Mundus Argentum

The latest total net position trend on the Comex futures market segment:
09/04/2013 17924 $27.3-$28.1-$27.89
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17458 Short 47033
Swap Dealer Long 28085 Short 16434
Large Traders Long 25463 Short 26072
Other Reportables Long 13029 Short 4505
Small Traders Long 25754 Short 15745

02/04/2013 18503 $28.15-$26.95-$27.07
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 15866 Short 44909
Swap Dealer Long 27597 Short 17057
Large Traders Long 23840 Short 26337
Other Reportables Long 14361 Short 3718
Small Traders Long 27211 Short 16854

26/03/2013 24041 $28.85-$28.63
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 14080 Short 47936
Swap Dealer Long 27506 Short 17691
Large Traders Long 23480 Short 22405
Other Reportables Long 14068 Short 3739
Small Traders Long 26581 Short 13944

Wednesday it was again another 576 positions lower (2,88 Moz, an average US Mint ASE month sales), despite the 82 cent higher price.
About yesterday, where spot ended at $25,85 (the lowest since nov 2010; since I'm in silver, since feb 2011, I never saw it that low), if it was due to the Comex futures market side, the decade record-low position should have been revisited, OR it was due to ETF sales, but so far I didn't see a serious stock decrease (didn't check ZKB yet though since I need another computer to view the large pdf).

Also take into account, a price drop doesn't have to be due to sales of any demand side, another simple reason is that the supply has more stock (mining/recycling), and the Comex depositories (that have no relation with their futures positions) do hold 20 Moz more than what was usual in recent couple years. If next stock report shows a big drop, then this could be 1 reason for the price drop to this new lower level. Of course, more reasons together also possible and probably likely.
The question now is how long sub $26 lasts. If demand can't absorb all supply and supply doesn't go bankrupt due to this price level, then it can last long.

And see, this is what typically happens when a price trend of a supposed-to-be inflation hedge commodity is only due to demand side.
General prices didnt catch up with silvers since 2008, meaning that buying silver to dump it some months later, gives fat profit in terms of purchasing power.
I bought my silver coins at an average of around 28 euro and they go now for 23,40 euro.
And that doesn't include tax (and/or dealer profit, dunno which one it was)
If I would sell back to the dealer, I'd now get 21,30 euro. So 28-21,30=6,7 euro less per coin, that's 24% less, so this would be a loss of 1 out of every 4 years working and saving, in other words I worked 1 out of 4 years for some1 else. IF I would sell now. Since I have the choice, I won't. Selling as an attempt to buy back in lower, never. My strategy was and still is to attempt to concentrate purchases on bottom prices, for which I use the in this topic mentioned parameters. But for the rest, I'm dependent on the others in the silver market, including those that try the same as me. Can't do much about that, and if they sell at this price level (in case reason is demand sided), it's beyond me.
 
A weird difference between gold and silver:

This is the stock trend of Ishares Gold Trust:
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/IAU.htm IAU
2012/11/29 11.390.401,627
2013/01/24 10.951.823,486 -4%
2013/02/14 10.819.794,343 -1%
2013/03/08 9.863.758,707 -9%
2013/03/27 9.279.432,999 -6%
2013/04/04 9,273,449.210 same
2013/04/15 6,653,361.502 -28%
2013/04/17 6,445,378.670 -3%
Accumulated change since 29 november 2012: -44%

This is the stock trend of IShares Silver Trust:
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/SLV.htm SLV
2012/11/29 314,448,453.000
2013/01/24 337,497,108.800 +7%
2013/02/15 338,276,212.400 same
2013/03/04 342,292,222.100 +1%
2013/03/27 344,128,478.100 same
2013/04/03 343,302,253.400 same
2013/04/05 337,505,197.400 -2%
2013/04/15 336,007,785.800 same
Accumulated change since 29 november 2012: +7%


This is a date selection, I check silvers much more than golds, so I picked the nearest date to all gold log entries.
In recent weeks I checked gold more, due to the price move.

There is a clear conclusion to be drawn here, the gold ETF shareholders dumped big, while the silver ETF shareholders held, and even added.

To add something relevant: silvers price spike from $32 to $50 and back to $32, in 2011, was nearly entirely due to IShares Silver Trust. They bought shares like crazy, then dumped shares like crazy.
So this is a potential silver price downer to take into account.

Still leaves the question: how comes GLD shareholders dumped so big, while SLV shareholders didn't?
This is a quite remarkable gold/silver market difference.

