People "look" very worried!

S

secondcoming

New Member
I have noticed that alot of people are selling lots of "over priced" vintage,proof and coloured coins lately.

They are also selling lots and lots of what I would call their "retirement or bedrock" silver supply - I.E. - ASE's

People seem very worried,the mood is very pessimistic :(

I sold all of my PM's about 1 year ago,and I sleep much better because of it.

Sorry if my position upsets you :(

I could be wrong,but just saying.



Do not forget - Cash is King,Gold is Insurance,and Silver is Speculation :cool:
"Quote" - HYIAMDERRICK - International SSer - Chicago - USA

SC
 
I am buying as much as I can, swapping large bars and coins for 1oz or half oz also buying as much gold as I can afford.
 
If a lot of people are selling, does this not mean that a lot of people are buying?
 
And that if more people are selling the ones buying are getting a better deal with smaller premiums
 
I think that anyone who has half a brain is worried. We are approaching the terminal stage of the largest financial experiment in the history of mankind. If it is this year or next year or the year after we are soon going to be in the middle of a massive economic upheaval. You should be worried. The only question I ask is are you more worried if you hold pieces of paper backed by the full faith and credit of your government. Paper that can be mass produced at a moments notice, or are you more worried holding PM that have been money for 1000's of years. You decide!
 
gooby said:
If a lot of people are selling, does this not mean that a lot of people are buying?
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Short answer is yes,

but look closely at who is selling (number of trades/experience)

plus some "major" players here are very,very conspicous by their abscence,I.E. - - -

plus also look at what they are selling (proof/colour/vintage/ect) stuff not really owning "when the poo hits the fan" - IMHO

The facts are/will be - people are about to make some good gains or "good" loses - IMHO

So you decide and be quick :)

Just saying

SC
 
secondcoming said:
I have noticed that alot of people are selling lots of "over priced" vintage,proof and coloured coins lately.

They are also selling lots and lots of what I would call their "retirement or bedrock" silver supply - I.E. - ASE's

People seem very worried,the mood is very pessimistic :(
Click to expand...

So when people start selling those 'distinct' 2014 koalas, we know that the market is optimistic :P
 
secondcoming said:
I have noticed that alot of people are selling lots of "over priced" vintage,proof and coloured coins lately.

They are also selling lots and lots of what I would call their "retirement or bedrock" silver supply - I.E. - ASE's

People seem very worried,the mood is very pessimistic :(

I sold all of my PM's about 1 year ago,and I sleep much better because of it.

Sorry if my position upsets you :(

I could be wrong,but just saying.



Do not forget - Cash is King,Gold is Insurance,and Silver is Speculation :cool:
"Quote" - HYIAMDERRICK - International SSer - Chicago - USA

SC
Click to expand...

You could also interpret the selling of proof, coloured coins, etc. as people thinking it is an optimistic time to buy silver. Maybe they are trading in higher semi numi stuff in order to buy more ounces of silver? Personally, I think silver is going lower and took the opposite approach. Last year, I swapped a US mint box for a box of lunar mice. This year, I sold the remaining 1400 or so ASEs and two sheets of 2010 Pandas. I still have my lunars, kooks, etc. that should do well at retaining their value if silver declines. If silver pops up, I won't participate much for the first $10-20 in price increase, but I can live with that.
 
I am only a year into buying and I have seen no difference at all with what any of the 25 or so dealers I monitor sell or what is being sold on eBay. A year ago, just as many color and proof coins were being sold as today.

It's very unlikely that there will be a US dollar collapse for a very, very long time. I believe it's possible that the BRICS nations will produce their own unified currency some day and the US $ will not play second fiddle to it.....or at least not for a very long time.

What does that mean for pm's? General stability in spot price variation....nothing out of the usual hiccups up and down. Therefore I believe that semi-numis and numis will out perform bullion coins in general in investment opportunity / gain.

