NRL Punting Thread

Game 5 - Cowboys vs Sharks

Sharks +4.5 Handicap 1st Half : 5 units @ 1.85
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.87
Penalty Goal 1st Score Type : 1.5 units @ 7.00
Sharks / Sharks Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 5.25
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 12.00
 
Game 3 Results :-

Canberra 1st to 10 Points : 4 units @ 1.75 = +3
Canberra Over 10.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.94 = +1.88
Canberra / Canberra Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 2.15 = -1
James Segeyaro To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.00 = -1
James Segeyaro 1st Tryscorer Penrith : 0.5 unit @ 11.50 = -0.5
Click to expand...

Game 3 Total = +2.38 units

Segeyaro got injured right about the time when he would be most dangerous :(


Game 4 Results :-

Over 44.5 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.90 = +3.6
Simon Mannerring To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 6.00 = +7.5
Ben Matulino To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 5.00 = -1
Warriors -18.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 3.85 = -1
Click to expand...

Game 4 Total = +9.1 units

A very typical performance from 2 teams full of players who would rather make the highlights reel than do the hard work. I never back either of them at short odds.


Game 5 Results :-

Sharks +4.5 Handicap 1st Half : 5 units @ 1.85 = -5
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.87 = +1.74
Penalty Goal 1st Score Type : 1.5 units @ 7.00 = -1.5
Sharks / Sharks Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 5.25 = -1
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 12.00 = -0.5
Click to expand...

Game 5 Total = -6.26 units

Stuffed this one up betting too early again. Was expecting wet (or at least greasy) conditions and thought the Cowboys might have started flat. Sharks still did well and could be specials next week.
 
Game 6 - Roosters vs Souths

Roosters Under 20 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.82
Souths Win Match : 3 units @ 1.86
Souths 13+ Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 4.55
Alex Johnson 1st Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.00
Greg Inglis Last Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 12.00
 
Game 7 - Titans vs Newcastle

Under 40.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.95
Titans Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00
Newcastle Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00

This is a bit of a nothing game between 2 of the worst in the league. Absolutely anything can happen, but I am expecting a knock-on-a-thon.
 
Game 6 Results :-

Roosters Under 20 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.82 = +3.28
Souths Win Match : 3 units @ 1.86 = +2.58
Souths 13+ Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 4.55 = +3.55
Alex Johnson 1st Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 9.00 = -1
Greg Inglis Last Tryscorer : 1 unit @ 12.00 = -1
Click to expand...

Game 6 Total = +7.41 units

Once again, both try scorers score but just not at the right times :(


Game 7 Results :-

Under 40.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.95 = -3
Titans Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00 = -0.5
Newcastle Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 15.00 = -0.5
Click to expand...

Game 7 Total = -4 units

Rubbish, ugly game of football. Got done over on the Unders with a meaningless penalty goal in the 78th minute and trigger happy refereeing.
 
Game 8 - Storm vs Dragons

Dragons +4 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.95
Storm 1-12 Winning Margin : 2 units @ 3.10
Josh Dugan 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 1 unit @ 6.00
Billy Slater Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
 
Game 8 Results :-

Dragons +4 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.95 = +1.9
Storm 1-12 Winning Margin : 2 units @ 3.10 = +4.2
Josh Dugan 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 1 unit @ 6.00 = -1
Billy Slater Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5
Click to expand...

Game 8 Total = +4.6

Good way to finish off the round :)
Will put up a week 1 summary tomorrow maybe.
 
NRL Round 1 Summary :-

Parramatta vs Broncos = -0.7
Manly vs Bulldogs = +14.4
Canberra vs Penrith = +2.38
Tigers vs Warriors = +9.1
Cowboys vs Sharks = -6.26
Roosters vs Souths = +7.41
Titans vs Newcastle = -4
Storm vs Dragons = +4.6

NRL Round 1 Total = +26.93

Total units bet = 63.5 thus Return On Investment (ROI) = +42.4%

Number of bets placed = 39, Winning bets placed = 15 thus Strike Rate (SR) = 38.5%

NOTE - I did not include my 4 leg multi in the above summary, but I hit all 4 legs for a nice little sweetener this week

Normally each month I would do a deeper analysis on my bet types to see where I am going right or wrong. It's a bit early but I can see 2 areas already where I need to improve :-

1. I have been betting too early (over eager) and as a result have misread some of the playing conditions and also missed some late team changes.

