Topherclaus
Active Member
Would love to see a screenshot of your losses today Leon. Given how GREAT that SHORT idea was.
Next week is an opportunity to SHORT gold
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
Just start a new thread in a week or two with a new trading tip - problem solved
technically he's still in the money.. $1357 short and we're at $1334. $1280 is a resistance level so it is plausible for it to dip but I don't think it will. Plenty of people still buying. I think the fundamentals will keep inching higher. I purchased more SLW to go along with my long. Dollar cost averaging on the way up. Should gold and silver continue up along with everything, i think the economy will give first.
I know most of you ask for proof from leon, but if you want to another member put my $$ where my mouth is, I've been developing an app over the last year(since i've been stacking) to help people save money. I borrow or buy from friends because its convenient and less work than trying to maximize profit on ebay or meeting with stranger. You already have a social network with established trust. You don't have to sell metal, but you can use or buy items second hand at a discount. This is where I see the economy going and I built a system to try and ease the friction because people still buy a lot of crap but don't get a whole lot of use out of what they buy. As in one of the other topics do you teach people about metals? I do when people search for info or I try to help people save their wealth kinda sorta the same concept different medium.
A lot of you ask for proof, i sunk time and money to build it. I just got approved by the app store and will be releasing it soon for iOS and Android. The extra money saved from not buying new goes into metals, the market, or skills development. https://ikeo.com
I know most of you ask for proof from leon, but if you want to another member put my $$ where my mouth is, I've been developing an app over the last year(since i've been stacking) to help people save money. I borrow or buy from friends because its convenient and less work than trying to maximize profit on ebay or meeting with stranger. You already have a social network with established trust. You don't have to sell metal, but you can use or buy items second hand at a discount. This is where I see the economy going and I built a system to try and ease the friction because people still buy a lot of crap but don't get a whole lot of use out of what they buy. As in one of the other topics do you teach people about metals? I do when people search for info or I try to help people save their wealth kinda sorta the same concept different medium.
A lot of you ask for proof, i sunk time and money to build it. I just got approved by the app store and will be releasing it soon for iOS and Android. The extra money saved from not buying new goes into metals, the market, or skills development. https://ikeo.com
leon1998 said:
Retail figures missed and gold rose :|
They need to hold the market for Hillary. Once that is done watch out. Then again they may slip up before November.
Retail sales, jobs, GDP all irrelevant in the world of make believe central banking. This ship is going down - they can delay it, they can disguise it, but no way can this be stopped. Like Glen Stevens parting remark to Turnbull this week. "Borrow more and spend". It's times like that when you need to pinch yourself to make sure this is not a dream or better stated a nightmare.
Retail sales, jobs, GDP all irrelevant in the world of make believe central banking. This ship is going down - they can delay it, they can disguise it, but no way can this be stopped. Like Glen Stevens parting remark to Turnbull this week. "Borrow more and spend". It's times like that when you need to pinch yourself to make sure this is not a dream or better stated a nightmare.
Topherclaus
Active Member
BulkCoins15 said:
I don't think Leon is necessarily against PMs, he does make calls in both directions. They're just nearly always wrong. The old adage, "a dead clock is right twice per day" seems to reign pretty true here.
I think we can all see that this market is becoming more volatile and there's no harm claiming money on a short. Just nobody here believes Leon even does the trading that he claims to and we get SICK of his random calls with caps lock on when it is based on NOTHING.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Some approach.Topherclaus said:
This is predicting.
The subject of the prediction here, is based on human trading behaviour in time.
That is, never "sure".
A prediction always contains an error.
Criticism (positive and negative) should be based on the "degree" of the error.
In this subject, that "degree" of error is time based.
So, the question is not right or wrong, but by how much time units, was the predictor "off" - wrong.
In both directions (sooner or later). An event that occurred 2 days earlier or 2 days later than predicted is a same error.
On this basis, predictors that are 2 years wrong are 24 times worser than predictors that are 1 month wrong.
And additional, there is another basis: the judgers' basis.
Not any speculator, lying (misleading) or not, makes calls in just one direction.
The terms "permabull" and "permabear" are logical flaws.
What matters for a speculator is the trend part that deviates from the monetary inflation pivot (expansion / contraction) trend. Terms of purchasing power.
That part, is a zero sum story in two ways: a profit implies a loss, and a trend is bound to be undone.
What remains as difference is just that same element again: time.
A speculator can sell / buy on day, weeks, months, years, decades terms.
Your (and others) criticism here entirely misses the point.
You said "a dead clock is right twice per day".
Per day.
That's the term you chosed.
