Numi v Bullion - premiums

[Ausecon]

Hi all,

Something i've been thinking about for a while now, is if TSHTF or even if it doesn't and silver goes to 150/oz or whatever, will the premium associated with numi issues also rise similarly?

For example say you bought a 1oz kook for $45 with spot at say $30 (dummy numbers).

If silver goes to 150/oz (i.e. 5x the original), will the coin go to $225/oz or $165 (30x5 + 15).

I really have no idea, but suspect it might be somewhere in between.

Which begs the question, sentimental/collector value aside, are you better of minimising premiums paid as much as possible, and using the "saved" premium to buy more ounces. I.e. increasing your leverage to the silver price with the money you have available to buy silver.

Cheers

 

[thatguy]

IMHO IF shtf then numi premium will fall (not to 0 like some say). If silver goes to da moon expect counterfeit to be rampant and thus low mintage + coa would make it a very unlikely counterfeit target.

High on the list of potential targets in order would be buffalos, ASEs, Maples, libertads... but this is still future yet as of now it is not worth counterfeiting these coins

 

[Ausecon]

IMHO IF shtf then numi premium will fall (not to 0 like some say). If silver goes to da moon expect counterfeit to be rampant and thus low mintage + coa would make it a very unlikely counterfeit target.

High on the list of potential targets in order would be buffalos, ASEs, Maples, libertads... but this is still future yet as of now it is not worth counterfeiting these coins

Intuitively that is along the lines i'm thinking also. Premium will be there as there will always be collectors etc willing to pay more than spot, esp in low mintages as you say.

Thus my question is, in my example are you better off paying away the $15 in premium, or doubling down with more raw silver?

Obviously diversity and preference will play a part, but can anyone shed any light on how they balance their portfolio of raw bulliion vs numi coins with premium.

(might be in a previous thread so apologies if already discussed).

 

[thatguy]

IMHO IF shtf then numi premium will fall (not to 0 like some say). If silver goes to da moon expect counterfeit to be rampant and thus low mintage + coa would make it a very unlikely counterfeit target.

High on the list of potential targets in order would be buffalos, ASEs, Maples, libertads... but this is still future yet as of now it is not worth counterfeiting these coins

Intuitively that is along the lines i'm thinking also. Premium will be there as there will always be collectors etc willing to pay more than spot, esp in low mintages as you say.

Thus my question is, in my example are you better off paying away the $15 in premium, or doubling down with more raw silver?

Obviously diversity and preference will play a part, but can anyone shed any light on how they balance their portfolio of raw bulliion vs numi coins with premium.

(might be in a previous thread so apologies if already discussed).

Perfect balance for me is lunars>kooks as they would be a hard coin to counterfeit due to high detail, changing with year and fairly low mintage... no brainier really

 

[1for1]

IMHO IF shtf then numi premium will fall (not to 0 like some say). If silver goes to da moon expect counterfeit to be rampant and thus low mintage + coa would make it a very unlikely counterfeit target.

High on the list of potential targets in order would be buffalos, ASEs, Maples, libertads... but this is still future yet as of now it is not worth counterfeiting these coins

Intuitively that is along the lines i'm thinking also. Premium will be there as there will always be collectors etc willing to pay more than spot, esp in low mintages as you say.

Thus my question is, in my example are you better off paying away the $15 in premium, or doubling down with more raw silver?

Obviously diversity and preference will play a part, but can anyone shed any light on how they balance their portfolio of raw bulliion vs numi coins with premium.

(might be in a previous thread so apologies if already discussed).

Perfect balance for me is lunars>kooks as they would be a hard coin to counterfeit due to high detail, changing with year and fairly low mintage... no brainier really

Absolutley... also get pre-decimal stuff close to spot which is a perfect hedge of metal with numismatic.. but yeah limited mintage bullion is an auto-pilot sweet investment. Lunar and Kooks FTW!

1for1

 

[yennus]

I disagree, that you will lose your premiums on numis if silver hits $150/oz.

Historically for the past few years, when spot silver has shot up, the premiums on numis have not shrunk, they have instead increase.

Presently in many nations where the SHTF, precious metals are not the best investments to have, guns and food are. While I lived in Sudan, it wasn't gold or silver that people traded, it was ammo, guns and livestock.

Plus don't forget, Bullion doesn't increase in value, it merely preserves value.

Cash loses value.
Bullion preserves value.
Some numis increase value.

 

[thatguy]

I disagree, that you will lose your premiums on numis if silver hits $150/oz.

Historically for the past few years, when spot silver has shot up, the premiums on numis have not shrunk, they have instead increase.

Presently in many nations where the SHTF, precious metals are not the best investments to have, guns and food are. While I lived in Sudan, it wasn't gold or silver that people traded, it was ammo, guns and livestock.

Plus don't forget, Bullion doesn't increase in value, it merely preserves value.

Cash loses value.
Bullion preserves value.
Some numis increase value.

try carrying $50k worth of live stock/ammo/guns around in aus ... lol, now carrying 50k worth of gold ....easy. So PMs are portable, very important in uncertain times.

and this thing about not increasing in value... what exactly has it done over the last 5 years??? it certainly has not just preserved value.

food goes off! miss SHFT prediction by 18mo and its all down the drain or eat spam for a coupla months

Bullion is a currency just like all the rest, it comes in and out of favour and thus increases in decreases in value... our government managed to sell a lot of our gold when it was under valued, that is undebateable

 

[Photonaware]

Reckon the premium as a percentage over spot will always be there, so if spot doubles then the premium will also double.

 

[Lav]

I disagree, that you will lose your premiums on numis if silver hits $150/oz.

Historically for the past few years, when spot silver has shot up, the premiums on numis have not shrunk, they have instead increase.