That said, I am not opposed to the purchase of bullion...just that it won't perform as well for the foreseeable future in my moderately informed view.
 
mmissinglink said:
I am only a year into buying and I have seen no difference at all with what any of the 25 or so dealers I monitor sell or what is being sold on eBay. A year ago, just as many color and proof coins were being sold as today.

It's very unlikely that there will be a US dollar collapse for a very, very long time. I believe it's possible that the BRICS nations will produce their own unified currency some day and the US $ will not play second fiddle to it.....or at least not for a very long time.

What does that mean for pm's? General stability in spot price variation....nothing out of the usual hiccups up and down. Therefore I believe that semi-numis and numis will out perform bullion coins in general in investment opportunity / gain.

That said, I am not opposed to the purchase of bullion...just that it won't perform as well for the foreseeable future in my moderately informed view.
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I am into my 13th year of buying. And judging what I paid for gold 13 years ago we already have a fiat dollar collapse. We are now squabbling over the last 10% of dollar value. Like all exponential events collapse will happen fast and I don't think the US will have any say on the events that follow.

Precise timing is hard, but if you recognise that the debt (official, excluding all unfounded liabilities) will be 20T next year and probably 30T in 2 years you will see this has not long to go. You need to understand that the US government does not use GAP accounting and so their 1T deficit is really 3-4T. How long can this go on?
 
Thanks for your response Ronnie. I have learned a lot from the doomsdayers but the one thing that they have never explained with any meaningful or credible argument is why, at 10B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 100B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 1T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 2T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 5T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 10T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 20T there's no evidence to support the cookie crumbling? And I'll bet that way back at 10B, there were doomsdayers spewing the warnings that we can't sustain this level of debt for much longer and the shit will hit the fan.

So, what is the exact and specific mathematics that leads you to believe that we are at the precipice of the cookie crumbling?
 
Near 0% interest rates means that the USA can borrow at the moment.

It needs more $ than tax provides so it has to sell bonds to fund the excess so therefore each year ATM it has to sell 1T in bonds..

The problem is who is buying the bonds? Treasury needs more $, rings the Federal Reserve bank who puts the cr in the banks' books who then buy the bonds.

If no other country is buying US bonds at low interest rates but the government still has $ to finance its operations.

All the major banks in the world are heavily into Derivatives WHICH IS A WHOLE NEW BALL GAME.

Fractional Reserve Banking is no longer the main income earner for banks, but derivatives sure in the mix.

Now how much is invested in derivatives?

One bank goes down trading derivatives then the whole lot will go down as derivatives is like comparing Crown Casino with a two up game on Anzac day.

Derivatives is the BIG PLAYER IN TODAYS FINANCIAL WORLD, and it is measured in amounts of $ that make FRB look like small change.

So I too am worried about collapse but I doubt if it happens soon that not too many people will have seen the semi coming.

Regards Errol 43
 
mmissinglink said:
Thanks for your response Ronnie. I have learned a lot from the doomsdayers but the one thing that they have never explained with any meaningful or credible argument is why, at 10B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 100B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 1T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 2T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 5T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 10T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 20T there's no evidence to support the cookie crumbling? And I'll bet that way back at 10B, there were doomsdayers spewing the warnings that we can't sustain this level of debt for much longer and the shit will hit the fan.

So, what is the exact and specific mathematics that leads you to believe that we are at the precipice of the cookie crumbling?
Click to expand...

Fiat money is a confidence game. As the debt piles up and money is printed in ever increasing amounts the risk of losing confidence in the dollar grows. This is all to do with human behaviour not computers. With 6T of freshly printed $ a year the risk of collapse is enormous. Yes $6T. This is going to happen soon. By soon I mean within 5 years.
 
^^What is the derivatives from major banks betting on..

World GDP 16T. Maybe they are betting 70T on the US GOING UNDER?

Regards Errol 43
 
mmissinglink said:
Thanks for your response Ronnie. I have learned a lot from the doomsdayers but the one thing that they have never explained with any meaningful or credible argument is why, at 10B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 100B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 1T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 2T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 5T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 10T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 20T there's no evidence to support the cookie crumbling? And I'll bet that way back at 10B, there were doomsdayers spewing the warnings that we can't sustain this level of debt for much longer and the shit will hit the fan.

