Permabulls

[Silver bullitt]

I reckon anyone who has over invested (either financially or other) into a particular field and are sooooooooo deeply wrong they are unable to make the hard call and say they are wrong, therefore they must at all cost, talk up that particular field even though all signs are screaming at them that their view at that particular time is incorrect.

I know two such people at this moment in time - my brother - in - law, and BrotherJohn (utuber)

another POV is if they are right - Heavens help us all ! because we will never live it down.

Brother John a permabull?
Yeah, I can see where you are going but I quite like BJ's confident and well researched positive outlook.
Admittedly, this is where I go when I need reassurance and I find his Utube presentations efficacious when I am down about my silver investment.
If he is a permabull I will have to overlook that flaw and keep the faith in our silver Messiah.

 

[Pirocco]

What excactly is a permabull?

I see its meaning as somone who is permanently bullish on a specific asset/investment.

...Well if someone is permanently bullish on something then they would never sell!

I think it's a stupid bloody word (the perma part at least)

Over the 2 years I followed the story I noticed that the permabulls appear mostly in uptrends, and the permabears mostly in downtrends.
So in many cases, the 'perma' isn't actually perma haha.
A plausible explanation is that in uptrends they sit ready to sell and need others to believe much higher price predictions, and in downtrends they sit ready to buy back in and need others to believe much lower price predictions.
By now they became smarter (because their victims learnt haha) but in the beginning (early may 2011) you saw many of the former permabulls forum users 'transform' to permabear ones. I remember one case with only a single day difference. It was so funny-crazy-obvious that I stored the story in a .txt file:

https://www.kitcomm.com/search.php?...rteronly=1&exactname=1&searchuser=theplantguy
Page 4 is that period.
$38 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79452 04 april 2011 "Great way to start the week......don't you think?"
$39 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79517 05 april 2011 "39 ...One more step up the ladder"
$40 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79723 07 april 2011 "Thursday..............Yet another up day"
$41 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80243 13 april 2011 "Hump Day...........Up Day"
$42 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80318 14 april 2011 "Killer Thursday............Movin' on up"
$43 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80419 15 april 2011 "A Fabulous Friday............Great Finish For The Week"
$44 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80679 19 april 2011 "Monday.........Up Up and Away"
$45.5 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80932 20 april 2011 "A Whale of a Wednesday............45+"
$46.50 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81069 21 april 2011 "A Thundering Thursday...............Look at that puppy go!!"
$49.50 25 april 2011 PEAK 1 - FIRST PROFITGRAB
$45 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81462 25 april 2011 "Monday Mayhem.............Y'all survive? Monday Mayhem............Y'all survive? What a day. Actually, not all that bad. The long term trend is still up. Just a minor bump. A "little" more volatility than usual."
$46 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81576 26 april 2011 "A downturn of 2 days or 2 weeks is not significant in the over all scope of things"
$49.50 28 april 2011 PEAK 2
$48 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81937 29 april 2011 "Silver..........Something to consider"
$44 1 may 2011 SECOND PROFITGRAB
$33 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81423 6 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"

So yes, the 'perma part' is a 'stupid bloody word'
About this terminology, in reality, the 'bull' part actually refers a bull throwing up his victims in the air, while a 'bear' pushes down his victims on the ground.
The 'victim' part of the story implies an action performed by the bull/bear that is the opposite of the victims action (ex the former selling after an uptrend, the latter buying after an uptrend).
A word like 'permabull' holds therefore a contradiction with the meaning of bull/bear.
Maybe that 'perma' isn't placed in an absolute (relative to Jesus Christ then haha) time frame, but in a limited one, the one of the price cycles uptrend/downtrend durations. Then it would be correct.

 

[hihosilver]

I reckon anyone who has over invested (either financially or other) into a particular field and are sooooooooo deeply wrong they are unable to make the hard call and say they are wrong, therefore they must at all cost, talk up that particular field even though all signs are screaming at them that their view at that particular time is incorrect.