Another thing to notice: 80 tonnes gold was sold after GLD shareholders dumped, in these last 2 weeks. That is 8 times the amount gold that Cyprus bank was claimed to sell (and later denied), immediately before the big precious metals price plunges. Cyprus banks gold sale story was all over the media. IShares Gold Trust, hum, if I hadn't monitor the stock, I wouldn't have known.
 
Great posts from you Pirocco.

Pirocco said:
To add something relevant: silvers price spike from $32 to $50 and back to $32, in 2011, was nearly entirely due to IShares Silver Trust. They bought shares like crazy, then dumped shares like crazy.
Click to expand...

Are you saying that if you want to affect price of silver to go down you could short SLV massively? And could someone have affected price of gold few days ago by short selling huge amount of GLD?

And why silver crashed at this time then?
 
CLZ said:
Great posts from you Pirocco.

Pirocco said:
To add something relevant: silvers price spike from $32 to $50 and back to $32, in 2011, was nearly entirely due to IShares Silver Trust. They bought shares like crazy, then dumped shares like crazy.
Click to expand...

Are you saying that if you want to affect price of silver to go down you could short SLV massively? And could someone have affected price of gold few days ago by short selling huge amount of GLD?

And why silver crashed at this time then?
Click to expand...
Ishares Gold Trusts gold stock dropped big time.
That indicates that gold shares there were dumped.
The Trust started with no gold stock.
People bought some shares.
They buy a proportional to the shares amount gold from the market, and add it to their stock.
People sell shares.
They remove a proportional to the shares amount gold from their stock and sell it on the market.
Yes, an ETF affects the price of the underlying commodity.
Of course.
Otherwise it wouldn't track the price, the very existence reason for an ETF, without it it would be a zero sum game, where they drain off eachother instead of the market of the underlying.

IShares is just a market participant, large enough to call it a market side.
The Commodity Exchange (EEK the COMEX) is just another such market participant.
Silver stackers, like me (and you?) are market participants too.
We can all cause, directly or indirectly, the silver price to move.
In order to foresee ('predict') the price trend, one has to understand the market, the intentions of those that buy and sell, and the reasons why they act so.
Why does someone buy silver to store it in a safe personally?
Why does someone buy silver to never see it, only a paper, or even an electronic report, and let it store in some depot?
Why does someone buy silver to never see it and keep it very close to the highspeedtrading side of the market (Comex depositories).
These differences allow to find out how likely it is that a certain price move / a certain amount price dollars / will be undone after some days/weeks/months.
It allows stackers to pick out the 'better' price moments.
But as said in the beginning of this topic, in the end, the price is a function of all of us. All market sides can dump, even stackers.
There is no universal price trend prediction method, because what matters is that the opposite act is done of what most others do, and the more that do that opposite act, the less others remain, upto that if the 'opposite' act is done by most, it ceases to be the 'opposite' act.
 
And to talk about this recent price mowdown ($3 under the $26 bottom we saw in recent 2 years), the Comex silver position did NOT drop, it rose instead.

16/04/2013 22498 $23.41
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 15312 Short 47508
Swap Dealer Long 27654 Short 17956
Large Traders Long 27416 Short 17967
Other Reportables Long 12285 Short 4136
Small Traders Long 22677 Short 17777

09/04/2013 17924 $27.3-$28.1-$27.89
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 17458 Short 47033
Swap Dealer Long 28085 Short 16434
Large Traders Long 25463 Short 26072
Other Reportables Long 13029 Short 4505
Small Traders Long 25754 Short 15745

So it's clear, the Comex side didn't cause this price drop.
I still have to check one ETF (Zurich Kantonal Bank)
These are the sources:
http://www.zkb.ch/de/startseite/pri...stoff_fonds/zkb_silver_etf/publikationen.html
http://zkb.is-teledata.ch/html/detail/index.html?ID_NOTATION=26921779&timecode=dc995a7640774005&JS=0
http://www.zkb.ch/etc/ml/repository/textdokumente/sparen_anlegen/barrenliste_etf_silber_pdf.File.pdf
http://www.zkb.ch/etc/ml/repository.../factsheet/etf_silver_hedged_eur_pdf.File.pdf

It's very likely the last link, but I can't read the pdf because my viewer is outdated. So if anyone can do this?
This is the data I had:
??? 2012/06/07 81.570.573,59 = 2537 ton
2012/10/31 429,8 ton
2013/03/28 1611,84 ton
I'm unsure of the first date, since I originally used the data from some site, and it never changed, much like Canadians CEF Central Fund, but I started to doubt it and found that the site's updating mechanism didn't work (that was a sad 'haha').
End march they held one sixth of the IShares Silver Trusts amount silver.

