Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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They also think that Microstrategy will be the largest company in the world. Let that sink in. A company that does not produce anything will somehow be the largest company in the world. No offence @mmm....shiney! but these two are selling a dream, likely for YouTube views or personal clout.
 
No offence taken. I'm genuinely excited by the interest shown in BTC as a Treasury and can see many large-caps adopting it down the road. But I understand that others don't share that enthusiasm for a variety of reasons.

Now to the video. Don't get too hung up on price predictions, it's like reading tea leaves and is more of a distraction than anything else. The boys briefly chat about the effects that price predictions can have on some listeners and it seems that they're pretty much spot on about it. :p

A couple of things though...

BTC as an asset functions differently to BTC as a medium of exchange. Yes it can be cumbersome, but it's still a far quicker process than the sale of RE which can take months or even shares which takes days. Add that it's trustless and can be coded and it's like no other asset. As I said elsewhere, it's evolved from being a micro-payment protocol so any concerns around lags in the exchange process are largely unimportant as instant transfers are not needed if BTC is to become a form of collateral.

Secondly, BTC has stood rigorously through some of the challenges over the past decade. I think it's the 7th largest asset by MC and can only have reached that position because investors have enough faith in it to assign value to it.

Thirdly MSTR does produce something. A return for investors. It's not a finance company but it leverages its largest asset and provides investment products for those chasing volatility, those unable to buy crypto or spot ETFs and income for shareholders.
 
Crypto Fear and Greed index in the green "greed" zone, down from "extreme greed" a month ago. It sits mostly in the green zone and has been there since the last correction in August/September this year which saw the price of BTC drop from about 70K in March to 50K.

It's a short term indicator which some suggest points to a correction, therefore if there is a pullback it should be brief, the magnitude of it remains to be seen (if it happens at all).

fear-and-greed-index.png
 
The IRS regulations are supposed to take effect in 2027. I expect they will either be rolled back by a Trump administration or struck down by a court before then.
 
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Finished the week green which is the first time since the ATH back in early December. Tested and bounced off that low 90K support which is what I was hoping for, but there's a world of resistance ahead of it if it is to break through to new ATHs.

In other news BTC hash rate topped 1000 EH/s for the first time, the higher the hash rate the more secure the system meaning it's more resistant to attacks. All in all quite pleasing.

BTCUSD_2025-01-04_08-31-11.png
 
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Breaking 92k would accelerate the sell off IMO. Marking doomsday for crypto bros. Reason I say this is that it would be the first successful distribution cycle after returning into premium POI’s.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
I'm curious what your opinion on BTC itself is as an asset class.
Click to expand...

I don't hate crypto, I find some of the coins coming out of it interesting. I do think Bitcoin is undeserving of being the #1 crypto, it's slow, not efficient, not scalable and very energy demanding for something that isn't yet used as a functional currency in day-to-day life.

I wouldn't personally consider BTC an investment either, I think of it as a traders tool on risk sentiment and just that really, a traders tool. The swings are large and nice, but wouldn't be something I would comfortably invest in, I'd end up biting my nails every time the thing drops 4% in a night lol :eek:.
 
IPDA said:
I do think Bitcoin is undeserving of being the #1 crypto
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Okay the picture is clearer, you're anti-BTC.

It's the number 1 for a host of reasons, including:

1. It's a monetary good.
2. It's the most decentralised and secure network.
3. It doesn't seek to solve problems that other cryptocurrencies are designed to.
4. It is the most widely adopted digital asset for investment allocation.
5. It's scarce.
6. It is the most liquid.
7. It was the first successful ecosystem designed to support the exchange of value at a peer-peer level without the need for a centralised authority to approve the transaction.

Your criticisms of it being slow or not efficient are one of the reasons why it is the most secure system. In cryptography security and speed are trade offs. Want a fast transaction speed? Then you sacrifice security. Want a secure system? Then you sacrifice speed. Want to reduce energy consumption? Then you sacrifice security and/or speed.

All value comes at the cost of great expense on our energy systems. There is a post floating around on this forum somewhere exploring the myth that BTC is an energy guzzler, it may be, but when compared to the output in value of say gold or the legacy financial system it's far more energy efficient when comparing value produced/unit of energy required.

I suggest your negativity toward BTC is driving your thesis. This is not new. The angst over BTC has been going on for 15 years on this forum and basically everywhere else and all of those naysayers of the past have been proven wrong. Save a decade of your life and jetison the FUD.
 
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Onto the price, BTC is sitting on the top of the support zone. A fall below the 90K zone could see it drop back to 70K ie "the scary bit". Alternatively we'll see consolidation for a while until some news event propels it higher (but it could be lower than my previous price range above), or it could bounce through the world of resistance above it to fresh highs.

I think the most likely outcome is for a period of consolidation, maybe in a quite broad range eg 90K - 105K.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Okay the picture is clearer, you're anti-BTC.

It's the number 1 for a host of reasons, including:

1. It's a monetary good.
2. It's the most decentralised and secure network.
3. It doesn't seek to solve problems that other cryptocurrencies are designed to.
4. It is the most widely adopted digital asset for investment allocation.
5. It's scarce.
6. It is the most liquid.
7. It was the first successful ecosystem designed to support the exchange of value at a peer-peer level without the need for a centralised authority to approve the transaction.

Your criticisms of it being slow or not efficient are one of the reasons why it is the most secure system. In cryptography security and speed are trade offs. Want a fast transaction speed? Then you sacrifice security. Want a secure system? Then you sacrifice speed. Want to reduce energy consumption? Then you sacrifice security and/or speed.

All value comes at the cost of great expense on our energy systems. There is a post floating around on this forum somewhere exploring the myth that BTC is an energy guzzler, it may be, but when compared to the output in value of say gold or the legacy financial system it's far more energy efficient when comparing value produced/unit of energy required.

I suggest your negativity toward BTC is driving your thesis. This is not new. The angst over BTC has been going on for 15 years on this forum and basically everywhere else and all of those naysayers of the past have been proven wrong. Save a decade of your life and jetison the FUD.
Click to expand...

You're mistaking my general opinion of Bitcoin with my model (i.e., bias) on the asset class. My general opinion on the asset has no bearing on how I involve myself in trading the asset. I use my model and I stick to my model, if all things indicated a buy on Bitcoin, I would hold paper longs on it - simple.

You're never going to convince me of your own view of Bitcoin, and that's fine! We don't need all to be Bitcoin bulls, I appreciate your concerns but my oil, silver & gold positions are doing fine, and I'd rather not get involved in holding Bitcoin as an investment.

I was in Europe the last time Bitcoin was bottoming, my model told me this. I did have a position built on paper, but my risk was too slim and wasn't as thought after as I was overseas having a good time lol, but the point being was that my model correctly determined the bias moving forward. I didn't profit from the move, but it taught me a lot about fine tuning my model back then. I'll be the first to tell you when I think Bitcoin is a good buy @mmm....shiney!, right now I believe it's too expensive and due for a sharp correction.
 
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