I know two such people at this moment in time - my brother - in - law, and BrotherJohn (utuber)

another POV is if they are right - Heavens help us all ! because we will never live it down.

Brother John a permabull?
Yeah, I can see where you are going but I quite like BJ's confident and well researched positive outlook.
Admittedly, this is where I go when I need reassurance and I find his Utube presentations efficacious when I am down about my silver investment.
If he is a permabull I will have to overlook that flaw and keep the faith in our silver Messiah.

Looks like you have already taken a view about BJ as a GOD ? I see a guy who YES does go down every possible rabbit hole however, he should be auditioning for the new Mulder in the next X-files season :/ tread carefully on his permabull advice. I've been down that path before when he said silver was going to $100.00 and he has lost me as a interested follower. Now, I do clock in every so often but most things with PMs at this moment in time is white noise for me :/ I'm now thinking this stacking was all a bit of a melarky really but it's good to have some hedge in case SHTF :| sorry guys I'm loosing the faith with stackin big time and feel that I've run my race on this cause.

 

[Caput Lupinum]

Jim Sinclair

 

[Pirocco]

Yes, that's what I also do: continue stacking.
And the lower the price becomes, the more I can bring down my average.
If I have the bad luck to have to sell some, I'll sell some, and not an ounce more.
I might have better luck on other occasions. And on average, I might do better than a bank account had been over the period, complemented with a certainty instead of a maybe.
But I don't step in any uptrend anymore. Not without seeing general price increasings switching in a higher gear. And if the silver price doesnt drop in the coming years to $18 or lower, I'll buy other things, if avail, as savings. The markets which I think are more undervalued than silver. I don't forget that in 2008 silver price bottom has been half that $18 target ($9). And even $5 a few years earlier.
There is alot 'investment' silver stock out there, that will all be thrown for sale in the years to come. I think a next $18 purchase has a good chance.

 

[mmissinglink]

I agree Pirocco and I'll go it one further. I believe the higher prices of gold that has been seen over the past several years is actually the real manipulation. What we are seeing now is really more of a correction in price. Think about it....nearly $2,000 for an ounce of metal that you can not eat, wear to protect your body, defend yourself with, maintain your hygiene, provide shelter for you, make your car go, power your flashlight, or anything meaningful. Gold is relatively useless. It has no intrinsic value. Those high prices of gold are the epitome of over valuation and manipulation.

The permabull would have you believe that humans require gold to live and would tell you that it is indispensable.....it is not. It is a dispensible commodity that just happens to be over valued most of the time.
.

 

[Pirocco]

Well, a product that can efficiently serve as money, is bound to be not usable for personal applications like food clothes etc. And I consider money as one of the most crucial products in the economy. So it's not like that I consider gold or silver useless clutter. I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone that sits on the front of the general price increasings wave, looking around to see the most lagging (thus undervalued) products in the wave. And gold nor silver, despite the price corrections already seen, is amongst those that are on the trailing edge of the wave. Not anymore. That was true in the eighties/nineties and early 2000's. Gold and silver still sit on the leading edge, with +100% price risings relative to 5 years ago. I think we'll have some years avail to pick out the moments that the money for nothing club mostly left. Considering the price drop today, I bet that those 5000 added positions were already dumped again. They try to lure people into buying new uptrends, but I guess too many learnt too expensive lessons, me included. And I'm happy to see it. I rather prefer some years around $20 than a rally to $25 followed by a dump again to $20 and probably lower since I bet that a $25 will trigger alot 'get outs'.

 

[gazzahere]

"I agree Pirocco and I'll go it one further. I believe the higher prices of gold that has been seen over the past several years is actually the real manipulation."

I believe it's the other way around - its not the higher price of gold - it's the lower value of the dollar - if you want to see the clear picture, look at the purchasing power since 1900.


