting chicaneries associated with the mining industry makes profitability analysis difficult, but nonetheless I would be interested to hear your view.
 
What I like is the AUD gold price chart. For the last 2 years it has been consolidating with an upward bias. And if you bought at the peak late 2008, you haven't made a dollar... so those buying now can pretend they got on board 2 years ago ;)
 
what will be interesting is if the global monetary system brings back a partial gold standard to help regain order and credibility.

Say gold gets a fixed cost of say $10,000 per oz therefore staying on its high forever, how will that reflect on silver?
 
hobo-jo said:
Do you think the 100% rise in Silver this year that I mentioned is not reason enough to think that public interest is increasing? What % would it take then? 500%? 1000%?
Click to expand...

That's because silver is a small market. A small amount of money moving into the sector could easily send the price much higher. But it doesn't mean we are near phase 3 even though the price increase is staggering. You gotta look at investors participation in the sector. While some big hedge funds and investors putting a small amount of money in Gold and Silver, a large portion of investors still haven't joined the party.

Phase 1, 2 or 3 is not determined by percentage PRICE rise, it is determine by percentage market PARTICIPATION! The general market climate STILL bearish on PM they're still heavily invested in Bonds, Real Estate, Common Stocks and Derivatives. And they're not going to enter PM market as long as they are still making money in the above mentioned assets. It will take a massive crash in these markets for these guys to look up and notice Gold/Silver.

If you think this 100% rise is indication of Phase 3, wait till you got ALL hedge fund managers and wallstreet banks abandon their current investment vehicles and jumped into PM. I can't even imagine the price of Gold/Silver when this is happen. Only then you'll realize your so called Phase 3 in PM is way premature! We still got along way to go in PM bull market.
 
bsides said:
What I like is the AUD gold price chart. For the last 2 years it has been consolidating with an upward bias. And if you bought at the peak late 2008, you haven't made a dollar... so those buying now can pretend they got on board 2 years ago ;)
Click to expand...


Oh very cruel
Like the Justin Beiber dolls at the entrance of toys r us
are these to replace the voodoo line of kiddie toys
 
hobo-jo

"As I've said though I think a smarter way to play the top will be to look at the ratios against other assets and move into those that are priced well against Gold, not to watch for monetary targets."

What specifically, and can you give a case study theoretical of how you'd manage it please.
 
Past performance usually indicates future performance.

My past performance is consistent. I enter parties late and leave before the best action.

I've recently entered the PM party so this must be late stage 2 or early stage 3.

I (almost) always make money when I speculate but sell well before the top. I hope to cash out at 2x current prices which suggests this bubble's peak will be at least 3x or more.

Disclaimer: unless, of course, this time is different.
 
JulieW said:
hobo-jo

"As I've said though I think a smarter way to play the top will be to look at the ratios against other assets and move into those that are priced well against Gold, not to watch for monetary targets."

What specifically, and can you give a case study theoretical of how you'd manage it please.
Click to expand...

I think from previous posts he's talking about the dow housing oil. Basically you are comparing the prices of things against each other to find out what's cheap and what's expensive, rather than relying on it's measurement in fiat.

This is what I don't get about a lot of people on here. Many say they are buying silver and holding onto it for the long-term and aren't going to sell or they are going to wait for some ridiculous price and then they'll know it's at the top. To me these people are no different from the housing bulls who basically say the same thing just change the name of the asset.

It seems to me that very few PM investors understand how the market works, despite the fact they've been able to latch onto PM's.
 
hennypenny said:
Past performance usually indicates future performance.

My past performance is consistent. I enter parties late and leave before the best action.

I've recently entered the PM party so this must be late stage 2 or early stage 3.


Disclaimer: unless, of course, this time is different.
Click to expand...

Usually "You'll always find me in the kitchen at parties, da dada da, yes you'll always ..." although "I go to parties sometimes until 4, it's hard to leave when you can't find the door, da da da ..." The da da's are instrumental breaks by the way.

Mate, don't be too hard on yourself. You're here, the party is just winding up, you're not in the kitchen, sure some were here before you, but it's all about to happen. Don't know what "all" is as I'm speculating, but there are some very cluey people here who seem to have a grip on things, read and learn and ask.
 
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