No one knows where the silver price is headed - its all just guesses
- Thread starter SpacePete
- Start date
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Look at Mint sales.Cheepo said:
And bar sales.
Monitor published stocks.
For ex,
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/SLV.htm
2014/02/26 328,077,858.700
2014/03/03 326,923,758.700
2014/03/05 326,803,953.400
2014/03/31 328,342,132.600
2014/04/02 328,196,210.500
2014/04/04 328,869,119.100
2014/04/21 330,599,095.50
2014/04/28 327,235,616.50
2014/05/01 331,463,664.50
SLV bought on 1 may 4,23 Moz silver as 1000 ounce bars.
And maybe this idea: plenty dealers on this site. Ask them for their sales figures and how they changed their hedging positions (that ALSO affects the price).
And why do you consider a simultaneous order by many people as unbelievable? People target a price. People look at various indicators. People read same news stories. People react same time.
And you don't believe that?
You can be right that certain times certain entities buy certain big amounts causing big price movements. But you seem to have made a rule of it, and that just isn't true. An ant doesn't build a castle. But a million do.
This has gone on for a few months already. A gradual, slow, decline in the prices followed by a sudden jump ($1 in 1 hour or something), and than a gradual, slow, decline in the prices followed by a sudden jump ($1 in 1 hour or something), and so on. It's fascinating. And of course it's 2 million people suddenly deciding to buy silver, right? Haha. If you believe that, then I am the former Nigerian minister of the oil industry, and I have $10 M stashed away which I would like to send to you, if you send me $2,000 to cover the bank charges.Pirocco said:
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
A gradual price trend means that people need to be convinced that the price is okay to buy, or sell, at.Cheepo said:This has gone on for a few months already. A gradual, slow, decline in the prices followed by a sudden jump ($1 in 1 hour or something), and than a gradual, slow, decline in the prices followed by a sudden jump ($1 in 1 hour or something), and so on. It's fascinating. And of course it's 2 million people suddenly deciding to buy silver, right? Haha. If you believe that, then I am the former Nigerian minister of the oil industry, and I have $10 M stashed away which I would like to send to you, if you send me $2,000 to cover the bank charges.Pirocco said:
A sudden price trend means that other people sat waiting for the price, to do the opposite.
And you can repeat like a parrot a thousand times 10000 100000 1million 1000 million, in terms of the ounces purchased or sold, it's nothing special, it happens since day and night and since markets exist, and especially when there is lotsa concern and lotsa others taking advantage of those concerns.
As said, Ishares ETF bought over 4 Moz that day. Futures contracts are sometimes taken by the thousands. Every thousand is 5 Moz.
WEEK
DAY
HOUR
It just shows that what you see as 'special', isn't special at all. And feel free to look at any futures market:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=h1
Everywhere you see gradual trends followed by sudden trends, and vice versa of course.
The more error in the market, the more sudden trends, and the higher the candlesticks on the price charts.
After multiyear highs it is typically the sequence gradual up, suddenly down. Near multiyear bottoms it is typically gradual down, suddenly up.
For simple reasons: in the first case alot sit ready to sell, and in the latter case alot sit ready to buy back in.
So I'd say you ARE the former Nigerian minister of the oil industry, thinking he's alone in the world and thinking he's the only one driving the price.
So if you feel 'victim', then it's simply because others bought back in and you didn't expect it, which was also underlined by your talk on the forum about lower.
You can be right in the future, but for now, you aren't, so cope with it, instead of complaining about manipulation, try to recognize when it happens, and act accordingly.
And it's quite possible that it's exactly this that happens on 'the other side' too. If you would have bought, together with some others, causing that price upspike, then those that didn't bought, could complain about what you did. See? Just switch positions and what you first considered 'manipulation' is suddenly said about what you and others did.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
When prices go down, almost everyone goes pessimistic. I was surprised to read all those negative posts here yesterday. Some don't even believe in 40 $ silver in the coming years, others don't even want to dream about 50 $ silver.
If the socio-economic situation of the World worsens, particularly in the West-Russia-Middle East-Far East (well, the northern hemisphere, essentially), then we're going to see higher prices.
Watch the Ukraine events unfold, because the situation is pretty bad, I see another cold war developing, troop movements in the eastern European countries, major military exercises etc.
More expensive commodities? Highly likely...
Trade wars, financial warfare? It's already going on
The recent Russian attempt to launch a new payment system that could exit the dollar might actually hit the petrodollars and you know what that means: more expensive oil in US dollars, cheaper dollars, more expensive precious metals.
I think we're still heading down on the slope, but I see silver hitting 30 $ again, prolly it will surpass the previous peak - provided that the geopolitical situation worsens.