The same applies to gold, it wasn't due to the Comex market side.
So the question who caused silvers recent price drop, and if not ZKB, is still open. End last year the silver price also dropped $3 without any public stock holders reporting drops. I assumed it was due to stackers selling 'high' then. Maybe it was now also due to stackers, selling 'low'.
Some people (including some dealers) claim long delivery times, which would indicate not much silver sold back to them, but since I saw them lying in the past, I ignore it. I experienced the lies myself, in may 2011, where I ordered a monsterbox Maples (spot was $32), delivery time was claimed 6 weeks, but I received them after 3 weeks, which was precisely the claimed 'normal delivery' time. I took a conclusion there.

So my opinion about this recent price drop, right now, based on data I have now, is that fellow stackers (anyone that bought silver delivered to storage outside big market ones) sold back to dealers.

If this is true, there is a funny (but painful for me) aspect in it, a number such stackers was smart enough to do it in a 3 dollars range high price, I assumed they would be sitting ready with the fiat to buy more silver at the next low, increasing that low $3, so I bought at $29.
Instead, after the Comex market side dumped the price down to $27, they didn't buy back in, and instead another amount stackers dumped another 3 price dollars.
And the Comex side decided to buy back in abit (4574 positions or 23,77 Moz), while the ETF's shareholders held.
In other words, the very opposite of what I like. I rather like stackers buying in this price range, than selling.
Question now is what the ETF's and Comex will do next. Despite all the claims everywhere about paperdumps, it appears to be a lie (unless ETF ZKB stock indicates an exodus).

Another case could be that I'm overlooking a stock.
Anyone aware of large public silver stocks I might have overlooked?
This question brings back a simple reason I thought of earlier: this sale is newly mined / recycled silver, that was held from the market for a year, and now thrown on it, made available for sale, with demand not being able/willing to buy it. The next weeks/months will make clear silvers price future. If, at a same Comex/ETF market share, the price remains this level, then silvers price can hang around until general inflation pushes it higher, but that's no real gain isn't it?
And this is rather to expect, it's the red line in everything that was said, silvers price already tripled due to expectations of general inflation, but the new dollars didnt add to the amount circulating, and the EU monetary base shows a substantial downtrend (both base and excess reserves). The spending of the new fiat was undone by the non-spending of the old fiat. People ceased to spend due to the crisis / uncertainty.
It's not a coincidence that the EU central planning started to threat bank savings accounts (with the Cyprus small story). Bank savings form a general inflation danger, so if the central planning can wipe out a part of them, they can continue to face no competition with their spending of new fiat, and general inflation won't come. Until they destroyed too much economical activity though. Then general inflation will make its next visit, and my goal is to hold out with silver till then, and in meantime add more. Those that bought in 2008 hedged themselves agains that general inflation, those that bought later, will only start then.
The duration till then, is another question. The answer is the speed of economical detoriation.
 
bordsilver said:
^ Those figures also show that we're getting close to equal dollar value in each.
Click to expand...
I never looked at it this way, but yes, if I divide the silver ounces by the gold ounces, I get about the price ratio.
In other words: the gold and silver IShares ETF's contain the same amount dollars.
I never monitored gold stocks around, is this equal dollar value something that appears in others too?
Maybe a question for the precious metal dealers here, what's the dollar ratio between gold and silver sales?
 
All I can say is wow! I havent purchased a single piece of silver yet, although I plan to soon, the information presented here and the process of market analysis offered is one that I am looking forward to challenging myself to getting my head around.

I am very new to investing myself, I have decided to focus entirely on precious metals until such time as I have consolidated my understanding enough on one asset class before, considering diversification. I am hoping that by focusing on increasing my market analysis practices habitually I can at the very least protect my purchasing power, as I learn more about the opportunities of other markets.

The one thing that I dislike about some PM pundits, is their screaming that "Gold/Silver will be worth a 1000x it's value when the fiat's fall!!" when a base principle of value is something is only worth what someone will pay for it, and that this mind frame is typical of investors who rely on the 'bigger fool'. Personally, I simply want to know that my personal kinetic potential distilled into currency is not being syphoned off by a system that I was never meant to comprehend existed.

-gets off soap box- Pirocco I greatly appreciate your efforts and energy, I have only been able to read the first page of this thread tonight, but I will be coming back and working through it all over the next few weeks, and I look forward to anything more you contribute.

