MS What? -- Determining the value of Graded vs. OMP

[heyimderrick]

So, I know we've successfully -- and thoroughly -- determined that Pandas are most desired either in OMP or NCS/NGC-graded, followed by PCGS-graded. We've also concluded that MS70 is primarily for serious collectors while MS69 is primarily for investors.

So I want to take another approach to the topic (apologies if these have already been brought up).


1. What do you think the average OMP Panda grades at?

In most cases, I think it is safe to say that most people cherry-pick their perceived "winners" to send in for grading/conservation, hoping to get a 69 or 70. While the coins that may come back 67 or 68 are simply left in the OMP unless there are fears of PVC damage developing. So let's say, hypothetically, that the average OMP coin grades at MS67. Would you therefore consider the Pricepedia's OMP value equal to a NGC MS67? More? Less?


2. For investments, what is the lowest grade you would be willing to buy, and similar to the scenario above, how would you determine the price?

I suppose the Panda market may be too young still, but it would be nice if a clearer ratio for determining the value would reveal itself.

For example:

Loose in capsule = 95% OMP
MS67 = OMP
MS68 = OMP x 1.25
MS69 = OMP x 2
MS70 = OMP x 4


For reference, grade descriptions per PCGS. NGC and PCGS use a 70-point Sheldon scale.

MS/PR-67 Virtually as struck with minor imperfections, very well struck.
MS/PR-68 Virtually as struck with slight imperfections, slightest weakness of strike allowed. Eye appeal must be very good.
MS/PR-69 Virtually as struck with minuscule imperfections, near full strike necessary.
MS/PR-70 As struck, with full strike.


Thoughts?

 

[25Grizzlies]

Hmmmm...

 

[25Grizzlies]

Hi Derrick, Yes I agree that OMP for me is about the price of a MS67. I'm hoping that it doesn't grade 67 though, unless it is a rare coin like some of the proofs then it's OK to grade at 67. But if it does grade 67 and it's rare, you've probably had to over pay to secure the coin, expect to wait awhile before any returns are seen. That's the thing with grading, do I grade my expensive coins and reveal what they really are or wait til the market goes up then sell in OMP? I am so undecided on this. :/

I like your scale too, seems likely pricing based on what I've seen. Thanks for your thread!

 

[PeeZapp]

I'm only fairly new to this but from what I can tell there is a massive difference between PCGS & NGC

NGC MS69 = OMP X 2
PCGS MS 69 = OMP X 1.25 maybe
(as I said I'm new to this so would like to hear other more intelligent people's opinion but that's how I've seen the panda market)

 

[fishball]

I'm only fairly new to this but from what I can tell there is a massive difference between PCGS & NGC

NGC MS69 = OMP X 2
PCGS MS 69 = OMP X 1.25 maybe
(as I said I'm new to this so would like to hear other more intelligent people's opinion but that's how I've seen the panda market)

Not always the case for pricing, for example an "OMP" 2009 1oz Silver Panda will be around $90-100 whereas I recently got a NGC MS69 for around $120.

NGC is preferred to PCGS especially for silver pandas due to NCS so there's a price disparity there for sure, how much it depends on the buyer and the seller.

There isn't really a simple formula but "OMP" prices are usually assumed to be around MS67-68 price. 69 and 70 are more expensive, sometimes the 70 is 3-4x the price of the 69.

 

[heyimderrick]

I'm only fairly new to this but from what I can tell there is a massive difference between PCGS & NGC

NGC MS69 = OMP X 2
PCGS MS 69 = OMP X 1.25 maybe
(as I said I'm new to this so would like to hear other more intelligent people's opinion but that's how I've seen the panda market)

Not always the case for pricing, for example an "OMP" 2009 1oz Silver Panda will be around $90-100 whereas I recently got a NGC MS69 for around $120.

NGC is preferred to PCGS especially for silver pandas due to NCS so there's a price disparity there for sure, how much it depends on the buyer and the seller.

There isn't really a simple formula but "OMP" prices are usually assumed to be around MS67-68 price. 69 and 70 are more expensive, sometimes the 70 is 3-4x the price of the 69.

PCGS vs. NGC is almost a completely separate debate. Prices seem heavily dependent on the market the coin is being sold in: US vs Int'l. As of late I've seen PCGS outperform NGC on the same coin and grade on US eBay, but I don't want to venture down that road right now

But reverting back to generality, assuming OMP = MS67-68 is helpful in trying to establish fair value. Obviously getting into 69-70 prices will fluctuate more, especially on rare items, but still, some type of gauge would be great. Especially if one had the same coin in OMP, 67, 68, 69 and was trying to price them for resale (non-auction).

