heyimderrick
Active Member
Thor122 said:
Could be a bargain indeed. MS68 or below and maybe you just break even. It's all a gamble I guess.
MS What? -- Determining the value of Graded vs. OMP
- Thread starter heyimderrick
- Start date
Could be a bargain indeed. MS68 or below and maybe you just break even. It's all a gamble I guess.
heyimderrick
Active Member
As I said I would in another thread somewhere, I cracked out my ANACS and ICG MS69 DCAM 2004 silver Pandas to submit to NCS for conservation then grading by NGC to see how the grades would compare. The results are in:
ANACS is coming back NCS/NGC MS69
ICG is coming back NCS/NGC MS68
So what I take from this little experiment is, if you can pick up a high-grade ANACS for a bargain (say 10-20% less than OMP), it might be worth sending in to NCS/NGC.
On a side note, both of these coins had some white spots developing, so it will be interesting to see what they look like when they come back.
ANACS is coming back NCS/NGC MS69
ICG is coming back NCS/NGC MS68
So what I take from this little experiment is, if you can pick up a high-grade ANACS for a bargain (say 10-20% less than OMP), it might be worth sending in to NCS/NGC.
On a side note, both of these coins had some white spots developing, so it will be interesting to see what they look like when they come back.
heyimderrick said:
Here are my thoughts:
1, it depends on the coin. Some grade well, some grade poorly. Standards and practices have shifted over time. Here's a rough guide based on NGC population numbers:
80s coins average 67-68
90s coins average 68-69
00s coins average 69.5
But then there outliers. The 1997 silver pandas with that sandy finish do not grade well. The 1993 copper pandas grade terribly (only 1 68!).
2, again, it depends a little. Here are my basic rules for minimum acceptable investment grades:
Mintage < 500 - any grade is good
501 < Mintage < 100,000 (surviving) - MS 69 or better
Mintage > 100,000 - MS 70 only
And then an additional rule is that if there are a lot of 70s available for a particular coin, say 100 or more, then only 70s are acceptable no matter what the mintage is. An example of this rule would be the 2007 25th anniversary set coins.
Basically it comes down to buying the best and rarest you can afford at the time. I have some lower grade stuff (from losing the grading game mostly), but in general I want to sell to those and trade up to better coins.
Oh, for determining the price, the ratios will depend on the relative populations. I know, I know, "it depends" gets old.
Here are some extreme cases:
2001 D 1 oz silver panda MS 70 : MS 69 is about 10 : 1
2009 1 oz silver panda MS 70 : MS 69 is about 1.75 : 1
Most coins are somewhere in around 4 : 1 for MS 70 : MS 69.
67s and 68s will be somewhere around OMP, and MS 69 : MS 68 will usually be around 1.5 : 1 or 2 : 1
Here are some extreme cases:
2001 D 1 oz silver panda MS 70 : MS 69 is about 10 : 1
2009 1 oz silver panda MS 70 : MS 69 is about 1.75 : 1
Most coins are somewhere in around 4 : 1 for MS 70 : MS 69.
67s and 68s will be somewhere around OMP, and MS 69 : MS 68 will usually be around 1.5 : 1 or 2 : 1
heyimderrick
Active Member
I've been watching a lot of auctions for pre-2000 pandas lately (silver and gold), and I must say the MS68s are performing well in my opinion. The prices they are capturing are higher than I expected and are beating out OMP handily more often than not. I haven't done any formal tracking of sales results, just a casual observation, but its somewhat of a comfort since a few of my NCS submissions have come back MS68.
au_ag_miner
Member
Hmm maybe I would see if I want to track pre-2001 MS68 ... a bit too many to track with a full time job ... LOL
Here's some tracking I did that might help on deciding between Graded or OMP:
http://chinesepandacoin.blogspot.com/2011/12/premiums-of-key-date-silver-panda-coins.html
Managed to pick a 1987 5 oz Panda NGC PF68 for year-on-year (December transaction) comparison.
With spot price back at Dec 2010 levels, the same grade coin actually gained 37% from $399 to $547.
On the other hand, a 1989 1oz NGC MS68 is sold for near OMP price. It'd probably take the more significant or scarce pre-2001 coins for MS68 to be valuable. This is in line with what has been discussed many times.
Here's some tracking I did that might help on deciding between Graded or OMP:
http://chinesepandacoin.blogspot.com/2011/12/premiums-of-key-date-silver-panda-coins.html
Managed to pick a 1987 5 oz Panda NGC PF68 for year-on-year (December transaction) comparison.
With spot price back at Dec 2010 levels, the same grade coin actually gained 37% from $399 to $547.
On the other hand, a 1989 1oz NGC MS68 is sold for near OMP price. It'd probably take the more significant or scarce pre-2001 coins for MS68 to be valuable. This is in line with what has been discussed many times.
heyimderrick
Active Member
Interesting development to go along with this old thread.
In the February 2012 Pricepedia, OMP and MS67 are now listed in the same column and receive the same valuation (unless a noted sale was a 68).
If you're familiar with my comments in recent threads about grading valuation, I couldn't agree more with this. I see MS68 coins being a better buy than gambling with capsule or OMP coins, and deserving of a premium for the guarantee of an eye-appealing coin.