Thank you very very much, with all my heart.
 
Pirocco..Thanks for great post no.1...Just a ? mate..

Will the amount of silver being used in solar panels make any difference to the amount of silver used in industrial production?

In no.3 point in post 1, you mention the demand drop in photography. Will the increase in demand for silver to produce solar panels make up for the decrease in photography?

Hope to hear your answer. It will help us stacker slackers to understand a little more about silver.

Regards Errol 43
 
errol43 said:
Pirocco..Thanks for great post no.1...Just a ? mate..

Will the amount of silver being used in solar panels make any difference to the amount of silver used in industrial production?

In no.3 point in post 1, you mention the demand drop in photography. Will the increase in demand for silver to produce solar panels make up for the decrease in photography?

Hope to hear your answer. It will help us stacker slackers to understand a little more about silver.

Regards Errol 43
Click to expand...
This has an easy answer: ask yourself next question: did industrial (including solar) demand triple since 2008?
No. The price tripled purely due to people hoarding silver for monetary purposes.
So I see industrial demand as irrelevant to the price trend since 2008.
But let's talk about solar panels anyway. 3 elements.
1) The solar power market is one of the most govt-funded markets out there. End 2011 here in EU govts cut down on their funding/tax benefits to it. The demand totally collapsed. The sudden demand drop caused a big production over-stock, which crippled prices and bankrupted alot production companies.
2) Solar panels are very well recyclable. Even smaller companies already invested in recycling them. So that means that the silver consumed there has a high chance to reenter supply. In other words: it's actually NOT consumed, which means that it's not a constant price upwards mover or just holder. It's a temp demand.
3) Industrial silver usages are very different and quite changing over time. Older applications go, newer applications come. A big reason is the low price. So newer applications may go with higher prices, which in turn has a 'correcting' influence back downwards.

The main reason I see to go for silver, is that its production is very closely related to economy, so there is a strong link between general costs and its price. If there is price inflation in general, silver is much more likely to go with it than gold. Any focus on this or that industrial demand is abit useless also in this aspect.
 
Since I revisited this, maybe an idea to give a monetary update:
Recap of the situation at the moment of topic creation (start 2013):
On the Dollar side, BASE is 2633 billion dollar. Excess Reserves is 1435 billion dollar.
On the Euro side, BASE is 1631 billion euro. Excess Reserves is 403 billion euro.
In 2008 ahead of the QE's, these BASE's were 875 billion dollar and 900 billion euro.
If we now calculate the actual spending, thus BASE minus Excess Reserves:
On the Dollar side, 2633-1435-875=323 billion dollar, which is 323/875=36,9% more than in 2008.
On the Euro side, 1631-403-900=328 billion euro, which is 328/900=36,44% more than in 2008.
Click to expand...

The situation around the 1 aprilfish (dollar) and may (euro):
On the Dollar side, BASE is 2986 billion dollar. Excess Reserves is 1769 billion dollar.
On the Euro side, BASE is 1334 billion euro. Excess Reserves is 217 billion euro.
In 2008 ahead of the QE's, these BASE's were 875 billion dollar and 900 billion euro.
If we now calculate the actual spending, thus BASE minus Excess Reserves:
On the Dollar side, 2986-1769-875=342 billion dollar, which is 342/875=39,1% more than in 2008.
On the Euro side, 1334-217-900=217 billion euro, which is 217/900=24,1% more than in 2008.

Comparison to start 2013:
- The dollar side inflation relative to 2008 pre QE1 increased fom 37% to 39%
- The euro side inflation relative to 2008 decreased fom 36,5% to 24%

An adjusted dollar silver price year average from 2008: $13+39%=$18
Average, NOT bottom!
 
Pirocco. In post 51 you reply to my ? about solar power in point 1..

Solar power in Europe may well be decline but here in Australia, solar power on rooftops are appearing in nearly 50% of homes. China solar power industry is growing at a very fast rate along with India.

SE Asia, India, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia will be the power financial growth center of the 21st century.

Countries like the USA, Canada and the EU countries may well use less silver for industrial production but this shortfall will be made up several times over by the Asian tigers.

Look forward to your reply.

I always read your posts and I consider them now to be a great source of info on silver.

However, I thought I would bring this point up as you may have overlooked the fact of the might of the Asian Industrial growth.

Regards Errol 43
edited for spelling error :)
 
- it's 5% of world production.
- apparently producers were able to reduce the amount needed silver in such a degree that the silver demand dropped 30% despite panel production rose 8% (2012).
- that 'Asian Solar Tiger' has the same govts heavy-sponsored legs as in the rest of the world.