So, what is the exact and specific mathematics that leads you to believe that we are at the precipice of the cookie crumbling?
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You raise a very salient point mmissinglink. It's always good to keep asking one's self these questions...and if you can no longer find a good answer, rethink your strategy.

For me the reason I think we're on the edge (and have been since it began) is all the money printing going on.

Just focusing on the US for a second (because all the major developed nations are engaging in currency debasement is some way or another) Richard Daughty has pointed out (and echoed by Mike Maloney) that the US is only doing this (printing) because they're in a crisis (and as the worlds largest economy,that means we're all at risk too). The US is behaving like a Tin Pot Little African Country or South American Dictatorship and we've seen time and again what happens when a country tries to print its way out of trouble. It has a 100% failure rate and it "always ends very, VERY badly".

I suspect that without printing close to $1T/year (or effectively doubling the currency supply in 5 years (also halving spending power :/ ) we would see the true state of the US economy i.e. it's in severe recession....and on the edge of depression.

I suspect the cookie has already crumbled...but it's fallen into the tea we've been dunking it in :P
 
Ronnie 666 said:
mmissinglink said:
I am only a year into buying and I have seen no difference at all with what any of the 25 or so dealers I monitor sell or what is being sold on eBay. A year ago, just as many color and proof coins were being sold as today.

It's very unlikely that there will be a US dollar collapse for a very, very long time. I believe it's possible that the BRICS nations will produce their own unified currency some day and the US $ will not play second fiddle to it.....or at least not for a very long time.

What does that mean for pm's? General stability in spot price variation....nothing out of the usual hiccups up and down. Therefore I believe that semi-numis and numis will out perform bullion coins in general in investment opportunity / gain.

That said, I am not opposed to the purchase of bullion...just that it won't perform as well for the foreseeable future in my moderately informed view.
Click to expand...

I am into my 13th year of buying. And judging what I paid for gold 13 years ago we already have a fiat dollar collapse. We are now squabbling over the last 10% of dollar value. Like all exponential events collapse will happen fast and I don't think the US will have any say on the events that follow.

Precise timing is hard, but if you recognise that the debt (official, excluding all unfounded liabilities) will be 20T next year and probably 30T in 2 years you will see this has not long to go. You need to understand that the US government does not use GAP accounting and so their 1T deficit is really 3-4T. How long can this go on?
Click to expand...


Ronnie, where in the world are you getting 30T in two years? That is next to impossible, even in these insane times. Despite one of our worst governments in the last few decades, our deficit is going down. Why? Because of the fracking process. The US is trending towards energy independence and is or will become the world's largest oil producer. Huge game changer. As a result, the deficit is projecting to be 700B. So, how are you getting $10T added to the deficit in only two years?

Btw, I don't even see how you are getting $20T next year.
 
Ronnie 666 said:
mmissinglink said:
Thanks for your response Ronnie. I have learned a lot from the doomsdayers but the one thing that they have never explained with any meaningful or credible argument is why, at 10B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 100B the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 1T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 2T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 5T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 10T the cookie didn't crumble, why, at 20T there's no evidence to support the cookie crumbling? And I'll bet that way back at 10B, there were doomsdayers spewing the warnings that we can't sustain this level of debt for much longer and the shit will hit the fan.

So, what is the exact and specific mathematics that leads you to believe that we are at the precipice of the cookie crumbling?
Click to expand...

Fiat money is a confidence game. As the debt piles up and money is printed in ever increasing amounts the risk of losing confidence in the dollar grows. This is all to do with human behaviour not computers. With 6T of freshly printed $ a year the risk of collapse is enormous. Yes $6T. This is going to happen soon. By soon I mean within 5 years.
Click to expand...



But that's just your feelings (that at 6T is the point where confidence will dramatically shift)...there's no hard facts at all to back those feelings up. Using your reasoning, one could just as easily argue that the tipping point is 90T.

I was hoping that your answer would give specifics.


.
 
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