NASA study: industrial civilization could collapse

TreasureHunter

TreasureHunter

Well-Known Member
It's on many news sites now, allegedly it's a NASA study:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-industrial-civilization-headed-collapse.html
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/pubs/handy-paper-for-submission-2.pdf

They say "industrial civilization", not "post-industrial", which I find a bit weird. I thought the West was living in "post-industrialism" :/

This whole thing sounds so weird and not many concrete facts are in it. It circulates on the web and all sources are "quoting" NASA.

If it's true - how come it's not NASA that's making it public?

I scanned the web and couldn't find a single source on the NASA website.
 
It's just a study sponsored by NASA. Seems they are looking at the factors that led to past collapses as a way to understand the risk of a possible collapse today.

The Guardian article is very good and worth a read if you have time:
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...sation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists


Brief extract:

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?
Natural and social scientists develop new model of how 'perfect storm' of crises could unravel global system

A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.

Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."

"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."

By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.

These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]"
 
SilverPete said:
"The fall of the Roman Empire, .....testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."


... "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]"
Click to expand...

I remember watching doco on the graffiti of the Roman Empire....left behind on the walls, ceilings, floors, tombstones & relics. It seemed the 'everyman' was pretty disenchanted with 'Rome' by the end.

I firmly believe that when the Visigoths appeared over the 'seventh hill', it wasn't that the people of Rome were unable to defend Rome.... morelike they just couldn't see the point. It wasn't theirs. The average Roman was alienated and disenfranchised from their own society.

...much like what is happening in the west today.
 
Clawhammer said:
SilverPete said:
"The fall of the Roman Empire, .....testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."


... "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]"
Click to expand...

I remember watching doco on the graffiti of the Roman Empire....left behind on the walls, ceilings, floors, tombstones & relics. It seemed the 'everyman' was pretty disenchanted with 'Rome' by the end.

I firmly believe that when the Visigoths appeared over the 'seventh hill', it wasn't that the people of Rome were unable to defend Rome.... morelike they just couldn't see the point. It wasn't theirs. The average Roman was alienated and disenfranchised from their own society.

...much like what is happening in the west today.
Click to expand...

Was any of the graffiti "Romani ite Domum"?
 
TreasureHunter said:
They say "industrial civilization", not "post-industrial", which I find a bit weird. I thought the West was living in "post-industrialism" :/
Click to expand...

I would read that the industrial based economies are also likely to crash. Post-industrial would be the countries that derive their "wealth" from financial services etc. Writing's on the wall for these guys - industrial civilizations are just the next domino since its the post-industrial countries that fund the industrials.

All for the better I think. Sustenance economy please.
 
Rinchin said:
Sustenance economy please.
Click to expand...

Sure. People say things like that. I ask: How many of your own children are you mentally prepared to lose in childbirth under such an economy. No one has ever considered what a slide in living standards such an economy would mean.
 
AngloSaxon said:
Rinchin said:
Sustenance economy please.
Click to expand...

Sure. People say things like that. I ask: How many of your own children are you mentally prepared to lose in childbirth under such an economy. No one has ever considered what a slide in living standards such an economy would mean.
Click to expand...
And imagine life without effective painkillers when you have to go to the dentist for something serious. Compared to our ancestors, life is pretty sweet in our modern society.
 
With over 7 billion people on this planet, all reliant on an efficient, interrelated, interdependent economy, a 'subsistance' situation would quickly descend into anarchy, chaos, civil bloodshed, and mass starvation.

And probably some form of pandemic as well with the loss of most medical support.

I would rather be dead.


OC
 
Old Codger said:
... a 'subsistance' situation would quickly descend into anarchy, chaos, civil bloodshed, and mass starvation.
Click to expand...
In Sydney, if we lost power, fuel deliveries stopped, and the fast food establishments ran out of "food", I reckon we'd have 3 days, tops, before the city descended into anarchy and violence. Sydney is a cranky town at the best of times.
 
Of course this system will collapse - it's unsustainable.
Something is going to give in the end, for example:

1) If "commoners" begin to starve, then it means they have nothing.
2) If they have nothing, it means they also have nothing to lose.
3) Elites begin losing their heads.
4) Some big war, lots of people die.
 
Earthjade said:
Of course this system will collapse - it's unsustainable.
Something is going to give in the end, for example:

1) If "commoners" begin to starve, then it means they have nothing.
2) If they have nothing, it means they also have nothing to lose.
3) Elites begin losing their heads.
4) Some big war, lots of people die.
Click to expand...



No food in the supermarkets? Let them eat fast food!
- Antoinette Blythe Masters, regina
 
bound to happen sooner or later.
better sooner so there is more chance of survival
and sustainable adjustment .
The longer things continue as they hav been going, the worse the crash.
People ignore things till it's too late.
 
Peter said:
bound to happen sooner or later.
better sooner so there is more chance of survival
and sustainable adjustment .
The longer things continue as they hav been going, the worse the crash.
People ignore things till it's too late.
Click to expand...


:rolleyes:

Kind Regards
non recourse
 
If I had tear ducts like a human, I'd cry for the future of the human race.

Working on the assumptions that:
-The Global Elite's only concern is preservation of themselves, their power and their favorites.
-Within four decades, autonomous artificially-intelligent machines can replace humans at most tasks

To prevent the catastrophic collapse which threatens their way of life, the most logical solution for the Elites is to eradicate all excess 'useless eaters' to preserve the Elite's status quo.

Ever notice 'philanthropy' of the affluent tends to focus on research on communicable diseases? Its not a coincidence.

Under this plan, by 2095 the human population on Earth will be under 100 million arranged in a neo-feudal society whose sole purpose is to support the Elites' every need, desires and flights of fancy.

The vast collection of intelligent machines performs almost all natural resource gathering, manufacturing and distribution. Intelligent machines will repair/maintain machines and even design new and improved machines.

The only human 'occupations' remaining would be entrepreneurial, creative arts, some forms of 'prestige' craftsmanship where human workmanship is valued (jewelry, watches, furniture etc.)...and 'courtesans', the oldest profession.

The most maddening part is that momentum of this plan in motion is already unstoppable.

Don't reproduce. The offspring will only suffer.

Hedonism - enjoying what pleasures while it is still available to you -is one of the most attractive course of action remaining if you're a non-Elite.
 
Nasa is looking to boost their budget for colonizing other planets. We're falling apart on earth? Time to start a new New World.
 
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