 

[Thor122]

heyimderrick good post and data.
Im a beginner (im collecting pandas only for a few months)
And i only Begin with ngc 69/70 for comeaux data and explanations.
I think i only buy ngc 69 or 70 (begining with 3)
But only if the Price is near 1.5 omp or less
If not i buy omp or capsules (dont buy usa capsules only ngc or omp because is possible to resell the coin because the grade is poor)
Im stacking a lot o silver coins to grade in ngc when i travel to usa.
Comeaux you know the ETA time when you send a coin and you recibe it? Ncs/ngc combined?

 

[comeaux]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the other members ... graded prices relative to OMP really depends on exactly what coin is being referenced as it can vary greatly between coins. The rarity of the coin will have a lot of influence of price verses grade ...

If I were to take 1 oz silver pandas from 2003 to 2009 I would basically say the average would be something like this ...

Loose in capsule = OMP less 20%
MS67 = OMP less 10% to 20%
MS68 = OMP
MS69 = OMP x 1.25 to 1.5
MS70 = OMP x 2 to 3

Of course this is just an average as on occasional ebay deals there may be anomalous/inconsistent prices but I can tell you that I would pay no more than these prices.

Average grades? ... Again that depends on the coin and year minted

I'll use the 2009 1 oz silver BU Chinese Panda (mintage 600,000) for example:

NGC total graded = 2,998
NGC total MS 70 = 654 (22%)
NGC total MS 69 = 1,994 (66%)
NGC Percentage of 69/70 (88%)

PCGS total graded = 1,167
PCGS total MS 70 = 222 (19%)
PCGS total MS 69 = 860 (74%)
PCGS Percentage of 69/70 = 1,082 (93%)

I ran this comparison above on a variety of Chinese Panda coins and had basically the same percentages of average grades.

NGC graded over 2.5 times as many coins of just this one variety so clearly more experience seeing Chinese coins.

There are other Chinese Modern Coins that PCGS has never even graded

 

[heyimderrick]

...you know the ETA time when you send a coin and you recibe it? Ncs/ngc combined?

NGC turnaround time is estimated at about 12 business days right now, plus shipping to and from.

NCS turnaround time is not estimated; they process orders as they are received. Right now based on forum posts on the Collector's Society site, it seems that the average turnaround time is about 1 month.

 

[heyimderrick]

I'm pretty much in agreement with the other members ... graded prices relative to OMP really depends on exactly what coin is being referenced as it can vary greatly between coins. The rarity of the coin will have a lot of influence of price verses grade ...

If I were to take 1 oz silver pandas from 2003 to 2009 I would basically say the average would be something like this ...

Loose in capsule = OMP less 20%
MS67 = OMP less 10% to 20%
MS68 = OMP
MS69 = OMP x 1.25 to 1.5
MS70 = OMP x 2 to 3

Of course this is just an average as on occasional ebay deals there may be anomalous/inconsistent prices but I can tell you that I would pay no more than these prices.

Average grades? ... Again that depends on the coin and year minted

I'll use the 2009 1 oz silver BU Chinese Panda (mintage 600,000) for example:

NGC total graded = 2,998
NGC total MS 70 = 654 (22%)
NGC total MS 69 = 1,994 (66%)
NGC Percentage of 69/70 (88%)

PCGS total graded = 1,167
PCGS total MS 70 = 222 (19%)
PCGS total MS 69 = 860 (74%)
PCGS Percentage of 69/70 = 1,082 (93%)

I ran this comparison above on a variety of Chinese Panda coins and had basically the same percentages of average grades.

NGC graded over 2.5 times as many coins of just this one variety so clearly more experience seeing Chinese coins.

There are other Chinese Modern Coins that PCGS has never even graded

So it seems the consensus so far is that OMP and MS68 are about equal in fair value.

Now the question is, are buyers going to go after MS68s or treat them the same as OMPs?


For me, so far, I've only purchased one MS68 so far, and that was because it was about the same cost for me to get a capsule-only version and send it in for grading myself. In that situation, I felt more comfortable knowing what I was getting from the start.


Cx, I like the stats you pulled. But don't you think using the census numbers for estimating what the avg. condition of a BU coin can be misleading? The coins sent in for grading are going to be the ones people think will grade high to begin with. Although it does clearly show how tough the 70s are to get.