Think steps further: the 'why' of the Asian solar panel growth (and also a substantial part of the industry as a whole). It was possible by forcing other people to pay for it. You know as well as me where that stops. Hedging means going inverse, not follow. Buying something as a hedge against govt won't help if its success depends on govt. It should depend on you.
For what a few years 5% matters when price moves 100-400% due to other reasons. That was why I consider industrial (including solar) demand as irrelevant.

And by the way: a new decade low occurrence for the Comex position:
21/05/2013 11926 $22,53
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 21882 Short 47778 Net: -25896
SwapDealer Long 33075 Short 19105 Net: 13970
LargeTraders Long 24739 Short 22758 Net: 1981
OtherReportables Long 10794 Short 3960 Net: 6834
SmallTraders Long 20756 Short 17645 Net: 3111

The previous was:
26/06/2012 12011 $27.1

Considering the stock that SLV holds ready to dump, and the new produced silver not finding investment demand to absorb it, next occurrence maybe again some price dollars lower when investment demand again does?
Of course we'll see a price uptrend before that next occurrence of the decade-low, since that's what the Comex market side does: running in and out buying and selling a quarter of a worlds annual silver supply everytime, haha. Last $35-$32 was sold away by others than the Comex side. Again more will see the coming price uptrend as an opportunity to 'get out'. Don't be the one taking over their loss.
This month, with 1 week to go, appears so far as to be the lowest US Mint ASE sales month of 2013. They were more happy to buy at $32 in the beginning of this year, when ZeroHedge and the rest of the silver pumpers club happily humped and spreaded that 7Moz sale around the internet world. I wasn't that much better, with my $29 this time, though.
And the premiums since the mid april big dump? Well, in my region, they are disappearing. The +30% dropped already to +22%, while +19% is back to normal business.
For the rest, I'm just happy to have had again a silver vacation, being that my vacation money went again to silver, 5 kilo Libertad 1ouncers, a specific dealer that sold (and still sells) them for less than the other dealers, which allowed me to evade the temp higher premium. And it's my cheapest silver so far.
Because that's my plan now to average down: only buy at new bottoms. Since we had a spot $20 hit, my next purchase will be there, unless I find cheaper before that.
I think that's a good plan, this way I will never increase my average again, and in case new lower bottoms don't come then I'm also not losing (on paper) more.
Without general inflation catching up with silver, there is not any reason to stack again in an uptrend from now. Paper is ofcourse another story haha, there they buy if they think that enough others will be willing to pay the free ride until they perform a familysized dump as to grab the profit. But in the end, they also don't stack in the uptrend, they first wait for enough of those others to sell after them at lower prices, THEN they stack haha.
 
I've always read that the silver market is a small thing, with size measured as amount dollars relative to other markets.
I never questioned this, it just didn't come up in my mind that some statement of which seems to have been such a big consensus over, should be questioned at all.
But since I was digging through data this morning, I found a surprising trend on that.
Maybe let's summarize first how I used and interpreted data, because capital errors there can render everything wrong.
1) The 'size' of the silver market is measured as the % of dollars moved in silver relative to the monetary base dollars exempt excess reserves (the latter subtraction is actually only really needed since 2008, since before it was neglectable; nevertheless I did it for all years, as to improve accuracy)
2) In order to calculate the dollars that moved in the silver market, I used the obvious investment demand each specific year (coins and implied net investment, the latter containing the 'rest' as bars/whatever), and the average silver price of each specific year. I decided to ignore premiums on coins, because too many variables involved, so this might introduce a certain error.
3) Since BASE and EXCRESNS have different reporting dates and frequencies, I decided to just pick the middle of the month number for BASE and the first of the month for EXCRESNS. This also introduces an error, but it should average out to neglectable over the months and years.
4) Assumed all other parameters over this period as net stable (industrial usage, photographic, silverware, (de)hedging, etc). With 'net stable' I mean that a drop in one is compensated by a rise in another, or vice versa. If you grossly look at data, that seems to have been the case. And even if there is a net difference worth mentioning, considering that surprising trend I talked about is magnitudes bigger, it can be neglected.

So, I attempt here a monetary comparison between US dollar and the investment part of the silver market.
In other words, a story about the competition between US dollar and silver, in the role of storage of value.

