Paper Panzies Warn of End of Gold Bull Run

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Gold is undergoing a correction on the weekly chart. Declining momentum and breach of the long-term rising trendline suggest that the 5-year bull-trend is ending, but recovery above $1700 per ounce would indicate one more attempt at $1800 resistance. Respect of $1700, however, would indicate a test of primary support at the May 2012 low at $1525.

 

[Dustin]

Seems to be the breaking point...we either break through $1700 and resume the bull market, or bounce off it and hope for some cheap buys again. I seriously doubt this is the end of the bull run..but what do I know? I'm just a card flippin' button pusher.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Are you on drugs yip?

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

yeh it's just scary to think that if gold does not breach the $1700 mark that we could be languishing in the doldrums for many more months, or possibly even years!

Great if you still can buy more tin, but not so great if you need to liquidate some.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Are you on drugs yip?

lol! why??

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Are you on drugs yip?

lol! why??

You referring to a chart lol
Re your liquidation sentiment, I guess thars why it is always prudent to consider cash flow when investing capital

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Are you on drugs yip?

lol! why??

You referring to a chart lol
Re your liquidation sentiment, I guess thars why it is always prudent to consider cash flow when investing capital

lol - yeh i'm trying to keep an open mind lately so been trying to see things from the panzie's perspective as well :lol:
As you mentioned before - i may even try to become one myself, or at the very least learn their language and see if i can use some of this stuff to improve my financial future

 

[Dustin]

Bad time to jump into paper, IMHO. Do your research first, that's for sure.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Bad time to jump into paper, IMHO. Do your research first, that's for sure.

I agree completely. But it may help me understand when buying opportunities exist (pullbacks) for future PM purchases.
Also when good opportunities for liquidation are.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

@yip, I am considering it to.

A weekend seminar at $50 per head in cash or an Ag rate by one of the relevant Panzies here at a local pub could be good little money spinner for them, I've got a venue, free of charge as long as I get in for free, trouble is travel to here is a bit of a prob

 

[Dogmatix]

Bad time to jump into paper, IMHO. Do your research first, that's for sure.

I agree completely. But it may help me understand when buying opportunities exist (pullbacks) for future PM purchases.
Also when good opportunities for liquidation are.

Do you think charts will predict when S will HTF?

High chance of a 'caught with pants down' moment if you liquidate when charts tell you too. Keep in mind that a lot of the trades that determine spot are doubtlessly speculative futures trades that have little insight on whether a crash is coming and just react to benign market events like Fed minutes.

What did PMs do immediately before GFC?
What did banks stocks do?

IMO you're looking at a lag indicator masquerading as a lead indicator.

 

[Lunarowl]

IMO you're looking at a lag indicator masquerading as a lead indicator.

History does have a nasty habit of repeating itself..

 

[finicky]

Gold is undergoing a correction on the weekly chart. Declining momentum and breach of the long-term rising trendline suggest that the 5-year bull-trend is ending...................

They've got Twiggsy and plenty of other clowns (lol). We've got Silversale and BBaron.

Yeah well all charting has a subjective aspect and I wouldn't necessarily draw the rising support trendline where he has, and therefore might not get the penetration to the downside that he shows. What if I chose a slightly different combination of lows, or what if i used closing prices? He'd have to give you a good argument as to why he drew that particular trendline. Even the characterization of the last 5 years as a bull market - Do you feel like its been in a bull market until now? I thought we'd been having a major correction.

Put a ruler under the June and July lows of this closing prices chart

 

[honey stacker]

High chance of a 'caught with pants down' moment if you liquidate when charts tell you too. Keep in mind that a lot of the trades that determine spot are doubtlessly speculative futures trades that have little insight on whether a crash is coming.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBFK1UijugI[/youtube]

 

[Guest]

This ones for you Yip.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DppUNYpNAUE[/youtube]

 

[Dogmatix]

IMO you're looking at a lag indicator masquerading as a lead indicator.

History does have a nasty habit of repeating itself..

I guess it depends on your timeframe.

How many chartists predicted the GFC?

Yet we could easily argue the GFC was predictable, based on economic theory and past events.

