Newcrest Mining (NCM)

News Update - 11 June 2013

New Gold Bug Conspiracy Theory; Who Knew What, And When, About Newcrest?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtrea...theory-who-knew-what-and-when-about-newcrest/

*A stock which sold at $40 (A$42) just two years ago Newcrest crashed back to a nine-year low of $10.80 on Friday triggering cries of foul from wounded investors and aggrieved stockbrokers who believed they had been left out of an information loop by Newcrest management.

*What particularly irritated outsiders was a series of well-timed downgrades from five big broking houses, using well-polished crystal balls, in the 72 hours before Newcrest admitted to deep financial problems that include a $5.7 billion asset-value write-down.

*A prominent Sydney stockbroker with the firm of Bell Potter, was furious about the early warnings issued by some of his rivals, claiming that five investment banks had issued downgrades on the stock ahead of the company's announcement.

*ASIC has confirmed that it is looking at the timing of the Newcrest announcement, and the near-spontaneous downgrades by brokers before the asset write-downs and dividend cancellation was officially reported by the company.

Read more of how the events took place.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtrea...theory-who-knew-what-and-when-about-newcrest/


H
 
SilverSanchez said:
You 2c is kinda like your div cheque ;)
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yeah its funny
I used to own quite a few shares I made a typo when selling and was left with 1 share

it was going to cost me more to sell it so I have kept it and it gives me lols each time I get a cheque for a ew cents. Or full colour company pospectsus in the mail.
 
SilverSanchez said:
I dont think mismanagment nessesarily - it may have been a simple state for pushing forward projects a little longer than they should have.

I cant stand people who are smug because they have little or no exposure in the face of people who are doing it tough. Its completely insensitive and unhelpful (not you wrcmad)
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Im not smug I have taken a hit in other areas (phys comes to mind) and it pisses me off when people look at "low" prices and pretend they are happy that they have lost 30%+ on thir asset and declair "back the truck up" im going to buy more.
 
Court Jester said:
SilverSanchez said:
You 2c is kinda like your div cheque ;)
Click to expand...

yeah its funny
I used to own quite a few shares I made a typo when selling and was left with 1 share

it was going to cost me more to sell it so I have kept it and it gives me lols each time I get a cheque for a ew cents. Or full colour company pospectsus in the mail.
Click to expand...

If you ever get tired of laughing at your dividend cheque, you could donate your 1 remaining share to charity, for example http://www.sharegiftaustralia.org.au/ :)
 
Holdfast said:
News Update - 11 June 2013

*ASIC has confirmed that it is looking at the timing of the Newcrest announcement, and the near-spontaneous downgrades by brokers before the asset write-downs and dividend cancellation was officially reported by the company.

H
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ASIC has more interest in investigating food labeling than a real rort, which this undoubtedly is.

As to NCM, as hammered as the price has already been, there is more to come. Take another 50% off the price and they might be worth a look.
 
Update 13 June 2013

Class-action threat for Newcrest

*The potential threat of class actions emerged as Newcrest attempted to stare down criticism of its handling of last Friday's production and profit downgrade.

*A raft of broker downgrades preceded the Friday announcement, sending Newcrest shares in to a tailspin.

*Newcrest sought to defuse the issue by stating that it itself only became aware of the price-sensitive information at "the conclusion of the board's annual business plan review and budget approval process on the morning of Friday".

*Any follow-up action on the subject by regulators now rests with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission.

*Law firm Maurice Blackburn has been the first to say it is investigating a class action against Newcrest for "potential breaches of continuous disclosure laws".


*Newcrest shares down from $15.15 a share on June 4 to a closing price last Thursday of $13.36 a share. Newcrest sank further yesterday, falling to $11.93 a share.

More info:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...eat-for-newcrest/story-fn91v9q3-1226662775513


Newcrest's Response Letter To The ASX

*The sharp deterioration in the gold price (largest in 30 years) in April 2013.

*Operating currencies.

*Elevated operating costs.

*Etc and the standard blah, bla reply to the ASX.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130612/pdf/42gf50p71mnccx.pdf


H
 
Witch hunt on nothing but circumstantial evidence.

Jaw-boning the price down so they can buy it? Looks like a shake-out
I personally dont see any evidence that NCM managment have done anything wrong so far.
So either bring hard evidence Mr.Media or get stuffed, and let the SP recover
 
jparrie said:
As to NCM, as hammered as the price has already been, there is more to come. Take another 50% off the price and they might be worth a look.
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Perhaps Newcrest would be a Take-over target well before that occurred.

The worlds largest miners would be drawing up battle plans right now to snap up Newcrest.

My bet would be the Chinese making a play for Newcrest.

Chinese companies are snapping up overseas gold mines in their quest to become international giants like Canada's Barrick Gold Corp.
Chinese miners are taking advantage of depressed company valuations to boost gold reserves by acquiring mines.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/03/gold-still-gleams-for-chinas-miners/
 
Newmont Mining is down 50% has a similar Market Cap to NCM
But they pay a bigger div.

"Law firm Maurice Blackburn" have nothing but dollar signs in their eyes, and looking to cash in on angry herd investors, who want NCM's share price to behave like woolworths
 
SilverSanchez said:
Newmont Mining is down 50% has a similar Market Cap to NCM
But they pay a bigger div.