"......Think about it....nearly $2,000 for an ounce of metal that you can not eat, wear to protect your body, defend yourself with, maintain your hygiene, provide shelter for you, make your car go, power your flashlight, or anything meaningful. Gold is relatively useless. It has no intrinsic value.........."

Exactly the same argument for $2000 in cash - the big difference is your gold WILL buy you something in 100 years, your cash will definitely not - and give or take a few years, gold will probably buy you apx. The same in the future as it does now.

"The permabull would have you believe that humans require gold to live and would tell you that it is indispensable.....it is not...."



Gold is a permanent store of value.

Humans have proved for 10's of thousands of years that we need stores - that's why we started growing things, that's why we dried corn, that's why we invented pasta (flat storage).

That's why we started carrying gold - because we could trade it - for weapons, information, food, sex, whatever.

It doesn't matter what you trade for 10 Swords as long as the cutler wants what you have got - be it a ton of pasta or half an ounce of gold.

The big deals about gold are the things gold bugs carry on about - portability, hide ability, durability, reliability - and history.

It is far easier and safer to sit out war times and bad times sitting on a stash of gold than sitting on a pallet of pasta.

You can pick your ounces of gold up and run like hell - try doing that with a ton of pasta.

That's why you don't find antique furniture going back very far in history and you do find trunks - because wealth had to be portable.

Gold will only become truly useless when we stop having war and famine - and I might go out on a limb here, but I can't see that happening for a while.


Have a great day


Gazza

 

[trew]

Think about it....nearly $2,000 for an ounce of metal that you can not eat, wear to protect your body, defend yourself with, maintain your hygiene, provide shelter for you, make your car go, power your flashlight, or anything meaningful. Gold is relatively useless. It has no intrinsic value. Those high prices of gold are the epitome of over valuation and manipulation.

You are absolutely right. Oil is the real commodity I'd rather be stacking. That is where the real action is.
However a huge tank full of crude in my back yard might draw some attention - and I don't think it keeps all that long either.

So I use gold as a proxy for oil (well that thinking works for me anyway)
Gold is much easier to store and transport and it doesn't go off


The mining of gold is highly dependent on energy so as the price of oil goes up so does the cost of mining an oz of gold along with the cost of everything else
Yes it might drop some more but there is no way gold is going back down to under $500 unless oil goes back down to $30 - and I don't see oil dropping

 

[sammysilver]

There is a lot of single-mindedness to this thread. If you think oil is more important than PMs, stack a little oil, the same for food, cash, medicine etc. Just because you may be bullish on metals it does not mean you are blind to other essentials and opportunities.

I have started stacking cigarettes because when the SHTF, smokers will crawl over broken glass to get their nicotine hit. However, I am concerned that if the use-by-date is reached, they may knock them back for health reasons.

 

[hihosilver]

There is a lot of single-mindedness to this thread. If you think oil is more important than PMs, stack a little oil, the same for food, cash, medicine etc. Just because you may be bullish on metals it does not mean you are blind to other essentials and opportunities.

I have started stacking cigarettes because when the SHTF, smokers will crawl over broken glass to get their nicotine hit. However, I am concerned that if the use-by-date is reached, they may knock them back for health reasons.

Seriously sammysilver :| you actually think the SHTF here in Sydney really I reckon some of us need to really stand back I mean really stand back very far and look at this :/ you expect the SHTF :/ Some here are looking at this with a lot of paranoia in mind simply because you are selective in your thoughts. I suppose the simplest way to look at this is from the view point of driving a car (actually from a truck). See sitting up higher than the car driver, that truck driver can see perhaps 5-10 cars ahead of him, where as the guy in the small car can only see the back red lights of the car in front of him. Often the truck driver can make moves to ease his driving well in advance to the car and the car driver is frustrated and can only make his decision on a gut feeling or follow like a sheep, and in some cases often pulling out when he should have stayed exactly where he was but the truck driver can see all this occurring. Now with the SHTF possibility, that truck driver is trying to see perhaps not only 5-10 cars away but actually trying to see 2 or 3 traffic lights away or 20-30 cars away. Yes he can make some good moves to make his driving easier between him and that furthest traffic light however, because there are so many cross roads, breakdowns, small cars making incorrect decisions, people texting, etc and possibilities between him an that furthermost traffic light he can not predict what is going to happen but only adjust at the very most 5-10 cars away. It is impossible to work out what is going to happen that far in advance. So, if you reckon you can see this SHTF possibility, perhaps you can please tell me the 6 numbers in lotto tonight so we can all walk away from stackin PM's.