However, I do think my point is only relevant to SHTF scenarios, not normal trading. Charts certainly have their uses (but also their biases as Finicky pointed out nicely).

It depends why you're stacking really, and whether you care about this 'SHTF' thing or just want to play the market.

 

[Lovey80]

I know I have been bashed for it in the past but I still maintain that it is highlY likely that gold and silver will crash again at the start of the next event. I'll put a caveat to that and say that the only exception to this is if for some reason the next event is the dumping of the USD as the worlds reserve currency.

The reason I say that is, even though I know it is mental and shouldn't be this way, the fact is, the big big money that really controls our markets will want USD when the next event happens. The sell off will be just like the last one, with the big money selling everything and waiting for the dust to settle. Dictated by paper wether I like it or not, gold and silver are no exception.

While YKY and others have said many times: "good luck purchasing physical when that happens". Well it is a valid point and certainly one to consider. However, it didn't happen last time in 2008, and until someone shows me a piece of crucial evidence that shows me that getting physical will be impossible next time, I won't be "all in". Preferring to use my fiat to create more fiat keeping my powder dry for such an event.

 

[Yippe-Ki-Ya]

Bad time to jump into paper, IMHO. Do your research first, that's for sure.

I agree completely. But it may help me understand when buying opportunities exist (pullbacks) for future PM purchases.
Also when good opportunities for liquidation are.

Do you think charts will predict when S will HTF?

Def not!

High chance of a 'caught with pants down' moment if you liquidate when charts tell you too. Keep in mind that a lot of the trades that determine spot are doubtlessly speculative futures trades that have little insight on whether a crash is coming and just react to benign market events like Fed minutes.

i fully agree. I'd probably use charts more for finding good times to buy in future. Selling physical is not something i'd do unless i absolutely need the cash for something.

What did PMs do immediately before GFC?
What did banks stocks do?

they went UP UP UP ...

IMO you're looking at a lag indicator masquerading as a lead indicator.

Agree

 

[finicky]

Why listen to Twiggsy on Gold?

Herewith a densely documented argument that I don't think is too unfair as to why a goldbug shouldn't take his gold pronouncements too seriously - he's a highly active short term trader

Trolling around I got this blog submission from him dated 15 April 2011:

Gold Target : By Colin Twiggs
Gold respected support at $1450, confirming the breakout and (medium-term) advance to $1500*.
The long-term target is 1550*. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) holding above zero indicates trend strength.

http://potsupdate.blogspot.com.au/2011/04/gold-tgt-by-colin-twiggs.html

I quote: "The long-term target is 1550", lol need I say more. Maybe yes ...

Below is a 2 year gold chart in USD, and by peering in you can see the point at which he was saying "Gold respected support at $1450". There it is, in the middle of the period on the x-axis marked April.

You can see the price did reach his medium term target of $1500, but fact is, it went more than two times higher than his target rally to $1575 (start of May). Then it plunged to almost meet his support again at $1450 (about $1460 actually). From his dated comment you can see he made money on the trade - he's a successful trader coach and newsletter publisher. But to him on his working time scale a long term target for gold was $1550. A mere four months later gold was at an all time high of $1900! But 4 months, that's beyond a short term trader's scope for practical purposes.

 

[wrcmad]

IMO you're looking at a lag indicator masquerading as a lead indicator.

History does have a nasty habit of repeating itself..

I guess it depends on your timeframe.

How many chartists predicted the GFC?

I don't get to say this very often, but I did.

I did a group presentation in Sep 2006 which depicted the impending 50% retracement of the All Ords which was due at any time. I was scoffed at by the majority of the group - who were caught up in the heard metality of the bull market and were buying hand over fist. Apparently a 50% retracement was virtually impossible. :lol:

I was always a huge share bull, but the charts signalled me to bail out in July 2007. I pulled out everything (multiple 6 figure sum + all my super), I was close but I was 6 months early. At the end of 2007 I watched the market plummet and did not lose a cent.

Stayed on the sidelines for nearly exactly 12 months and then piled back in - watched my stake double in size for the following 12 months. This was one of my most profitable moves ever in share trading.