Additionally: let's not forget about silver's potential to generate profits...
http://www.primevalues.org/investors-guide/tremendous-potential-behind-silver.htm
If the socio-economic situation of the World worsens, particularly in the West-Russia-Middle East-Far East (well, the northern hemisphere, essentially), then we're going to see higher prices.
Watch the Ukraine events unfold, because the situation is pretty bad, I see another cold war developing, troop movements in the eastern European countries, major military exercises etc.
More expensive commodities? Highly likely...
Trade wars, financial warfare? It's already going on
The recent Russian attempt to launch a new payment system that could exit the dollar might actually hit the petrodollars and you know what that means: more expensive oil in US dollars, cheaper dollars, more expensive precious metals.
I think we're still heading down on the slope, but I see silver hitting 30 $ again, prolly it will surpass the previous peak - provided that the geopolitical situation worsens.
Additionally: let's not forget about silver's potential to generate profits...
http://www.primevalues.org/investors-guide/tremendous-potential-behind-silver.htm
The market always exaggerates, because when the price goes up people are optimistic, and the price goes up more than it should, and when the price goes down, people turn pessimistic and the price goes down more than it should. This is why I think the price will go down to $6 or so, while the "right" price, considering PM supply, demand, and money supply would be about $8 or 9. That's just my opinion, but I am usually right (as I keep telling my wife)TreasureHunter said:
Of course silver will go to $30, 50, 100, or 200. But when? In your lifetime? In any case, if you buy silver, for whatever reason, better to buy at the lowest possible price, so better wait until it goes sub-10.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
A thought about this: we see there an event happening. A story, with a duration, on the timeline. Media coverage, followup, etc, then it's getting 'old news', and we start to get used to the story and we lose interest. Then, another event, and it sweeps our attention to there. And so on. We change focus, but what we seldom do, is recapitulating everything of the last X years, in a row. Let's now do that here. What did happen during the last years? Well, it's becoming some serious list. How many countries had/have unrest/conflict upto war? How many serious economical issues? Alot. Compared to let's say a 5-10 years period earlier, it's quite remarkable. And this is something to think about. Imagine we would be 2050 now, and look back to the 2000(2008)-2014 years, over let's say some 70 years period. There, in our time, we see some rather exceptional concentration of events. Well, this happened before in history, and often they together formed the daisy chain towards a historical big change / superconflict, that then finally materializes with as apparent trigger some smallish appearing non-event.TreasureHunter said:
But I doubt this one (if indeed the case) will be inbetween governments. I rather think between population parts and their own, and other, governments.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
If one observes the comex total net position trend:
20/05/2014 17597 $19.44
13/05/2014 19434 $19.47
06/05/2014 20349 $19.64
29/04/2014 23356 $19.35
22/04/2014 22773 $19.43
15/04/2014 23294 $19.45
then the conclusion is that it clearly drops at a same price, since 5 weeks now.
We have had 3 years of the opposite.
So far it hasn't a winter>spring magnitude, though. Will need more time to tell.
20/05/2014 17597 $19.44
13/05/2014 19434 $19.47
06/05/2014 20349 $19.64
29/04/2014 23356 $19.35
22/04/2014 22773 $19.43
15/04/2014 23294 $19.45
then the conclusion is that it clearly drops at a same price, since 5 weeks now.
We have had 3 years of the opposite.
So far it hasn't a winter>spring magnitude, though. Will need more time to tell.
I've changed my mind since I started this thread.
I think some people do know (with a reasonably high probability) where the silver price is headed in terms of the trend rather than any specific price point. These people are not some global cabal of elite price manipulators. They are the people with a deep understanding of global mine capacity, ore yields, energy cost trends, investor sentiment, economic policy, and geopolitics.
The rest of us are just wanking over our favourite theory.
I think some people do know (with a reasonably high probability) where the silver price is headed in terms of the trend rather than any specific price point. These people are not some global cabal of elite price manipulators. They are the people with a deep understanding of global mine capacity, ore yields, energy cost trends, investor sentiment, economic policy, and geopolitics.
The rest of us are just wanking over our favourite theory.
mmissinglink
Active Member
^ There are smart people who do make accurate projections of trends (but no one can know the exact spot price at any given time in the future) and some of these smart people may write articles. So, in a sense, we can also have that same knowledge so long as we choose to heed the smart people's words.
There is one group whom I can rule out immediately and always as not containing in that group a single smart person as described above; it's the group made of the silver-to-da-moon-tomorrow permabulls.
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There is one group whom I can rule out immediately and always as not containing in that group a single smart person as described above; it's the group made of the silver-to-da-moon-tomorrow permabulls.
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