Sorry for the long ramble here and I hope it makes sense. :lol:

 

[bordsilver]

^ Continuing the random analogy, most SHTF scenarios will rhyme and you'll almost certainly benefit if you've got working brakes and your seat belt on for example. Doesn't mean you won't hit another car but there's a much high probability you'll be better prepared.

 

[mmissinglink]

There is a lot of single-mindedness to this thread. If you think oil is more important than PMs, stack a little oil, the same for food, cash, medicine etc. Just because you may be bullish on metals it does not mean you are blind to other essentials and opportunities.

I have started stacking cigarettes because when the SHTF, smokers will crawl over broken glass to get their nicotine hit. However, I am concerned that if the use-by-date is reached, they may knock them back for health reasons.

Good points.

 

[sammysilver]

Wow, have I touched a raw nerve. The SHTF the day I was born. The end game is a well catered wake. One goes through life trying to make best with the cards dealt. You can live in memory or anticipation or for the moment. I choose to stay in the moment with an eye for the future. That future includes some contingencies. I have some silver, food, nooky, cash and other essentials on the side which I may or may not need in an ermergency. I may come down with the flu and not leave my apartment for a week. I don't need to call on anyone for help.

 

[pdkbffwleo]

There is a lot of single-mindedness to this thread. If you think oil is more important than PMs, stack a little oil, the same for food, cash, medicine etc. Just because you may be bullish on metals it does not mean you are blind to other essentials and opportunities.

I have started stacking cigarettes because when the SHTF, smokers will crawl over broken glass to get their nicotine hit. However, I am concerned that if the use-by-date is reached, they may knock them back for health reasons.

I've started stacking milk...because all babies drink it.

 

[mmissinglink]

I've started stacking air in my safe alongside my silver because Martians apparently can't stand the stuff and I heard they go after silver hidden in safes.

Ooofa!

 

[C.H.]

How many trolls does one forum need? ...

 

[mmm....shiney!]

How many trolls does one forum need? ...

As many as it takes to change a lightbulb.

 

[PAGAU]

Best to start stacking Oxygen.

As the world consumes oxygen (O2) to produce more carbon dioxide (CO2) the actual amount of free oxygen is decreasing. That's right, it's disappearing!

The Carbon Tax is actually an "Oxygen Consumption Tax" but NO ONE can see that.

Stay ahead of the curve.

The way I see it, Oxygen will be in big demand in the future. Its up there with food and water.
The government (if you believe them) says you can't live without it.
When the SHTF you will definitely need a tradable Oxygen Stack.

The gov't hasn't told you yet but in the near future the "Oxygen Consumption Tax", (disguised by being called a Carbon Tax) will be payable by everyone.

Of course you Consume Oxygen, you exhale CO2, so you ARE a Consumer (some nasty types say polluter).

So heed this unsolicited advice from a Permabull, start stacking Oxygen NOW!

PS:I'm not sure what the Gov't could do to you if you don't pay your Oxygen Consumption Tax??

PPS: Of course the Govt may confiscate all Stackers Oxygen in the future so DON'T TELL ANYONE you are stacking.

 

[pdkbffwleo]

. I don't forget that in 2008 silver price bottom has been half that $18 target ($9). And even $5 a few years earlier.e.

I don't forget that silver was $35 last fall either...at nearly half of what it was a year ago.