Opposite View of Precious Metal Bugs.

oh dear.. im starting to think your auspm rejoined with a different ip adress with all the links you post to prove a point .

You know what i meant . The concept of insurance is what ML has been debating with you guys for days . ...I have to say imo hes correct.

edit : you guys will split an atom to prove a point
 
renovator said:
... with all the links you post to prove a point .

You know what i meant . The concept of insurance is what ML has been debating with you guys for days . ...I have to say imo hes correct.

edit : you guys will split an atom to prove a point
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The concepts are very clearly defined. ML is wrong. There's no "splitting atoms".

And if links aren't provided you'd claim there are no citations, and when citations are provided you complain about "proving a point".

Next up, claims of a global conspiracy by financial industry academics.
 
If your insurance company has a history of not honoring claims, does that make it a gamble?
 
House burns , cars wrecked, cancer strikes ........ Ill be very glad I have insurance. SHTF No insurance available that I know of for that but wait isn't that what Derivs are for? lol. Anyways if SHTF few here won't be glad they have their stack.
 
I think most SHTF scenarios in Australia will be floods, droughts, cyclones or bushfires, doesn't matter what our politicians get up to they are nowhere near as dangerous to Australia as the weather is. The whole country is biblical!

Most of my preps are more towards a short problem with a short recovery, and cash will be king then, even if the networks are down and the banks shut, a handful of dollars will get you further than a handful of silver.

It is only in a financial SHTF that my silver might help, and that could be a long slow decent and a long slow recovery.
 
Peter said:
So insurance must give a 100% guarantee against loss, otherwise its speculation.
Click to expand...


Insurance has implied guarantee. What use is insurance if there is no guarantee?

Home owners in the US who are homeowner-insured are guaranteed coverage for the loss that is specifically delineated in the contract. If we weren't guaranteed that coverage, there would be no reason to buy home owners insurance.

Since the value of silver blobs can not be guaranteed at all times, my silver blobs and your silver blobs are not insurance.


.
 
GvBasically, insure, ensure, and assure mean to make a person or thing more sure. Insure should be restricted to providing or obtaining insurance to indemnify or guarantee someone or something against a loss. Ensure can be used in all ot

So PMs ensures a better chance of survival in chaos.
Yes?
Just nitpicking of definition.
To try and imply that PMs are not a good bet in chaos

Common usage is different.
Just a pedant.
 
SilverPete said:
The Crow said:
One concern that I have in regards to "if fiat collapses" is just what does the market I'm going to try to sell my PM into, going to look like.
...just wondering what others are thinking under some of these future scenarios......
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Ideally, excess wealth in the form of PMs would be held through the period of turmoil, and when stability returned you would exchange them for the new currency as required when trust is restored. In this scenario, PMs are acting as a basic store of value* as they have done in the past. Assuming you had forewarning of a collapse, you'd likely be prepared with other suitable assets and easily tradable items to get you through.

Focusing on one possible scenario -- rapid erosion of the value of a local currency:

Does Gold Keep Up In Hyperinflation?

..."Confidence" is the key word here. Fiat money holds its purchasing power largely on the belief that it is stable and will preserve that power over time. Once this trust is broken, a flight from the currency ensues. In such scenarios, citizens spend the money as quickly as possible, typically buying tangible items in a desperate attempt to get rid of currency units before they lose value. This process increases the velocity of money, setting off a vicious cycle that destroys purchasing power faster and faster.

The most famous case of hyperinflation is the one that occurred in Germany during the Weimar Republic, from January 1919 until November 1923. According to Investopedia, "the average price level increased by a factor of 20 billion, doubling every 28 hours."

One would expect gold to fare well during such an extreme circumstance, and it did in German marks, quite dramatically. In January 1919, one ounce of gold traded for 170 marks; by November 1923, that same ounce was worth 87 trillion marks. Take a look.

http://i.imgur.com/0D4GfSS.jpg

Inflation was at first benign, then began to grow rapidly, and quickly became a monster. What's important to us as investors is that the price of gold grew faster than the rate of monetary inflation. The data here reveal that over this five-year period, the gold price increased 1.8 times more than the inflation rate.

