Contrary to the conspiracy theories, it seems the market is quite reasonable at the moment. If we compare miner's cash costs for gold and silver, the second appears to be overvalued even now. Although cash costs in US are somewhat around 20$, it's just about 10$ elsewhere in the world (taking in sales profits from byproducts such as copper, zinc, gold, etc - I mean exclusive miners of silver here). CME silver stock is also on rise compared to that of gold. So, futher downside is quite possible.
No one knows where the silver price is headed - its all just guesses
- Thread starter SpacePete
- Start date
Take a look, pal:Pirocco said:If you have cash costs data as to get a general idea (read: worlds average cast cost), feel free to give a copypaste.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en//mineweb-silver-news?oid=239082&sn=Detail
BiGs
Active Member
Pirocco said:
This information is not all on paper. Nobody knows the cash cost of some guy in Ghana panning every day pulling out an oz a week to feed his family, or the millions of individuals doing the same. Having insider information would imply that all data is known, and it isn't. The market is just way too big for any data to be noteworthy and able to be acted upon. Any other data would just be short term, such as knowing where a hedge funds entry level is.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Take a look here, ntsc:Nickoru said:Take a look, pal:Pirocco said:If you have cash costs data as to get a general idea (read: worlds average cast cost), feel free to give a copypaste.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en//mineweb-silver-news?oid=239082&sn=Detail
http://www.minecost.com/curves.htm
Something like that is what I'm after. What am I with a comparison now > year ago?
A cash cost is a figure. In order to interprete a figure, it needs other figures, from past years/decades. If the cash cost is now $X, and the spot price is now $Y, in order to judge this present relation, one has to compare them with past relations.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Is the world black or white?BiGs said:
Is it all or nothing?
I thought no?
I dont need to know that Ghana guys panned amount.
I don't need to know every detail.
When I want to know if it will be raining tomorrow, I don't need to know where each drop will fall.
I just need a general idea, meaning that a sufficient representative sample is fine.
That is obvious, so why on earth coming up with your Ghana river guy?
unfortunately for many this is just the next stage in the psychological pain that many in recent times are going to have to bear.
Of course its not just all guesses, like all asset classes, there is dependent probability.
Its just for many they forget this essential lesson, and just get wrapped up in the story of the time.
If its any comfort, for the newbies out there, you will not be the first and nor will you be the last.
There is a time to sow, a time to reap, a time for winter a time for summer, in fact there is has been and always will be a season for everything under this earth.
Of course its not just all guesses, like all asset classes, there is dependent probability.
Its just for many they forget this essential lesson, and just get wrapped up in the story of the time.
If its any comfort, for the newbies out there, you will not be the first and nor will you be the last.
There is a time to sow, a time to reap, a time for winter a time for summer, in fact there is has been and always will be a season for everything under this earth.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Huge price swings prove that many lack information.BiGs said:
On all terms.
Not just your 'years'.
Why reverting again to that silly chosing of time frames?
One can claim anything, including the wrong, by selecting a time frame that supports the claim.
A margin value to illustrate this: select 30 seconds. Price remains. Lack of error. Select 10 years. Price swing of $40. Select 3 years. Price swing of $30.
Huge price swings prove error, and lack of information, in turn then used by some to chew out other peoples money. That even go further: actively constructing and spreading wrong information, as to mislead people as to exchange the latters money for their nothing in return.
By the way, one of their tricks is exactly selecting time frames in such a way that it suggests others to do what their position (in or out) at that moment benefits.
The by far best, and most telltaling example case I came along is the one I pasted (between ====) already a couple times here:
=====
https://www.kitcomm.com/search.php?...rteronly=1&exactname=1&searchuser=theplantguy
Page 4 is that period.
$38 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79452 04 april 2011 "Great way to start the week......don't you think?"
$39 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79517 05 april 2011 "39 ...One more step up the ladder"
$40 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=79723 07 april 2011 "Thursday..............Yet another up day"
$41 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80243 13 april 2011 "Hump Day...........Up Day"
$42 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80318 14 april 2011 "Killer Thursday............Movin' on up"
$43 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80419 15 april 2011 "A Fabulous Friday............Great Finish For The Week"
$44 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80679 19 april 2011 "Monday.........Up Up and Away"
$45.5 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80932 20 april 2011 "A Whale of a Wednesday............45+"
$46.50 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81069 21 april 2011 "A Thundering Thursday...............Look at that puppy go!!"
$49.50 25 april 2011 PEAK 1 - FIRST PROFITGRAB
$45 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81462 25 april 2011 "Monday Mayhem.............Y'all survive? Monday Mayhem............Y'all survive? What a day. Actually, not all that bad. The long term trend is still up. Just a minor bump. A "little" more volatility than usual."