It's also nice to see an expert weighing in on the valuation debate. This should help us all better value our OMP, MS67, MS68 and MS69 coins.
In the February 2012 Pricepedia, OMP and MS67 are now listed in the same column and receive the same valuation (unless a noted sale was a 68).
If you're familiar with my comments in recent threads about grading valuation, I couldn't agree more with this. I see MS68 coins being a better buy than gambling with capsule or OMP coins, and deserving of a premium for the guarantee of an eye-appealing coin.
It's also nice to see an expert weighing in on the valuation debate. This should help us all better value our OMP, MS67, MS68 and MS69 coins.
Agreed Derrick.
I am buying 69s while money permits though, would only consider 68 if it's a set I really really want. I still love oMP, I'm a sucker for boxes and certs
.
Also,
Gripes:
- PF68/PF69 x 3 four coin sets... one PF68 arghhhh
- Now my fishball index is messed up, slightly
- 68s selling cheaper than OMP, they are really hated even though bargain prices
I am buying 69s while money permits though, would only consider 68 if it's a set I really really want. I still love oMP, I'm a sucker for boxes and certs
.Also,
Gripes:
- PF68/PF69 x 3 four coin sets... one PF68 arghhhh
- Now my fishball index is messed up, slightly
- 68s selling cheaper than OMP, they are really hated even though bargain prices
heyimderrick
Active Member
fishball said:Agreed Derrick.
I am buying 69s while money permits though, would only consider 68 if it's a set I really really want. I still love oMP, I'm a sucker for boxes and certs
Also,
Gripes:
- PF68/PF69 x 3 four coin sets... one PF68 arghhhh
- Now my fishball index is messed up, slightly
- 68s selling cheaper than OMP, they are really hated even though bargain prices
I too would buy a 69 over a 68 if the funds are available. What this changes for me personally is that I will be less bummed about getting an MS68 back from a submission. I've seen MS68 sell above and below OMP, and I think that will continue for a while depending on the particular coin. But, with this change in the price guide, moving forward maybe MS68 will get some more respect. At least I hope so.
P.S. I'll happily take your 68s if you can't stand them and want to donate them to your old pal in the States
heyimderrick said:
I really like this development, however I am unsure as to its current applicability to the market.
It goes towards setting the bar that MS67 == OMP in value across the entire range of MCC. Considering 1oz bullion coins, I have not seen many examples out in the marketplace that this is the case. It has been my general experience that 68 graded coins are worth about the same or slightly less than OMP. This is not the case with the exceptionally rare or exotic coins and medals, where people are often happy to pay for the certainty of a 67, rather than risk an even lower grade.
To share my personal view, while I have a large amount of both OMP and graded pandas, I do tend to head towards 69 and 70 grade coins, either purchased, or graded from my own collection, these are definitely the most liquid and offer the best short-medium term opportunities for gain.
HOWEVER.
I do not think an awesome eye appeal 68 and any 70 will be valued differently in 30 years. The reason I am so keen to have my silver coins graded, is the conservation process, having containment removed from the coin and sealed in an airtight cointainer goes a long way to ensuring it stands the test of time. I feel a lot of people will agree with me when I say a 68 conserved coin, will likely look far better to the eye than a 70 unconserved coin in 30 years time.
heyimderrick
Active Member
Zinger said:
Mostly agree. MCC market is still maturing and I think we've seen such big variations in prices between OMP and grades because there wasn't any type of base established by a credible source with the historical sales figures to back it up. Kind of why I originally started this thread. Now we have that, and this should set a nice base to work from going forward considering his credibility and connections with major players in the MCC market.
Speaking of 30 years, a MS70 1982 Gold Panda would smack the shit out of a MS68 1982 Gold Panda in terms of pricing
Not that I have either but I still think 70s will be well loved and there's always the price guarantee if the coin fails inside the holder.
Yes/no?
As for conservation yeah pretty much all the new coins I buy are NCS'd, although some don't start with the number '3' yet I know the seller isn't lying since I saw the receipt... but that's another topic.
fishball said:
Speaking of 30 years, a MS70 1982 Gold Panda would smack the shit out of a MS68 1982 Gold Panda in terms of pricing
Not that I have either but I still think 70s will be well loved and there's always the price guarantee if the coin fails inside the holder.
Yes/no?
I did mention silver coins specifically, however it would probably still be true for similarly dated silver.
It is important to remember that NGC or PCGS may not always be in vogue, and they may not always be respected, they even might cease to exist. All it could take is one scandal of a senior grader submitting coins through a shill, and manipulating internal policies to give his coins 70 grades for a companies reputation to be ruined.
Market prices for graded coins are based on the markets respect for the integrity of the grading organisations (which currently, is very high). It would be foolish to expect beyond any doubt this will be the case in a few decades.
heyimderrick
Active Member
Zinger said:
This is spot-on, and a very real possibility. It's happened in the comic book industry many times (another one of my hobbies), and has happened in the coin world as well, past SGS actions unfortunately come to mind. In 30 years time who knows what could happen. Unfortunately if a scandal did occur, we'd all be screwed. Lol.