Pay now or risk price increase?

A

anomeric

New Member
Hey all,

So the dealer I've found in Germany doesn't have any room in their export cap for this year. They've given me two options:

1) Pay now, lock in the price and they'll ship on the first day of next year.
2) Wait and place the order next year and they'll ship right away.

Obviously, both options mean I won't get my Maples and ASE's until next year. My concern is I might pay 29 a coin for something that is worth 26 (or less) when it arrives. Whereas, if I take option 2, at least I can make an informed decision at the time. Obviously, prices could also rise, meaning I'll kick myself then too.

What would you guys do?
 
This is basically a question if the price will be lower or higher by then.
If that had a sure answer now, everybody would either selling either buying now.
If you have no idea about where the silver price will be driven to by then, better don't buy silver at all. Sounds hard, but that's how it is, especially on the silver market. Just look at the high red candlesticks on the price chart. You can easily throw away decades inflation protection, by paying too much for silver. Sticking to a bank account is then a smaller loss.
 
JulieW said:
I would shop locally.
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The price difference is huge between the UK and Germany. I'm planning to buy 20oz (10xMaples and 10xASEs), and even with the exchange rate, cost of bank transfer and shipping, it still works out about 100 cheaper to buy it in Europe.
 
Pirocco said:
This is basically a question if the price will be lower or higher by then.
If that had a sure answer now, everybody would either selling either buying now.
If you have no idea about where the silver price will be driven to by then, better don't buy silver at all. Sounds hard, but that's how it is, especially on the silver market. Just look at the high red candlesticks on the price chart. You can easily throw away decades inflation protection, by paying too much for silver. Sticking to a bank account is then a smaller loss.
Click to expand...

Personally I don't think the silver price is going to change massively in the next month. My plan is to hold it for a long time anyway, so even if it does change by a couple of $/oz (which would be quite a large change anyway), it shouldn't make a difference in the long-term.

I just wanted to get the opinion of those more experienced.

Sorry for double post - I don't seem to be able to edit my posts.
 
anomeric said:
Personally I don't think the silver price is going to change massively in the next month. My plan is to hold it for a long time anyway, so even if it does change by a couple of $/oz (which would be quite a large change anyway), it shouldn't make a difference in the long-term.

I just wanted to get the opinion of those more experienced.

Sorry for double post - I don't seem to be able to edit my posts.
Click to expand...
I also don't think the price will change alot in coming months. Due to the current dollar/euro situation. If the euro would weaken, it would again close in to the multiyears low it reached early august. They won't allow that, and if needed they will weaken the dollar to make sure.

About a couple $/oz, keep in mind that even (and especially!) on the long term, a change of 10% matters. How much % does a bank savings account give? One? Two? That's thus 5 years intrest on a bank account. I see alot times people saying that in the long term a couple $ don't matter, but it's the opposite, if you plan to buy and hold longterm, every cent matters. It's only for those that sell/buy back in/sell/buy back in, that a couple $'s dont matter, it's the relative price that counts for them, not the absolute (relative to zero) as an inflation hedge.

About German dealers, did you try other? This summer I tried one, failed due to the mentioned limit, but I found another that apparently didnt ran into limit.
I wonder the details about those limits. Is the amount specified per month? Year? Is the reset at new year? Is the period start/end the same for all dealers?
 
What would you guys do?

There will always be bargains in precious metal.

Id prefer to buy from someone who delivers fast.

You could use Silver Price archives to assist, just tick the months you are interested in.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html

Keep your eyes open on ebay for a bargain, sometimes people go on holidays and bids can be lower. :)

H
 
There is no rush to buy silver, it isn't in a shortage, it isn't going to the moon and it isn't bargain basement prices either.

It probably won't make much difference either way.

At least if you pay next year the money will have a few extra weeks to gain interest, not that that is going to make you rich!

Jump on the Eurostar to France, load up on silver, get some duty free booze and fags for Christmas at the same time, stop off in the giant supermarkets in Calais and get all your shopping done at the same time.