$46 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81576 26 april 2011 "A downturn of 2 days or 2 weeks is not significant in the over all scope of things"
$49.50 28 april 2011 PEAK 2
$48 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81937 29 april 2011 "Silver..........Something to consider"
$44 1 may 2011 SECOND PROFITGRAB
$33 https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81423 6 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"
See the last topic?
Notice how AFTER spot was already dumped back to $33, how he starts (!) to talk about selling.
Aboves example case makes very clear what is going on: manipulation of people, misleading of people.
Trick them into buying high.
GRAB THE PROFIT
Trick them into selling low.
BUY BACK IN
=====
See that sentence I tagged bold here?
See how he uses that returning trick of selecting a time frame to suggest a future?
"The long term trend is still up. Just a minor bump."
Then he did his share in smashing that long term trend. Just a couple days later, that $45 became $32.
Let's now warp 9 to you.
You say here that PMs have been in a downward trend for years, and claim that this indicates that they have a general idea.
Well lol, they had one right there at $49.5 too, after an uptrend of 3 years.
So gimme a break trying such trick please, it's becoming silly.
I somewhat agree with this guy:
http://www.investing.com/analysis/silver:-another-downward-move-211282
The thing about present downfall is that many companies had expanded mining last year due to excellent profits by selling silver above 30$. Nevertheless, the managers say they already started to shrink the business at current prices, so after some time market will bottom and a very slow uptrend has to return again.
http://www.investing.com/analysis/silver:-another-downward-move-211282
The thing about present downfall is that many companies had expanded mining last year due to excellent profits by selling silver above 30$. Nevertheless, the managers say they already started to shrink the business at current prices, so after some time market will bottom and a very slow uptrend has to return again.
Yes, prices will go down, and then prices will go up. Big deal. We all know that. The goal is to try to time the market. This is how you can make some money. Buying silver at $30, or even at $20, isn't very smart (in my opinion) because we all know it will go down to $10, and lower. Wait until it's lower before buying, wait for it to bounce back before selling.Nickoru said:
My humble stackers, I feel a hint of sentiment turning in some, as to why? Why do I stack, PM's? Why do the manipulators get away with it? Why hasn't the economy imploded yet? Why am I not rich from staying steadfast to a cause?
Why? Because you have forgotten, or never really understood why in the first place. You perhaps put too much on one horse, or maybe you have become addicted by the allure of the metals and lost sight of the reality of your financial situation.
The reality is, nothing has changed, only you have changed, and the fear that the cause is lost haunts you. The fear is reinforced by the spot price falling and what could have been if only .. If only you what? If only you knew what the future had in store for you. Don't confuse hindsight with knowledge. When you hear yourself or somebody else saying I know what will happen with certainty, take a step back. The SGR history for example is a living perpetual chart for which we only know a few thousands miniscule years, its future is unknown.
Some belief the further you look back in the past the further you can see into the future, perhaps, perhaps not. I'm not sure that just because it has happened before it must happen again. What I am sure about is, if we do not learn from the past it's a mathematical certainty you will see it again in the future.
Nothing in life is certain, that's a certainty.
Why? Because you have forgotten, or never really understood why in the first place. You perhaps put too much on one horse, or maybe you have become addicted by the allure of the metals and lost sight of the reality of your financial situation.
The reality is, nothing has changed, only you have changed, and the fear that the cause is lost haunts you. The fear is reinforced by the spot price falling and what could have been if only .. If only you what? If only you knew what the future had in store for you. Don't confuse hindsight with knowledge. When you hear yourself or somebody else saying I know what will happen with certainty, take a step back. The SGR history for example is a living perpetual chart for which we only know a few thousands miniscule years, its future is unknown.
Some belief the further you look back in the past the further you can see into the future, perhaps, perhaps not. I'm not sure that just because it has happened before it must happen again. What I am sure about is, if we do not learn from the past it's a mathematical certainty you will see it again in the future.
Nothing in life is certain, that's a certainty.
No. You are guessing it will go below $10 based on your theory that prices will return to some historic average (correct me if I am wrong).Cheepo said:
Is your prediction any more valid than other predictions based on other theories? I don't think so. Only time will tell.
For those of us who think we are headed for a crash,
a crash means gold will go up after a short time due to
Insecurity.
This is more than a guess.
Will it crash?
Not absolutely sure, but it's insurance against this happening.
Silver may fall in .a crash due to its industrial use factors.
a crash means gold will go up after a short time due to
Insecurity.
This is more than a guess.
Will it crash?
Not absolutely sure, but it's insurance against this happening.
Silver may fall in .a crash due to its industrial use factors.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Look at what happened to other prices. Houses represent for many the biggest cost in their lifetime. So their prices have a bigger weight. Other things, and especially the lesser needed, have a lower weight.