Presently in many nations where the SHTF, precious metals are not the best investments to have, guns and food are. While I lived in Sudan, it wasn't gold or silver that people traded, it was ammo, guns and livestock.

Plus don't forget, Bullion doesn't increase in value, it merely preserves value.

Cash loses value.
Bullion preserves value.
Some numis increase value.

You are wrong, Silver has gone up around 800% in the last 10 years and Gold 500%. That is increasing value.
Also when fiat currency goes bust and no one has anything to trade with gold and silver will go up even more as people will be willing to pay exra money to get their hands on something that is liquid.

 

[knowles3]

i am not forseeing a mad max type scenario, so i think just as with everything people buy, there are some who will want a rarer or precieved higher quality version off the good, i believe gold and silver are no different, some numis will go up and some will bust, its a gamble, but the demand will always be there i think

 

[nicwinner]

I disagree, that you will lose your premiums on numis if silver hits $150/oz.

Historically for the past few years, when spot silver has shot up, the premiums on numis have not shrunk, they have instead increase.

Presently in many nations where the SHTF, precious metals are not the best investments to have, guns and food are. While I lived in Sudan, it wasn't gold or silver that people traded, it was ammo, guns and livestock.

Plus don't forget, Bullion doesn't increase in value, it merely preserves value.

Cash loses value.
Bullion preserves value.
Some numis increase value.

strong agree yennus' opinion

 

[yennus]

Cash loses value (in relation to bullion).
Bullion preserves value (in relation to bullion).
Some numis increase value (in relation to bullion).

Sorry, I should have explained this in further detail.

1. Cash loses value - this is pretty easy to understand. I think we all agree cash is not highly desirable.

2. Bullion preserves value (2 examples)
a) E.g. A bar of silver (ABC, PAMP, etc) bought in 2001, if sold in 2011 would still only buy one 2011 bar (ABC, PAMP, etc).
b) E.g. A 1oz 2000 American Silver Eagle bough in 2000, if sold in 2011 would still only buy one 2011 American Silver Eagle.

3. Some numis increase in value (2 examples)
a) E.g. A 1oz Silver 2000 Mirrored Panda bought back in 2000 could today buy over 35x 1oz 2011 Pandas.
b) E.g. A 1oz Silver 2009 Panda bought in 2009 could today buy 2x or 3x 1oz Silver 2011 Pandas. If that 1oz Silver 2009 Panda was graded (MS70) it could buy 4x or 5x 1oz Silver 2011 Pandas.

 

[Ausecon]

Cash loses value (in relation to bullion).
Bullion preserves value (in relation to bullion).
Some numis increase value (in relation to bullion).

Sorry, I should have explained this in further detail.

1. Cash loses value - this is pretty easy to understand. I think we all agree cash is not highly desirable.

2. Bullion preserves value (2 examples)
a) E.g. A bar of silver (ABC, PAMP, etc) bought in 2001, if sold in 2011 would still only buy one 2011 bar (ABC, PAMP, etc).
b) E.g. A 1oz 2000 American Silver Eagle bough in 2000, if sold in 2011 would still only buy one 2011 American Silver Eagle.

3. Some numis increase in value (2 examples)
a) E.g. A 1oz Silver 2000 Mirrored Panda bought back in 2000 could today buy over 35x 1oz 2011 Pandas.
b) E.g. A 1oz Silver 2009 Panda bought in 2009 could today buy 2x or 3x 1oz Silver 2011 Pandas. If that 1oz Silver 2009 Panda was graded (MS70) it could buy 4x or 5x 1oz Silver 2011 Pandas.

Thanks yennus. Yep i follow and agree.

I guess my question is notwithstanding no. 3 may occur, all else being equal, would a premium increase in same % as silver (or gold).

My guess is not so i'm going to be weighting my portfolio of PM's to low premium items with a small selection of numi coins (kooks, lunars but prob not koalas).

What do you think?

 

[Thor122]

Bullion preserves value (in relation to bullion).
Some numis increase value (in relation to bullion).



I guess my question is notwithstanding no. 3 may occur, all else being equal, would a premium increase in same % as silver (or gold).

My guess is not so i'm going to be weighting my portfolio of PM's to low premium items with a small selection of numi coins (kooks, lunars but prob not koalas).

What do you think?

you miss the pandas
:-(

 

[Ausecon]

i've only jsut started following the numi coins and sort of starting to understand history etc, so migh move onto them after kooks and lunars, but will wait and see! Too much to learn.

 

[Nugget]

Bullion preserves value (in relation to bullion).
Some numis increase value (in relation to bullion).



I guess my question is notwithstanding no. 3 may occur, all else being equal, would a premium increase in same % as silver (or gold).

My guess is not so i'm going to be weighting my portfolio of PM's to low premium items with a small selection of numi coins (kooks, lunars but prob not koalas).

What do you think?

you miss the pandas
:-(

I have read that it is possible to get to attached to an investment or a position.


Personally I suspect that I could easily get caught up in numismatics but seeing as I have numerous wants and limited means I'm sticking to building three sets of Lunar Series II (one is my fathers collection that I'm paying for ).... grr that's right, I'm also collecting the endangered species (only because I wanted the Tasmanian Eagle and Tiger).


My preference for stacking is to focus on the ounces stacked and the ease of selling when prices go to the moon. Stacking is not exactly rocket science which is why I really like it. Just buy your gold and silver in easily recognisable forms from reputable sellers for as close to spot as possible. Numismatics can add a very nice hedge (if you know what you are doing..... sometimes even when you don't) but I really like the idea of keeping it simple and not over analysing things. There's plenty of room though for everyone so what works for me may not work for you. Hell, you probably could do significantly better than me and that'd be awesome.