On PM pundits

J

Jim4silver

Well-Known Member
Although I don't believe much of what they say anymore, I still find myself reading many of the pro PM articles on sites like silverdoctors, Kingworld, etc. They always seem to have the same handful of pundits' articles on each respective site, and for the past few years, not many have made a correct call, at least that I could see.

My question to the many here is, do you think they lie or are they just bad at making calls? In the past I would have said for sure they just made bad calls, but some of these guys have great credentials and you would think they would have good "contacts" in the financial world. For example Jim Sinclair. I would hate to think these guys are intentionally misleading us and I still think they are just bad at making calls over the past few years, but I am starting to wonder.

Just wondering what the rest here think?

Just my opinion.

Jim
 
they can make money doing other things and still feel passionately about PM's eventually recovering. Their conviction is was powers them. Personally, I don't listen to them, anyone that tells you to buy in one direction is iffy in my book. It becomes like an addiction or something to prove they are right. I think they firmly believe what everyone else believes, but the market is not following them. Kinda like religion, eventually there will be a day of reckoning kind of thing.

I wouldn't follow what they say though because they are so blindly convinced they are right and in many ways, they are on principle. But when people and profit are involved, you never really know who to trust!
 
The only reality is your own. Many of us on the forum, "talk the talk", but on the whole we "walk the walk". I have only ever benifited from my stacking. I have an accumulated wealth that is consoling.
 
sammysilver said:
The only reality is your own. Many of us on the forum, "talk the talk", but on the whole we "walk the walk". I have only ever benifited from my stacking. I have an accumulated wealth that is consoling.
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I'm not poo pooing the owning of PM's. I have much of my $$$ tied up in them. I was asking about the pundits and their sincerity (or lack thereof). Stay on topic! j/k :D

Jim
 
I think some of them are lunch, as in out to lunch. Some have vested interested. And others are just a bit too early (as in years)...and they justify it saying, better to be 5 years too early 40.00 silver, rather than 1 minute too late - no bid. Lol.
 
My view would be they lie and do so for personal financial gain.
If it was just a case of "bad calls" then they would have no following.
They make the calls BUT also have their very well thought out rants to capture their given audiences and guide them to sink their money into the gurus given business or the guide them to somewhere else that the guru has a financial interest.
 
I reckon most of them are acting in good faith and are just too early.

Lets face it, virtually all Western goverments can't continue this deficit spending forever. Eventually something has to give.

Having said that, personally I think Harry Dent is closest to the mark. We will see more deflation first, before a final hyperinflation blow-ff.
 
Good question, Jim.

I believe some are lying and some aren't. Some of the lies are small some of them are very tall tales.

But I have no proof either way (whether some are not being honest or not), just an intuition.

In the end, the market listens to no pundits and we are ultimately responsible for our investment choices/purchases.



.
 
^^^ +1 on what mmissinglink said.

Plus it depends on what message you take away from each pundit. For example I know many here bag out Mike Maloney as a pumper, but I really respect the guy's high level, "big picture" analysis and opinions. But his short term predictions, not so much.
 
They are speculating that the US economy will totally collapse and the USdollar will be worthless or close to it so pms especially silver is be a better store of wealth for the impending collapse.

There is no chart to show the future only the past against the past and present , the fed may well be able to print money forever and a day leaving many pundits to have got it all wrong and continue to get it wrong.

The US total economy collapse is a theory that can only be judged on the past not the future.

USA economy will not collapse just as the UK economy will never collapse, you see they are one and the same and rule this world! What they cannot have they will just take and nobody can stop them.

Good news for most of us though even though we like to believe otherwise. :)
 
Jim4silver, I'm convinced that crowd believe what they say, their timing for buying metal is aweful but, a person shold imo diversify into bars and bullion coins.

I really don't listen to any of those folk you have listed, I use too but now I do my own thing.

Follow history.

Follow the charts.

Look at how much money has been printed.

Look at individual and your countries debt.

Look at who is buying gold?

Look at the worlds problems.