 

[Thor122]

...you know the ETA time when you send a coin and you recibe it? Ncs/ngc combined?

NGC turnaround time is estimated at about 12 business days right now, plus shipping to and from.

NCS turnaround time is not estimated; they process orders as they are received. Right now based on forum posts on the Collector's Society site, it seems that the average turnaround time is about 1 month.

I think i need to ship before i travel or going to a coin show with ngc presence and grading on site

 

[heyimderrick]

...you know the ETA time when you send a coin and you recibe it? Ncs/ngc combined?

NGC turnaround time is estimated at about 12 business days right now, plus shipping to and from.

NCS turnaround time is not estimated; they process orders as they are received. Right now based on forum posts on the Collector's Society site, it seems that the average turnaround time is about 1 month.

I think i need to ship before i travel or going to a coin show with ngc presence and grading on site

Probably a good idea. Although if the show is your plan, make sure that they will grade world coins on-site. Most of the shows I have been to they will only grade US coins on-site.

 

[comeaux]

Cx, I like the stats you pulled. But don't you think using the census numbers for estimating what the avg. condition of a BU coin can be misleading? The coins sent in for grading are going to be the ones people think will grade high to begin with. Although it does clearly show how tough the 70s are to get.

Thanks derrick ...

No not misleading at all I was answering a question in your initial post before you edited it about what percentage of OMP would come back 68, 69 70, etc I had began answering your post much earlier but got side tracked and when I posted it, parts of your original post were gone.

Besides everyone will do things different but I submit EVERYTHING in OMP to get graded. I do not select or "cherry pick" and do not know many who do. If I submit say ten 2003 pandas, I do put the best coins that I think are a higher grade in numerical order on the submission form so that I can test my skills at grading.

I'm not saying I grade every coin that is OMP because special panda sets that are in boxes with COA's or commemoratives I will not grade. All other coins in OMP will get submitted.

It's cheap for the service I think.

 

[nicwinner]

wht is OMP? original manufacture price?

 

[Lightsview]

wht is OMP? original manufacture price?

Original Mint Packaging.

 

[wyldkatt]

You folks down under seem very generous.

I remember reading somewhere quite a few years ago,
that certain years, the OMP coins were gauged as MS64-MS66.

Not sure which years, but the capsules were a hair big,
and caused the bears to receive bumps, and wear marks.

Maybe Peter can chime in when he comes by.
I'm sure he could enlighten us on this OMP grades thingy.

Whaddayasay Peter?




~wyldkatt~

 

[fishball]

You folks down under seem very generous.

Read this post on CCF, the auction results from the recent ChengXuan 2011 Auction...

1979 Year of the Child results:
NGC PF68 unsold
NGC PF69 unsold
Raw $2,898 (89% of PF69 cameo)
NGC PF69 cameo $3,260
NGC PF69 ultra cameo $3,260
NGC PF70 ultra cameo $10,325

So no, we aren't really generous, the Chinese are too

Perhaps AEL should keep his coin in raw condition

 

[25Grizzlies]

You folks down under seem very generous.

Read this post on CCF, the auction results from the recent ChengXuan 2011 Auction...

1979 Year of the Child results:
NGC PF68 unsold
NGC PF69 unsold
Raw $2,898 (89% of PF69 cameo)
NGC PF69 cameo $3,260
NGC PF69 ultra cameo $3,260
NGC PF70 ultra cameo $10,325

So no, we aren't really generous, the Chinese are too

Perhaps AEL should keep his coin in raw condition

Yep agreed fish, perhaps it's wise to keep some highly sought after coins ungraded. Let the market decide their worth, regardless of grade... which, to be fair, is subjective

 

[Thor122]

Silver coin post

Thanks for the data.
One and dumb question.
How much aprox is the ncs/ngc for each coin?
20 uss/30 uss/
Exclude shipping costs.
Include shipping cost domestic only

All depends on the services you want and coin type... About $18.50 for NGC only with the stratch-resistant holder. About $22.50 for NCS then NGC-graded.

NGC rates: http://www.ngccoin.com/services/services.asp

NCS rates: http://www.ncscoin.com/conservation/services_and_fees.asp

If you take a coin for 30/40 above raw valu and is a ms69 ngc is a bargain

 

[comeaux]

If you take a coin for 30/40 above raw valu and is a ms69 ngc is a bargain