These other prices serve as an indication of what happens to silvers price.
All the rest, is just a temporary story, based on errors, and others taking advantage of it.
So stop focussing on a silver price / history alone. Try to find its place in the whole, there the real answer lays. It can make things much simpler / easier to see. Take me, over time I lost a half house purchasing power along bank savings difference intrest rate <> house price increasings rate. Then I bought silver, at a tripled price over the 3 years term, and a 6 folded price over the 30 years term. Yet, house prices 5-6 folded over that 30 years term. 2-3 million became 10-15 million. That, and the equal monetary base growth since 2008, made me decide that $30 silver was a limit. That's my average now.
That monetary base growth was, in a large degree, a scam (a strategy of increasing excess reserves with increasing required reserves combined with an intrest rate PAID instead of received by the central bank). The real rate (minus excess and also what circulation money did) was 1.4 folding, while in meantime, the monetary base 4.6 folded relative to 2008. So relative to 2008's bottom of $10, $14 has a fair chance, IF economy improves, and people are able to cope with the heavy losses, and the producing people will be able to produce again more at the same cost, which is to my opinion destined to fail (in a rather big way).
But in terms of purchasing power, I can only have lost, that's just how it is, and the sole way to decrease those losses, is by not giving up, sticking to the plan, and making better decisions. I'm sure of X ounces silver. My former bank savings were a promise, designed to be broken, and broken. The future will be no different. Because it's that or undoing decades government interference and theft. They will never just return the stolen property and walk away, instead, they'll run it to a bitter end, as proved by the heaps extra regulation and taxes, and as like they always did in history.
Their theft succeeds by people repeating errors. Keep that in mind when having greed, and concerns.
These other prices serve as an indication of what happens to silvers price.
All the rest, is just a temporary story, based on errors, and others taking advantage of it.
So stop focussing on a silver price / history alone. Try to find its place in the whole, there the real answer lays. It can make things much simpler / easier to see. Take me, over time I lost a half house purchasing power along bank savings difference intrest rate <> house price increasings rate. Then I bought silver, at a tripled price over the 3 years term, and a 6 folded price over the 30 years term. Yet, house prices 5-6 folded over that 30 years term. 2-3 million became 10-15 million. That, and the equal monetary base growth since 2008, made me decide that $30 silver was a limit. That's my average now.
That monetary base growth was, in a large degree, a scam (a strategy of increasing excess reserves with increasing required reserves combined with an intrest rate PAID instead of received by the central bank). The real rate (minus excess and also what circulation money did) was 1.4 folding, while in meantime, the monetary base 4.6 folded relative to 2008. So relative to 2008's bottom of $10, $14 has a fair chance, IF economy improves, and people are able to cope with the heavy losses, and the producing people will be able to produce again more at the same cost, which is to my opinion destined to fail (in a rather big way).
But in terms of purchasing power, I can only have lost, that's just how it is, and the sole way to decrease those losses, is by not giving up, sticking to the plan, and making better decisions. I'm sure of X ounces silver. My former bank savings were a promise, designed to be broken, and broken. The future will be no different. Because it's that or undoing decades government interference and theft. They will never just return the stolen property and walk away, instead, they'll run it to a bitter end, as proved by the heaps extra regulation and taxes, and as like they always did in history.
Their theft succeeds by people repeating errors. Keep that in mind when having greed, and concerns.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
But there are only so many 'slots' available at that time point.Cheepo said:
Logical consequence is that the more follow your advice, the less chance you have to grab a slot. The game with the musical chairs, the time that the music stops.
The logical conclusion is that those that try to 'make money', by grabbing such a slot, are bound to mislead most others.
By predicting lower than they target buying. By predicting higher than they target selling. Your bounce back, is in effect all slots occupied. Too late. The act needs to be done while others sit in a WAIT slot. Only a certain amount silver can be bought within a certain price range. That doesn't even change if the silver market 10folds in size. Only when the reference (here: the fiatcurrency) changes. If a net trade of 60 Moz moves a price 1 dollar at $50, then 60 Moz moves a price also 1 dollar at $20. At 60 Moz, 30 price dollars equal 1800 Moz, being nearly twice the total annually traded. The $30 to $50 price trend in 2011 was caused by over 1 total annually traded, being bought in 10 weeks, then sold in 3 days. It's not like that everybody there sold at $50, then price dropped to $30, then a part bought back in at that $30. It doesn't work that way haha, because the price is moved by the trading itself. Why do you think alot out there suggest others to do the opposite of what they plan to do? Simply to decrease the competition when trying to grab such a slot.
So your 'we all know', and your 'time the market', actually are contradicting eachother.