2. I have a very poor strike rate on the First Scoring Play markets (0%) and this is normally a market type I do well in. Part of this is a result of misreading conditions, but also misreading the captaincy/coaching styles/instructions for the new season.

I need to do better in both of these areas next week.
 
What a good start to get rid of watching NRL on Foxtell instead of Channel 9....Live game is much better to watch.

I got of to a bad start in the tipping comp, didnt tick the box for the rabbits(going blind)? so only finished with 4 out of 8.

I'll be watching with keen interest how your punting goes.

Regards Errol 43
 
New Futures bet :-

West Tigers Most Losses (Dead Heat Rules Apply) : 20 units @ 7.00

As pointed out, this is a young team that has some talent, but is very vulnerable with cultural issues and a major conflict between the coach and most senior player. I was going to wait until the early season enthusiasm died off but with a win against a very poor Warriors side in round 1 they've drifted to a cracking price. But the real clincher for me today was the article in the Telegraph today about Mitchell Moses (man of match round 1) saying he didn't think him and Luke Brooks would stay together long term because of "salary cap issues". Or, in other words, he's had 1 good game and reckons he's now worth a bunch. Nothing screams "sh*t culture" to me more than chequebook players coming out publicly with rubbish like this. They may well get towelled up by a fired up Manly this weekend and the rot could easily set in after that.
 
Gotta throw this one up as a bit of an early bird special for the Monday night game. Price is unlikely to last :-

Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00
 
Game 9 - Penrith vs Bulldogs

Penrith Win 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.15
Penrith Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.50
Josh Mansour 1st Tryscorer Penrith : 1 unit @ 5.55
Bulldogs / Penrith Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 10.00
Jamie Soward Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00
 
BuggedOut said:
Gotta throw this one up as a bit of an early bird special for the Monday night game. Price is unlikely to last :-

Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00
Click to expand...

Those prices were huge overs!
 
Did you mean Unders?

He played 21 games last year and scored 4 tries, including a double vs Souths. I often look for powerful back rowers matched up against weak defensive halves, but the fact I think Manly will potentially smash Tigers makes this a bet. The fact he is playing against his old club makes it a cracking bet.

PS - Prices are still available. I'll send you a PM.
 
Game 9 Results :-

Penrith Win 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.15 = -2
Penrith Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.50 = +2.25
Josh Mansour 1st Tryscorer Penrith : 1 unit @ 5.55 = -1
Bulldogs / Penrith Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 10.00 = -1
Jamie Soward Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00 = -0.5

Game 9 Total = -2.25 units

Bummer. Got my halves of football the wrong way around. Penrith / Bulldogs was the go :(
 
What are You Thinking Bugged Out With The Second Game of Round 2 ? - Brisbane vs New Zealand.

Head To Head: Brisbane? @ 1.33

The Score to be Below 42 points @ 1.90

Can the Broncos be trusted to get into gear at a home game?
 
Brisbane are entitled to be favourites, and I do like them for the minor premiership but I don't think there is much value backing them here at 1.33 even though I think they'll probably win. Unders could be a decent bet though, considering Brisbane played very safe last week once establishing a big lead so they might be less likely to blowout a scoreline.

Warriors were woeful last week but they do have a very talented roster and they have been getting flogged in the press all week being accused of having a "bro culture" so they have a lot to prove and could come out firing.

I'll put my bets up later today, but I'll be looking for value on some Warriors options somewhere.
 
Game 10 - Brisbane vs Warriors

Brisbane Under 25.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.87
Warriors 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.65
Warriors Try 1st Scoring Play : 1.5 units @ 2.75
Brisbane 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.38
Warriors / Brisbane Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 7.75
Brisbane Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00
 
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