No one knows where the silver price is headed - its all just guesses

SpacePete

SpacePete

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Without inside information, no one knows where the silver price is headed. If someone says it is going lower due to whatever reason, or someone says it is going higher for whatever reason, and if one of them is right then they are probably not right due to their theory but right simply due to blind luck.

We can only analyse in retrospect the fundamentals behind major price moves.

If you want to be hailed a genius, just create three stacker accounts with corresponding personalities - a bearish persona, a bullish persona, and a sideways persona. Eventually one of them will be right and you can reap your accolades from fellow stackers for being a guru.

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I've heard that silversammy reckons it's going down whilst sammyslider reckons it's going sideways.

Meanwhile, I'm not scared to put my neck on the line and predict upward movement. This of course as we are in the traditional Easter smackdown period. Again I'm not bullish on silver, but more so bearish on the world economy. This latest dip is probably linked to further tapering by the Fed to be announced today or tomorrow. This is considered proof that the US economy is improving and thus the drop in PMs. Question is, will US$19 hold, and if not how low can it go before unsubstainable at such a low price?

As I can't be sure on the exchange rate, I predict US$40 by Christmas. I think we are about to head into a shitfight that the word hasn't seen for 50 years. Gold will go up and GSR will drop!
 
SilverPete said:
If you want to be hailed a genius, just create three stacker accounts with corresponding personalities - a bearish persona, a bullish persona, and a sideways persona. Eventually one of them will be right and you can reap your accolades from fellow stackers for being a guru.
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That's a logic fail because 1 of the 3 aliases will have not more chance to be right or wrong than the other 2 and the chance on 'accolades', as a single user, will still be the same.

We all together know where the price is going too because we drive it. So watching what was done, and is done, gives a clue about the future. The future is based on past and present. For ex. Homer Simpson has sometimes flashbacks upon which he foresees something to happen. And he's no genius so if he already is able too, then a genius certainly. Homer Simpson doesn't even need chain reactor data, if you see alot negativity then you know few are buying and alot are selling. The opposite means the opposite. :D
 
I made my first silver purchase just under a year ago and joined this forum shortly after. I read posts every day with varying opinions on the future price of silver, the pros and cons of stacking, premiums, etc.. Since I am not a silver psychic or an investing genius, I must agree with SilverPete. We aint got a clue.
 
4speed said:
I made my first silver purchase just under a year ago and joined this forum shortly after. I read posts every day with varying opinions on the future price of silver, the pros and cons of stacking, premiums, etc.. Since I am not a silver psychic or an investing genius, I must agree with SilverPete. We aint got a clue.
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First clue I see in your post is that you choose to stack.
 
sammysilver said:
4speed said:
I made my first silver purchase just under a year ago and joined this forum shortly after. I read posts every day with varying opinions on the future price of silver, the pros and cons of stacking, premiums, etc.. Since I am not a silver psychic or an investing genius, I must agree with SilverPete. We aint got a clue.
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First clue I see in your post is that you choose to stack.
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Well, you got me. What can I say? I like shiny stuff. I figure even if silver never hits $30+ again, at least I can leave something for my kids to fight over.
 
I keep buying silver because I want the insurance and "feel" its a bargain at these prices. I liked silver at $25 and love it at around $19 U.S. I'm going to keep buying at these prices and if I'm wrong, at least I have something tangible. Surprises me that people buy silver at a "high" price and when it drops they feel like they made a bad decision. If you liked it at the price you bought it, you should love having the ability to buy at a bargain.
 
sammysilver said:
4speed said:
I made my first silver purchase just under a year ago and joined this forum shortly after. I read posts every day with varying opinions on the future price of silver, the pros and cons of stacking, premiums, etc.. Since I am not a silver psychic or an investing genius, I must agree with SilverPete. We aint got a clue.
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First clue I see in your post is that you choose to stack.
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Alternatively, some people may think silver will lose value more slowly than other investments. Or maybe they stack as insurance against the government adding yet more arbitrary taxes to fiat savings to pay for their excesses and largesse to voters.
 
SilverPete said:
Alternatively, some people may think silver will lose value more slowly than other investments. Or maybe they stack as insurance against the government adding yet more arbitrary taxes to fiat savings to pay for their excesses and largesse to voters.
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Yes, simply because tax and extra production of the much cheaper materials paper, ink, cotton and electronic bits, are in terms of theft not different, only that the former is abit more open, and the latter abit more disguised.
All those King Cashes now, well, the longer they sit with their Cash, the more losses they will accumulate.
They need now others to sell after them, and hesitate to buy more, so that they can buy back in cheaper.
Well, I refuse to sell after them, instead I buy more.
In meantime, all those King Cashes, gradually become King of Nothin'. :D
 
It shouldn't just be guesses though...

