Next two weeks pivotal for precious metals

they chop the fund investors,

mining companies, must pay the bank and get their back side drill. that was part of doing business.
 
Caput Lupinum said:
US non-farm payroll out tonight. Market is expecting a figure of 180k and wage growth of 0.2%.

If it's a decent miss and last month's 287k figure gets revised downward, it should be enough to propel gold through the $1376 resistance level that is been stuck at. It would also help if wage growth misses as well. If it's a beat or the figures come in as expected gold should sell off towards the $1350 level.

Trading the EUR/USD and the AUD/USD currency pairs

10:30pm AEST
Click to expand...

Numbers came in at 255k, last month's number were revised up to 292k and wage growth came in at 0.3% causing gold to sell off immediately to the $1350 level and the USD to rise against the other currencies
 
Looks like the algos took out the stops at $1350 gold with a low of $1340 and $20 silver with a low of $19.75. At least we're seeing some action, this consolidation is boring.
 
Pirocco said:
No, when silver rose from $30 to $50 it was entirely due to the cash market. For ex SLV reached a peak of 366 Moz in april 2011.
This is all ETF's:
2004 0.0 $6.6711
2005 0.0 $7.3164
2006 126.8 $11.5452
2007 54.8 $13.3836
2008 101.3 $14.9891
2009 156.9 $14.6733
2010 129.5 $20.1928
2011 -24.0 $35.1192
2012 55.3 $31.1497
2013 2.5 $20.0858
2014 1.5
2015 -17.7
Notice how before 2011, ETF's were big adders.
Notice how despite that SLV peak in april 2011, the year ended with the opposite: 24 Moz down instead.
In the month may 2011 alone, SLV alone dropped 50 Moz.
Alot on the cash market, hammered their SELL buttons.
The $32 > $49 runup is, with its $17 delta, and 70 Moz per price dollar, a 1190 Moz supply/demand change.
Take into account that this is a SUPPLY/DEMAND CHANGE
For ex, if SUPPLY would increase 600 Moz, and DEMAND would drop 600 Moz, then the price effect would combine to 1200 Moz.

To summarize:
1) The futures hedges price component/effect is total net position not open interest, so 107K instead of 218K.
2) $30 > $50 didn't need 2 billion ounces silver, "just" a supply increase of 600 Moz combined with a demand drop of 600 Moz.
3) The futures market isn't the only possible price driver, the cash market is the second, and as in 2011, can overrule the futures market.
That's how it works monopolize.
Click to expand...

Just one more question Pirocco, where did the demand drop of 600 million oz and supply increase of 600 million oz come from?

The etf's were only adding about 100-150 million oz plus the drop off in Indian demand of 100 million oz, so that's a physical demand drop off of 250 million oz. So to account for the other 950 million oz of demand drop/supply increase, it would have to come from the futures market, which would equate to 190,000 contracts. But in your chart the change was only 50,000 contracts, which leaves 700 million oz of demand drop/ supply increase unaccounted for.

So it still doesn't explain to me how it works.
 
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