The market, just not the precious metal market but all markets will provide a lifetime of surprises...good and bad. :)
 
Jim4silver said:
My question to the many here is, do you think they lie or are they just bad at making calls?
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They simply have an agenda and/or belief in PM's. All their "calls" are biased by that.
No one is consistently good at making calls, in any finance related field let alone PM's.
Sure, some people called the GFC, and some called a few more than that. But that's inevitable given statistics and enough pundits. Doesn't make them any better than anyone else at any future call.
 
sterling-nz said:
My view would be they lie and do so for personal financial gain.
If it was just a case of "bad calls" then they would have no following.
They make the calls BUT also have their very well thought out rants to capture their given audiences and guide them to sink their money into the gurus given business or the guide them to somewhere else that the guru has a financial interest.
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100% agree.
They lie in the interests of their cause.
It is not a case "bad calls" - they purposefully misstate the facts and misinform - facts that any "expert" worth a pinch of shyte should know.
The best examples of their blatant lies relate to COMEX default, futures markets, physical supply & price detachment, backwardation, money supply, and hyperinflation - and without these falsities, they have nothing.
 
The problem is that a lot of these individuals have significant stakes in precious metal dealers, Peter Schiff for instance. He is never going to say NOT to buy gold, because that goes against his base instincts to promote his own business.

You need to find people that actually weren't shilling for Gold or Silver after 2011, because they recognized it as a bad play.
 
Jim Rogers is one who said to hold off buying Gold. Seems like he always has something interesting to say and does not seem to be misleading anyone. I think he is the best but I still listen to others to see if I can pick up any truth in what they say. In the end it is all guesswork....

As for newspaper economists I don't think they actually know what they are talking about. If the did they would not be working for a newspaper.

Also newspapers seem to have an Agenda of running opposing viewpoints in the same week. Happens all the time, I don't take them or any other mainstream media seriously anymore.
 
Bastiat said:
Jim Rogers is one who said to hold off buying Gold. Seems like he always has something interesting to say and does not seem to be misleading anyone. I think he is the best but I still listen to others to see if I can pick up any truth in what they say. In the end it is all guesswork....

As for newspaper economists I don't think they actually know what they are talking about. If the did they would not be working for a newspaper.

Also newspapers seem to have an Agenda of running opposing viewpoints in the same week. Happens all the time, I don't take them or any other mainstream media seriously anymore.
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Jim Rogers has become over the past few years, one of the very few pundits to whom I can give any credit. His calls have been mostly correct from what I have seen.


Jim
 
Most are talking their book and should be avoided. Even the better ones, like Fleckenstein, can't be trusted. I read a KWN interview with Fleckenstein and then saw a different interview from the same time period on a mainstream news source. Totally different perspective given by Fleckenstein. He was hallelujah to the choir and let's have a drink to the bar crowd. Now that Richard Russell passed away, I don't trust any of the KWN interviewees.
 
they would all have been right to varying degrees (except perhaps for the timing part) if the markets were not totally corrupted. i.e.: rigged, manipulated.

people (and shills) always like to shoot the messengers trying to give the truth (think JFK, 9/11, etc) instead of examining the real reasons for their predictions being "wrong" (at the moment). instead people should be thoroughly examining and then attacking the utter criminality of the entire system and the scumbags who create it.
 
randomname said:
they would all have been right to varying degrees (except perhaps for the timing part) if the markets were not totally corrupted. i.e.: rigged, manipulated.

people (and shills) always like to shoot the messengers trying to give the truth (think JFK, 9/11, etc) instead of examining the real reasons for their predictions being "wrong" (at the moment). instead people should be thoroughly examining and then attacking the utter criminality of the entire system and the scumbags who create it.
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I question and examine ALL of it. I don't buy the whole "manipulation" is the entire cause of low PM prices argument though. Yes I believe there is manipulation and yes it has some effect, but the fact that you can go to your local coin store here in the US and buy silver for close to spot (paper spot that is) is enough to tell me the current price is real and not phony baloney. If you could not go to the local store and buy for close to spot (or online, etc) for a long period of time (more than a few weeks), then I would say yes the manipulation is the entire reason for the lower prices. By manipulation I am referring to paper markets and their rules that allow massive naked short selling of PM's, not nefarious plans hatched in the late of night, etc.

Available metal and at what price it's at is the ONLY litmus test that you can take to the bank. All else is opinion and theoretical, etc.

Just my opinion.

Jim
 
randomname said:
they would all have been right to varying degrees (except perhaps for the timing part) if the markets were not totally corrupted. i.e.: rigged, manipulated.
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Ironically, that is exactly the propaganda they shovel to explain why their delusional theories didn't eventuate.
 
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