The implication of this is sobering: while hyperinflation wiped out most people's savings, turning wealthy citizens into poor ones literally overnight, those who had assets denominated in gold experienced no loss in purchasing power. In fact, their ability to purchase goods and services grew beyond the runaway prices they saw all around them.
One can't help but wonder how the people whose wealth evaporated in Germany during this time felt. In effect, they were robbed by the government they were on the losing end of a massive transfer of wealth. Of course, there are two sides to the story, as those who held significant amounts of gold and silver were the recipients
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More: http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/does-gold-keep-hyperinflation
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*Store of value in this case is defined as:

Any form of commodity, asset, or money that has value and can be stored and retrieved over time. Possessing a store of value is an underlying basis for any economic system, as some medium is necessary for a store of value in order for individuals to engage in the exchange of goods and services. As long as a currency is relatively stable in its value, money (such as a dollar bill) is the most common and efficient store of value found in an economy.

Investopedia explains 'Store Of Value'

What is considered a store of value can be markedly different from one region of the world to another. In truth, any physical asset can be considered a store of value under the right circumstances, or when a base level of demand is believed to exist.

In most of the world's advanced economies, the local currency can be counted on as a store of value in all but the worst case scenarios. However, currency can sometimes come under attack as a store of value (such as in hyperinflation). In those instances, other stores of value have proved their consistency over time, such as gold, silver, real estate and art. The price of gold, in particular, will often skyrocket during times of national peril or when a financial shock hits the broad markets, as demand grows for other widely recognized stores of value.

While the relative value of these items will fluctuate over time, they can be counted on to retain some value in almost any scenario, especially in those cases where the store of value has a finite supply (like gold).

From: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/storeofvalue.asp
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How did silver perform during the same period? The same as gold?
 
Technical usage:

* Gambling: introduces risk where none exists.
* Speculation: taking on existing risk (in expectation of substantial gain)
* Insurance: mitigates risk where risk exists.

simply...

* If I flip you a coin for your stack, I am gambling.
* If I buy silver expecting it will go to the moon, it is speculating.
* If I add silver to my portfolio as protection against the risk of a potential financial crisis, it is insurance.
 
Cheepo said:
How did silver perform during the same period? The same as gold?
Click to expand...

Here you go... and thanks to this I will new be able to make fun of Pirocco again :P

Hyperinflation: Wiemar, Germany January 1919 to November 1923
Expressed in German Marks needed to by an oz. of ag. or au