I don't know any silver dealers in France but there must be some!
 
anomeric said:
What would you guys do?
Click to expand...

Put simply : Think for yourself

You'll get all sorts of advice here on SS on where to place your chips. Just because we're stackers on SS, doesn't mean we share the same mindset or for that matter, stack for the same reasons.

The advice you'll get here will honestly be no better than doing your own due dilligence and forming your own opinion.

Personally though, I'm a long physical, net buyer of silver and gold for as long as I can be because I've done my own due dilligence on the subject matter.

I really don't give a shit what people have to say because I followed my first rule - think for yourself.
 
fishball said:
Jislizard said:
There is no rush to buy silver, it isn't in a shortage, it isn't going to the moon and it isn't bargain basement prices either.
Click to expand...

YKY says: -1
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YKY says -1 to just about everything I say anyway :)

Getting lots of advice before making a decision is part of doing your own due diligence, you don't have to follow each bit of advice but it is good to know other people's thought processes and what makes them tick.

When you come into the hobby from nothing you have the opportunity of making many mistakes, by getting some advice you can avoid many of them.
 
If you pay now to lock in price for delivery at a later date, you are effectively entering a naked long futures contract.... :D

Interesting how paper trading works..... :cool:
 
wrcmad said:
If you pay now to lock in price for delivery at a later date, you are effectively entering a naked long futures contract.... :D

Interesting how paper trading works..... :cool:
Click to expand...
There is a difference that seriously matters though, a real futures position comes with a margin account where your gain/loss is updated / thus materializes at every price move. In this dealer order case the gain/loss only materializes when he sells. Before that moment, he loses or gains nothing.
 
errol43 said:
Play safe. 50/50..

Regards Errol 43
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I certainly agree with this. Cover yourself on both ends.

I am not a big fan of purchasing bulk for the best (and only) reason is that markets are completely unpredictable. As soon as you put that order in for $5k worth of silver, we may have a $1.00 pullback, and you WILL be kicking yourself. Spread it out, reduce the risk.
 
Pirocco said:
. . . In this dealer order case the gain/loss only materializes when he sells. Before that moment, he loses or gains nothing.
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Rubbish. This is a fallacy and is simply denial.
A gain or loss is taken regardless of whether or not you have sold.
A loss in purchasing power is a financial loss measured in any unit you like.
If you refuse to believe this, and only consider losses real when materialised in fiat, then why bother stacking?
Ask yourself this - Are gains in the value or purchasing power of your physical silver imaginary too?
 
wrcmad said:
If you pay now to lock in price for delivery at a later date, you are effectively entering a naked long futures contract.... :D

Interesting how paper trading works..... :cool:
Click to expand...

not really, cos unlike the paper poofters you'll actually be taking delivery :lol:
 
anomeric said:
JulieW said:
I would shop locally.
Click to expand...

The price difference is huge between the UK and Germany. I'm planning to buy 20oz (10xMaples and 10xASEs), and even with the exchange rate, cost of bank transfer and shipping, it still works out about 100 cheaper to buy it in Europe.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I thought you were in Oz.
UK VAT on silver is immoral, but then again so is most of British banking and political life.
HSBC just got fined around 2 billion for laundering drug cartel and war lord cash. No-one goes to Jail though. Just the cost of business.

Other answer. Pay on the day they have stock.
 
Yippe-Ki-Ya said:
wrcmad said:
If you pay now to lock in price for delivery at a later date, you are effectively entering a naked long futures contract.... :D

Interesting how paper trading works..... :cool:
Click to expand...

not really, cos unlike the paper poofters you'll actually be taking delivery :lol:
Click to expand...

Delivery has nothing to do with it (though you have that option with futures if you want). It's the forward purchase or sale at an agreed price and date that defines a futures trade. :P

:lol: BTW, I thought it was paper pansies? :lol:
 
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