"Law firm Maurice Blackburn" have nothing but dollar signs in their eyes, and looking to cash in on angry herd investors, who want NCM's share price to behave like woolworths
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Exactly, that's their business, just like it's the business of other groups to drive down the share price so they can buy it up cheaply.

It's all a big game for big boys and ain't for the faint hearted or those that don't know what they are doing.

Hope you are doing ok SilverSanchez.

Newcrest has plenty of proven reserves but it's difficult for large companies to act quickly. Management have a big task ahead of them, because the Vultures are soaring over-head.

imo, Newcrest is already a takeover target which for some is good news, for others it's not so good depending how a new business model would be applied to NCM. Not saying that they are going to be taken-over but if gold drops further, Newcrest may get hammered by the media and the groups already mentioned in this thread.

Just as gold got smashed in April by the big boys, it's that sort of power that small investors always have to be aware of.

When I traded gold stocks years back, I made it a rule that if the company I invested in had my capital down less than 10% I'd stop-loss and then re-assess. Many new investors follow stocks down until they are so shite-scared of losing everything they actually take the loss to realise a capital loss. Lets hope not too many of our forum members are in that situation.
imo, it's always better to buy stock on the way up, not on the way down. And...fwiw, take your profits often, especially on the miners who don't pay dividends; sure Newcrest "did" but...just saying.


Personally, I think the big boys will continue to hit gold to break the back of the weak, the strong hands will see this as a good longterm buy...follow the Chinese, they are savvy.

The currency wars have not changed, they've got worse, the worlds debt is getting worse, the smashing of gold to make the USD look good is the FED's way of making-out everything is dandy and the USA is on the road to recovery.

I say BS the USA is on a road to recovery, infact, just the opposite.

Best of luck.

H
 
This is just noise.
Gold could possibly strike back to $1150 in the next year or so.
Lots of bad news for NCM.
Lets get into perspective.
The gold is still in the ground......Once the gold price resumes its push to new highs....all what happens now will be irrelevent.
The company is big enough to hold on for years at this level. It will not go broke tomorrow.
Once that gold price moves above a critical price, the share price will accelerate rapidly.
This is the once in a hundred year flood we always hear about but in time the sun will shine again on NCM.
Bring on all the bad news now I say because it will provide the opportunities that we can talk to our grandchildren about in years to come.
"Whats that Granddad...you bought Newcrest under $10.....no wayyyyy..."
 
This is an interesting thread. I've been watching NCM for a while now. What's the general consensus, is this the time to buy in?
 
I would wait until the share price gets above and holds 12.25 for three trading days.

You are buying risk if you are buying now. Wait till all the crap is all over. You might miss some upside - but if you dont have a possition to defend like I do - no one is going to turn the stock around on their own.

If anyone buys out Newcrest I hope its BHP, Newcrwest has an enormous amount of copper for a gold miner.
 
bigcountry said:
This is an interesting thread. I've been watching NCM for a while now. What's the general consensus, is this the time to buy in?
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i bought into NCM today at the opening and copped a -3% loss for doing so
 
PNG's Prime Minister calls for talks with Newcrest Mining

*Newcrest last week, announced a $6 billion reduction in the value of its assets with around half of the writedown coming from Newcrest's PNG operations.

*Prime minister Peter O'Neill has expressed concern at the problems facing Newcrest and the implications for the PNG economy and the resources sector.

*Resources are the PNG government's major revenue stream, allowing the government to boost spending this year on health, education, infrastucture and law and order by 50 per cent

*Newcrest is the largest operator in PNG's mining sector.

*It is vital the company continues to make a contribution through its Lihir and Hidden Valley gold mines and other projects.

*Newcrest PNG country manager, Peter Aitsi says - We anticipate continued increases in Lihir's performance so...confident enough to say it is heading in the right direction."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-...-calls-for-talks-with-newcrest-mining/4752630


So, lets see what will happen to the Lihir mine. (For those who have been following Newcrest for many years, they know that although Lihir has plenty of gold, it's been a very challenging mine)

I'd say if the mine doesn't increase performance as anticipated it's likely to be mothballed. (That's strictly my opinion and I'm probably wrong, so DYODD)

Having said that, I think it's fair to say that if the gold price dips for a few more weeks or months, Newcrest have already advised that they are going to tighten the purse strings, so...anythings on the cards really.

Perhaps if revenue is reduced for the PNG Government, they may do it tough for awhile which "could", have a negative sentiment towards NCM.

Lets all hope the gold price recovers quickly or atleast by September 2013; we shall see.

Best of luck to all.

H
 
SilverSanchez said:
Witch hunt on nothing but circumstantial evidence.

Jaw-boning the price down so they can buy it? Looks like a shake-out
I personally dont see any evidence that NCM managment have done anything wrong so far.
So either bring hard evidence Mr.Media or get stuffed, and let the SP recover
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News keeps getting worse for Newcrest.

Email correspondence obtained by The Australian Financial Review suggests Newcrest Mining Ltd management met with an equity analyst and discussed the lower outlook for gold production ahead of publicly announcing significant writedowns and spending cuts..............

One email obtained by the AFR shows that Newcrest management met with an equity analyst ahead of the announcement, leading to an email being sent from the analyst's bank to a fund manager, Prasad Patkar of Platypus Fund Management.

Platypus accurately predicted the scope of the Newcrest gold production downgrade one day ahead of the announcement.
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source: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-and-energy/emails-suggest-newcrest-briefings
 
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