Jan. 1919
Silver 12
Gold 170

May. 1919
Silver 17
Gold 267

Sept. 1919
Silver 31
Gold 499

Jan. 1920
Silver 84
Gold 1,340

May 1920
Silver 60
Gold 966

Sept. 1921
Silver 80
Gold 2,175

Jan. 1922
Silver 249
Gold 3,976

May. 1922
Silver 375
Gold 6,012

Sept. 1922
Silver 1899
Gold 30,381

Jan. 1923
Silver 23,277
Gold 372,447

May. 1923
Silver 44,397
Gold 710,355

June 5, 1923
Silver 80,953
Gold 1,295,256

July 3, 1923
Silver 207,239
Gold 3,315,831

Aug. 7, 1923
Silver 4,273,874
Gold 68,382,000

Sept. 4, 1923
Silver 16,839,937
Gold 269,429,000

Oct. 2, 1923
Silver 414,484,000
Gold 6,631,749,000

Oct. 9, 1923
Silver 1,554,309,000
Gold 24,868,950,000

Oct. 16, 1923
Silver 5,319,567,000
Gold 84,969,072,000

Oct. 23, 1923
Silver 7,253,460,000
Gold 1,160,552,662,000

Oct. 30, 1923
Silver 8,419,200,000
Gold 1,347,070,000,000

Nov. 5, 1923
Silver 54,375,000,000
Gold 8,700,000,000,000

Nov. 13, 1923
Silver 108,750,000,000
Gold 17,400,000,000,000

Nov. 30, 1923
Silver 543,750,000,000
Gold 87,000,000,000,000
 
Jan. 1919 GSR
Silver 12 1:15
Gold 170

May. 1919
Silver 17 1:16
Gold 267

Sept. 1919
Silver 31 1:17
Gold 499

Jan. 1920
Silver 84 1:16
Gold 1340

May 1920
Silver 60 1:17
Gold 966

Sept. 1921
Silver 80 1:28
Gold 2175

Jan. 1922
Silver 249 1:16
Gold 3976

May. 1922
Silver 375 1:17
Gold 6012

Sept. 1922
Silver 1899 1:16
Gold 30381

Jan. 1923
Silver 23277 1:17
Gold 372447

May. 1923
Silver 44397 1:17
Gold 710355

June 5, 1923
Silver 80953 1:17
Gold 1295256

July 3, 1923
Silver 207239 1:17
Gold 3315831

Aug. 7, 1923
Silver 4273874 1:17
Gold 68382000

Sept. 4, 1923
Silver 16839937 1:16
Gold 269429000

Oct. 2, 1923
Silver 414484000 1:17
Gold 6631749000

Oct. 9, 1923
Silver 1554309000 1:17
Gold 24868950000

Oct. 16, 1923
Silver 5319567000 1:16
Gold 84969072000

Oct. 23, 1923
Silver 7253460000 1:160
Gold 1160552662000

Oct. 30, 1923
Silver 8419200000 1:160
Gold 1347070000000

Nov. 5, 1923
Silver 54375000000 1:160
Gold 8700000000000

Nov. 13, 1923
Silver 108750000000 1:160
Gold 17400000000000

Nov. 30, 1923
Silver 543750000000 1:160
Gold 87000000000000
 
Jislizard said:
What?! no GSR values, do you expect me to do maths?!
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Thanks for doing the maths :)

The GSR really went crazy there from October 1923!

Edit: I wonder if an extra zero has been added somewhere?
 
Yep, I had to double check that!

Might put a bit more into gold, just in case.

Edit: I checked off your original values to make sure I hadn't added one in the spreadsheet with all the cut and pasteing, seems right there so any error would be from the original source.
 
Jislizard said:
Yep, I had to double check that!

Might put a bit more into gold, just in case.
Click to expand...
Since Germany there have been heaps of hyperinflation events. For the more recent ones, it would be interesting to find the gold and silver prices denominated in these currencies to see if the relationship still holds.
 
SilverPete said:
Technical usage:

* Gambling: introduces risk where none exists.
* Speculation: taking on existing risk (in expectation of substantial gain)
* Insurance: mitigates risk where risk exists.

simply...

* If I flip you a coin for your stack, I am gambling.
* If I buy silver expecting it will go to the moon, it is speculating.
* If I add silver to my portfolio as protection against the risk of a potential financial crisis, it is insurance.
Click to expand...




You are definitely wrong in my eyes and I am wrong in your eyes. Apparently that isn't going to change (since you are unwilling to comes to terms with the truth :) ) so we can both spare wasting each other's time if we can agree to disagree.

Enjoy the day.



.
 
mmissinglink said:
SilverPete said:
* Gambling: introduces risk where none exists.
* Speculation: taking on existing risk (in expectation of substantial gain)
* Insurance: mitigates risk where risk exists.
simply...
* If I flip you a coin for your stack, I am gambling.
* If I buy silver expecting it will go to the moon, it is speculating.
* If I add silver to my portfolio as protection against the risk of a potential financial crisis, it is insurance.
Click to expand...
You are definitely wrong ... you are unwilling to comes to terms with the truth :) ) so we can both spare wasting each other's time if we can agree to disagree.
Click to expand...
But... I'm willing to change my mind if you can provide a verifiable counter argument. I'm assuming you agree with the standard definitions of speculation and insurance above. If not, then provide a citation that argues otherwise (no need to paste it here).

Where you seem to disagree is in the area of risk mitigation and guarantees.

Is it correct to say that your claim against silver being considered as insurance against a financial crises is that silver has no 100% guarantee of payout when needed, whereas insurance would absolutely provide that guarantee?
 
SilverPete said:
Technical usage:

* Gambling: introduces risk where none exists.
* Speculation: taking on existing risk (in expectation of substantial gain)
* Insurance: mitigates risk where risk exists.

simply...

* If I flip you a coin for your stack, I am gambling.
* If I buy silver expecting it will go to the moon, it is speculating.
* If I add silver to my portfolio as protection against the risk of a potential financial crisis, it is insurance.
Click to expand...
IMO, the assumption that silver will provide the risk mitigation or protection you assume is the speculation.
 
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