Silver should act in a fairly predicable manner e.g. , the world is in chaos, demand goes down, so does the price, everything is going to be fine, demand goes up, so does the price.

Yesterday the price was $X, nothing has happenned, so today the price should be $X.

But it is very volatile and looking at the charts makes me sea-sick.

So something seems to be going on behind the scenes to account for the crazy prices and there aren't enough people on this site to make a difference so it must be something else.
 
Jislizard said:
It shouldn't just be guesses though...

Silver should act in a fairly predicable manner e.g. , the world is in chaos, demand goes down, so does the price, everything is going to be fine, demand goes up, so does the price.

Yesterday the price was $X, nothing has happenned, so today the price should be $X.

But it is very volatile and looking at the charts makes me sea-sick.

So something seems to be going on behind the scenes to account for the crazy prices and there aren't enough people on this site to make a difference so it must be something else.
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Think "petrol prices," price can swing 20% in a day. That is volatile!
 
Jislizard said:
It shouldn't just be guesses though...

Silver should act in a fairly predicable manner e.g. , the world is in chaos, demand goes down, so does the price, everything is going to be fine, demand goes up, so does the price.

Yesterday the price was $X, nothing has happenned, so today the price should be $X.

But it is very volatile and looking at the charts makes me sea-sick.

So something seems to be going on behind the scenes to account for the crazy prices and there aren't enough people on this site to make a difference so it must be something else.
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This is it. There should be reliable fundamentals that would help us make somewhat informed decisions. But the price is following a script that we have no visibility over. We all have our pet theories about what will driver silver prices in the future, but without inside information, these theories are little more than conjectures based on our best guesses.
 
sammysilver said:
Jislizard said:
It shouldn't just be guesses though...

Silver should act in a fairly predicable manner e.g. , the world is in chaos, demand goes down, so does the price, everything is going to be fine, demand goes up, so does the price.

Yesterday the price was $X, nothing has happenned, so today the price should be $X.

But it is very volatile and looking at the charts makes me sea-sick.

So something seems to be going on behind the scenes to account for the crazy prices and there aren't enough people on this site to make a difference so it must be something else.
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Think "petrol prices," price can swing 20% in a day. That is volatile!
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Petrol Price is manipulated
 
Inflation of the money supply is a hidden tax on all of the holders of currency.

High frequency trading and frontrunning is a constant thief and a vampiric drain upon the market on which we all depend .

Fractional Reserve banking (our current system) is a license to steal and has loan default and foreclosure built in.

Since almost all the money in circulation is created as debt, where does the interest + principal to pay back the debt come from? The created funds are the principal, but from whence comes the interest? If the money supply is not constantly inflated(a tax on us all) it is very much like a game of musical chairs with the defaulters being a certainty. We are left to scramble and compete with each other for what amounts to insufficient funds to repay the debts. This is how our real property is stolen. Through expansion and contraction of money and credit. Not only does this system encourage fraud, it is itself fraudulent and very antihuman.
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Credits Oinsane.
 
sammysilver said:
And silver isn't?
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Well, us conspiracy nuts think it is but we are told that no one has the ability to manipulate something on such a scale.

Petrol on the other hand...
 
BiGs said:
I don't think there is such a thing as inside information on a commodity.
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I don't know how you see that "inside", but for me it's information not freely available.
And over time, I saw here and there data to pay for. For ex, cash costs of production. And a hefty price tag, enough to keep it out reach of the many small fish. It doesnt make sense to spend X on data when you need X to buy where the data is ment for.
 
I bought in mainly to gamble, living in Nevada I like to gamble. Sure I read as much as I could but like it was stated thats almost fruitless because nobody knows. I've looked at the charts and have scene the price sky rocket several times. Leads me to believe that 50$ silver can and will happen again. I've also seen that is has gone low, but not much lower then 6$oz in my lifetime. It seems the likely ness of breaking even or ending up ahead in my lifetime(age 25) seem far more likely then it going down and staying down. Even if it does hit bottom around 6$oz I still walk with 25% of my money. Cant say that about most bets There is also the small chance of it going off the handle and hitting record highs. At 20$oz it seems worth the risk. It appears the worst that happens I leave with 25% of my money, but the best can be equal, double, triple or more.
 
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