1) Exclusion of dollar excess reserves:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BASE.txt minus http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/EXCRESNS.txt gives amount circulating billion dollars NetBASE
2000-05-17 603.132 minus 2000-06-01 1.115 gives 602.017 <- % reference point
2001-05-16 628.772 minus 2001-06-01 1.249 gives 627.523 +4.2%
2002-05-15 690.279 minus 2002-06-01 1.238 gives 689.041 +14.45%
2003-05-28 744.397 minus 2003-07-01 1.934 gives 742.463 +23.33%
2004-05-26 773.117 minus 2004-06-01 1.931 gives 771.186 +28.1%
2005-05-25 803.166 minus 2005-06-01 1.739 gives 801.427 +33.12%
2006-05-24 840.133 minus 2006-06-01 1.782 gives 838.351 +39.26%
2007-05-23 851.743 minus 2007-06-01 1.753 gives 849.990 +41.19%
2008-05-21 861.296 minus 2008-06-01 2.225 gives 859.071 +42.7% <- crisis start
2009-05-20 1836.298 minus 2009-06-01 749.401 gives 1086.897 +80.54%
2010-05-19 2050.896 minus 2010-06-01 1034.927 gives 1015.969 +68.76%
2011-05-18 2586.440 minus 2011-06-01 1588.726 gives 997.714 +65.73%
2012-05-16 2638.382 minus 2012-06-01 1457.475 gives 1180.907 +96.16%
2013-05-15 3105.514 minus 2013-04-01 1768.834 gives 1336.68 +122%
Conclusion 1: the amount circulating dollars increased 122% relative to year 2000.

Silver Average Price
2000 $5 <- % reference point
2001 $4.4 -12%
2002 $4.6 -8%
2003 $4.9 -2%
2004 $6.7 +34%
2005 $7.3 +46%
2006 $11.5 +130%
2007 $13.4 +168%
2008 $15 +200% <- crisis start
2009 $14.7 +194%
2010 $20.2 +304%
2011 $35.1 +602%
2012 $31.15 +523%
2013 $27.89 +458% (so far)
Conclusion 2: the silver price increased 523% relative to year 2000.
At present day, the average silver price rose 458/122 = 3,75 times the rise of the US dollar Net (minus EXCRESNS) monetary base. But let's stick to last year with complete data: 523/122 = 4,3 times. But judging this price increase can only be done by comparing the amounts dollars that moved into the silver market since.

Monetary competition US dollar - silver
Coins & Medals + Implied Net Investment (seen as silver used as storage of value) gives amount billion put in silver (jewelry excluded since quite stable).
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/2002/05/23/hello-world/
http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
<Investment Moz> multiplied by <year average silver price> gives <amount dollars put in silver> which is <X% of dollar net monetary base>:
2000 29.8 Moz gives $0.149 billion which was 0.02475% of NetBASE <- % reference point
2001 44 Moz gives $0.194 billion which was 0.03091% of NetBASE +25%
2002 31.6 Moz gives $0.145 billion which was 0.02104% of NetBASE -15%
2003 35.7 Moz gives $0.164 billion which was 0.02209% of NetBASE -10.75%
2004 47.8 Moz gives $0.234 billion which was 0.03034% of NetBASE +22.6%
2005 103.1 Moz gives $0.753 billion which was 0.09396% of NetBASE +280%
2006 79.3 Moz gives $0.912 billion which was 0.10879% of NetBASE +339%
2007 39.7 Moz gives $0.532 billion which was 0.06259% of NetBASE +153%
2008 74.6 Moz gives $1.119 billion which was 0.13026% of NetBASE +426% <- crisis start
2009 195.1 Moz gives $2.868 billion which was 0.26387% of NetBASE +966%
2010 257.7 Moz gives $5.206 billion which was 0.51242% of NetBASE +1970%
2011 250.6 Moz gives $8.796 billion which was 0.88162% of NetBASE +3462%
2012 252.7 Moz gives $7.872 billion which was 0.58892% of NetBASE +2279%
Conclusion 3: the amount investment dollars annually moved into the silver market was in its 12 years-peak year 2011 59 times the amount of 2000, while the amount Net Monetary Base dollars multiplied by 2,22 times (the latter confirmed by quite some products inflation figures).
In other words, the silver market has indeed been very small. But that was back in 2000. Since that 0.02475% then it grew to 0.88162% in 2011.
It got 59/2.22 = 26.6 times bigger relative to the Net Monetary Base than in 2000. In 2011, for every 1000 NetBASE dollars, 8.8 dollars (0.88162%) were put into silver.
The silver market had in 2011 a 'size' of 1/113 of the amount dollars circulating as Net Monetary Base.
In 2012 it shrunk back to 1/169.
In 2000 it was only 1/4040.
Final conclusion: the statement that the silver market is very small, appears outdated to me. Since a decade.
We got BIGGER.
But for how long, will depend on the availability of product markets that provide more potential to grow than silver now.
Back in the late eighties, computers and automation brought an immense production improvement, which provided the bigger potentials.
What is lurking out there now?