You should realize that there are other clocks here. That spin 'round on weeks, months, ...
And that Leons error could be much smaller, on his term.
For ex,
if Leon acquired start 2016 a long exposure to the gold price,
and his prediction error near the end of the trend is 1 month,
and the price drop during that month is 5% of the price increase during 7 earlier months,
then (if he also acted according to the prediction) he lost 5% from the gain, leaving a success of 95%
http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-940119.html#p940119
2016-07-29 19:53:38 Open short position on gold @1354.5 USD/oz
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au2016D.gif
2016-08-12 1352.2 USD/oz
About the same.
It's not because 2 weeks have passed since the prediction, that the short lost.
Gain and loss, is defined by the price difference, not the time difference, between trading acts.
So Leon's prediction is so far still right "enough".
You also blame randomness in calling.
Well, there is another one here, (I think it was a nick "SilverSale") that posted 3 price predictions over this same period, first down, then up, then again down.
That is random, it's not even predicting anymore, just like a weathercock: doesn't predict the future just shows the present.
Now, the problem, which seems to be an eternal one here, is that nobody adds his speculative horizon / time period to the prediction.
Causing speculators with different terms to place them on theirs.
A predictor should say like "I purchased gold at last $1200, it rose to $1300 and now I think that will be the max, so I sold."
Which would make clear without digging what the predictions time basis is.
Then people that bought at $1290 would know that a loss for them not necessarily means a loss for the predictor.
masmas
New Member
leon1998 said:Wednesday if gold pops after FOMC annoucement, short it.
Hopefully gold can get closer to 1,400 usd/oz
Well, It seems that it will be more expensive than that:
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/2016...-predicts-gold-price-hit-10000-per-ounce.html
Can anyone share any comments and suggestion if that expert comment is true or worthwhile to follow ?
Nobody really knows what the future holds, and anyone claiming they do should generally be avoided because they're probably a charlatan.
Ask 20 people on this forum and you'll get 20 different answers.
That said, I am personally bullish on gold in the medium to long term, but it's had a good run this year so it needs a correction or consolidation for a while before I think it will go higher.
Good luck and DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
Ask 20 people on this forum and you'll get 20 different answers.
That said, I am personally bullish on gold in the medium to long term, but it's had a good run this year so it needs a correction or consolidation for a while before I think it will go higher.
Good luck and DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
masmas
New Member
leon1998 said:09:15AM The Fed: Fed's Fischer: 'We are close to our targets'
08:46AM The Fed: Yellen to say 'ready' for another rate hike in Jackson Hole
Looks like the Fed is going to hammer gold price down, to Jackson Hole next week
Is that confirmed or just a plan ?
Leon, would you be able to share the website for that ?
That was the news feed from finviz dot com. 
masmas said:leon1998 said:09:15AM The Fed: Fed's Fischer: 'We are close to our targets'
08:46AM The Fed: Yellen to say 'ready' for another rate hike in Jackson Hole
Looks like the Fed is going to hammer gold price down, to Jackson Hole next week
Is that confirmed or just a plan ?
Leon, would you be able to share the website for that ?
My strategy has always been, short the paper and buy the physical.
Federal Reserve and Cartel handed money to me so that I can buy physical. I appreciate the freebies. :lol:
Federal Reserve and Cartel handed money to me so that I can buy physical. I appreciate the freebies. :lol:
JulieW said:leon1998 said:Looks like a smackdown on gold price just happened moments ago.
1,329 usd/oz down by 8 bucks
Zero Hedge
masmas
New Member
By election time in the United States you will see Gold and Silver soar so fast that you will not even believe it!
Don't be fooled by these short drops in Gold and Silver prices it's all a smoke screen!
The market is gonna get a big correction, silver is being used on so many tech products that it's mind boggling, China will be going ape crazy buying gold and in India they will be gold buying for those weddings soon too!
Don't let August & September fool you!
Did you ever see a volcano explode?
Well get ready because precious metal prices will be taking of like a rocket into outer space!
I would not shock me to see gold at $2,000 and silver at $85 by New Years!
Don't be scared the boat is being rocked it will not sink!
Don't be fooled by these short drops in Gold and Silver prices it's all a smoke screen!
The market is gonna get a big correction, silver is being used on so many tech products that it's mind boggling, China will be going ape crazy buying gold and in India they will be gold buying for those weddings soon too!
Don't let August & September fool you!
Did you ever see a volcano explode?
Well get ready because precious metal prices will be taking of like a rocket into outer space!
I would not shock me to see gold at $2,000 and silver at $85 by New Years!
Don't be scared the boat is being rocked it will not sink!