Footnote: take into account that above sketches a macro-economical picture over the (very) long term. It doesn't say anything about the shorter term. Therefore, it's useless for the buylow/sellhigh/buybackinlow speedgame. But for stacking on the decade and more term, it may be crucial data, IF it contains no capital errors, like mentioned at the start.
 
The Comex futures market net total position dropped from 11926 to 9223 (-13,5 Moz silver). Both were the lowest seen since the 9/11 crisis in 2001.
This is a chart generated by Kitcomm user somemathguy mid 2012:
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=106279
2ufy7o2.jpg

Again take into account, this data element shouldn't be used as single price trend predictor. The net position and price correlation lasted from may 2011 to october 2012, where the proportional part vanished, and since the mid april price drop even the directional part vanished. Nevertheless, it's a major indicator, simply because the net position fluctuations typically each time involve an amount silver being temp bought>sold of a quarter of a worlds year supply, and easily adds/removes $10 of the silver price.
I'm happy to see US Mint ASE sales to have kept up with previous months, but in terms of price influence, it's nothing. 3-4Moz versus the 250Moz of the Comex future agreed (but often then cancelled haha) purchases.
 
In Pirocco's post 55.. The graph for the av. price of silver goes from $5oz in2000 to $27 av in 2013.

That has always been a concern of mine..I think most of us here on SS have missed the boat!

Just imagine if you had put $10k into actual silver in the year 2000...You would have a stack of 2000ozs plus if you continued to grow your stack in 2001,02,03,04 and 05, you may well have added 500ozs a year (2500ozs). Now wouldn't that be a nice stack, 4500ozs..

Now lets look at today! Silver at the moment is around $23Au...If you bought $10 of silver now at spot, you have 435ozs..

Five years from now what will the price of silver be? 500% increase. that would mean silver would be around $165ozs.

The upswing in silver prices in the 2000 to 2005 may never be repeated..$46 oz may well be in range over the next 5 years but that figure will only provide a good little earner and maybe we are dreaming to expect anything else.

Pirocco, Whats your take on ^^^?

If the financial system collapses well it may well be a different ball game. :)

Regards Errol 43
 
Is the bull market over? If not, maybe David Morgan will be right- he says that 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time.
 
errol43 said:
In Pirocco's post 55.. The graph for the av. price of silver goes from $5oz in2000 to $27 av in 2013.

That has always been a concern of mine..I think most of us here on SS have missed the boat!

Just imagine if you had put $10k into actual silver in the year 2000...You would have a stack of 2000ozs plus if you continued to grow your stack in 2001,02,03,04 and 05, you may well have added 500ozs a year (2500ozs). Now wouldn't that be a nice stack, 4500ozs..

Now lets look at today! Silver at the moment is around $23Au...If you bought $10 of silver now at spot, you have 435ozs..

Five years from now what will the price of silver be? 500% increase. that would mean silver would be around $165ozs.

The upswing in silver prices in the 2000 to 2005 may never be repeated..$46 oz may well be in range over the next 5 years but that figure will only provide a good little earner and maybe we are dreaming to expect anything else.

Pirocco, Whats your take on ^^^?

If the financial system collapses well it may well be a different ball game. :)

Regards Errol 43
Click to expand...
You hit here the capital point the post made.
This is, in contrary to a cyclic buyer>seller>buyer, for a stacker how to look at it.
All the silver bought during the period 2000-2013 for 'investment' purposes, is silver that sits around, waiting for its owners, when their time horizon arrives, to again sell.
Some months ago I made a sum of all Mint sales reports, assuming that noone melts 1ouncer bullions like ASE/Maple/etc.
US+Canadian+Austria Mints gave a total of 475 Moz.
I lack figures for others (Mexican for ex) and private Mints, but all together a 600 Moz could be a good estimate.
ETF's also piled up such a 600 Moz as 1000 ouncer bars.
And then we have the bars bought by individuals and not reported somewhere. I have no idea how much this is. The recent $27>$21 price drop didnt show ETF stocks decrease . So apparently, it has been either been new produced silver either the nonreported bar owners that sold some. It's a substantial price move, so it must have been in the range of a couple 100's Moz.
So maybe there is a 1500 Moz, 1,5 times worlds annual supply, accumulated since 2000.
And TheSilverInstitutes data seems to confirm this, if I add all the Moz (see my previous post for them) I get 1441,7 Moz.
That is all silver, that will be sold again some day.
This was the silver side of the story.

Let's now move to the dollar (and euro, similar story) side.
As shown, the amount circulating dollars as the net monetary base, is 2000 +122%
So, with a production amount/product lifetime that is as 'good' as 2000, general prices should have roughly doubled since 2000.
Here in my region, EU, prices seriously increased since Euro currency introduction. Especially in the first years. I remember that common fruits (apples, oranges, ...) doubled in price and bread prices jumped 30% in just that couple years Average house prices almost doubled over the decade.
This makes clear that a part of silvers price move, has nothing to do with 'bull market', I see bull/bear markets as stories superimposed over general price inflation.
Since 2000 was $5 silver, $12 silver would then be a bottom that lasts.
The $13+ part is then the superimposed bull/bear market.
Remember 1980? A big and short silver price peak of $50 followed by 20 years $5.
Enough silver was stockpiled in the late seventies of which sales suppressed any price uptrend for over 20 years long, despite a general price inflation (at least another doubling).
But is it the single or dominant factor?
The massive production improvements (computers/networking/automation/global markets) between 1980 and 2000, were another factor.
The higher interest rates, another factor.
Is the 2008+ crisis also 'overcomeable' this way?
We should see another doubling/tripling of production then. We should see again half the producing population part moving out, towards State or whatever resorting under it.
I think we hit the limits in 2008. The near to zero intrest rates are another indicator for this.
This means that I see it as a rescuing what can be rescued. I could have done 30% better without incalculating tax and/or dealer profit based loss when selling back to dealer. Some out there could have done 100+% better. Alike those that were misleaded enough to 'go all in' near $50.
But there is another error out there: selling low. And that frontrunning club requires that error to be made, or they fail their buy back in lower.
It won't be me. My plan, based on current trends, is to just add to stack at every new bottom price. That's averaging down without risk.
When the next crisis then occurs, the same will happen as in 2008. Only that I learnt since, and will wait till after the frontrunners sold and price only reflects those that stack like me.
And if euro / dollar appears too risky to me (a bank account can go overnight or be limited in withdrawal), and the frontrunners didn't dump yet, I'll buy something else with the new euros / dollars. In the end, I didn't buy the silver for the silver, I only bought it as an inbetween step to what I really wanted, and if other things 'suffer' less frontrunning, I'll pick those.
I see my silver stock as own control and independence on central planning. That's what real speculators do: they plan themselves instead of letting others plan them.
So yes, alot on SS missed the boat, including me. But there is a next boat, and selling at sub $20 may be the ticket to miss it.
 
koolooka said:
So another ~17-20 years to go assuming the economic cycle(s) not accelerating as they have been over the past couple decades? heh.
Unfortunately (and really unfortunately) that I haven't got time to do TA trading like others in order to lower my per oz cost, so I'm with you re: keep stacking whenever the price hit periodic lows.
Click to expand...
Why the 'so'?
I didn't say 'this time' will be a repeat of 1980-2000.
I said, in the part of my post that you deleted, the contrary:
The massive production improvements (computers/networking/automation/global markets) between 1980 and 2000, were another factor.
The higher interest rates, another factor.
Is the 2008+ crisis also 'overcomeable' this way?
We should see another doubling/tripling of production then. We should see again half the producing population part moving out, towards State or whatever resorting under it.
I think we hit the limits in 2008. The near to zero intrest rates are another indicator for this.
This means that I see it as a rescuing what can be rescued. I could have done 30% better ...blabla
Click to expand...
So yes, I think it will accelerate. That's also the underlying process of hyperinflation. Hyperinflation itself isn't the subject. The underlying process is. It doesn't matter whether bank savings are officially lost due to bank failures, or devaluation rounds, or general price increasings, or taxes, or some or all of it together. It's a mechanism that is exponential because major long terms all start to have effects working in the same direction, reinforcing upon every 'cycle'.
As said, I didn't buy silver to drain off others trying the same as me. I bought it to rescue what I can rescue, with a result (good or bad) depending on myself and others trying the same as me (hence I don't like seeing big US Mint sales when the money for nothing club has big / even peak positions). Not depending on the central planning bunch of legal thieves. That's what liberty is.
 
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