Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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Just a "feeling", scoping the "vibe", nothing scientific at all so definitely don't follow me. I think crypto will get a extra boost with a Trump win, then after clearing ath, and enjoying the Christmas period, people will sober up and start taking profits leading to a dip. Don't have a "sense" of how big or how sustained, yet.
 
If Trump shuts down the Gensler/SEC and Warren wing's war on crypto, there is going to be a lot of money flowing into crypto in the USA. I think the alt coin markets would be the largest beneficiary and it's going to be a really wild ride as retail learns some hard lessons that tokenomics and decentralization really matters when evaluating an alt coin project.
 
A "fakeout" on that "descending broadening wedge" after all?

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My position has been that the election is just noise, there's bigger events at play across most asset classes than who gets inaugurated in January, because after all there's very little differentiating the two candidates when it comes to economic outcomes (GDP growth). Let's see how the price action turns out over the next 2 - 3 months.

Edit to add: look at the gold market by way of an example, goldbugs see a positive 2025 ahead in regards to capital appreciation, regardless of the result.
 
Woke up, checked to see how cryptos are doing. Everything is green. Everything. The prospect of America's war on crypto ending with Trump's election is releasing investment demand that has been previously wary of the sector. I really think the market cap for Bitcoin (currently 1.5 trillion USD) might end up rivalling gold (around 13 trillion USD last I looked) by the end of this "bull run".
 
 
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dozerz said:
i think youre underestimating the trump factor, deregulation is on for all tech not just crypto.
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I haven't read anything about his plans for deregulation in the tech sector so I can't form an opinion of that. And I'll wait until I see proof of his policies in action.

I was bullish BTC long term regardless of who won the election.
 
Was listening to a podcast with Elon Musk explaining in very simple terms what both him and Vivek will be doing within the Trump Administration.
Can't remember whose Podcast it was. This is my take on it. He started of by asking if the interviewer had ever read "Gulliver's Travels". Elon then proceeded. Imagine
Gulliver as the US Economy. It is a giant in the world. The little people, (Beaucracy) want to tie down Gulliver. They embark on implimenting Rules upon Rules
and Regulations. These are the strings to hold down Gulliver. The more Gulliver moves and breaks these strings, the more Beaucracy creates new rules and regulations (Strings)
to prevent the Economy freedom to operate. Eventually, Beaucracy is so bloated from creating new departments to oversee their existing rules, poor Gulliver is left unable to move.
Elon and Vivek's goal is to cut loose those strings. That will be a mamoth task. Elon was then asked, how much saving would this amount to for the US economy? Elon replied.
About 2 or 3 Trillion. I think most people can relate to this. Before Human Resource Departments were invented back in the very early 90's, I worked in the Financial Industry as a Quality Assurance Officer.
My role was to write and oversee policies implimented within the Financial Framework. Never could I have imagined that Human Resources would become the bloated elephant that it is today within every organisation and continues
to grow, sucking the lifeblood out of innovation and technology through over regulation, especially affecting small businesses.
 
A Polish Presidential candidate has jumped on the "BTC strategic reserve" bandwagon:

Sławomir Mentzen, a Polish politician and chair of the New Hope Party, has recently announced a campaign promise to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve for Poland.
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https://www.tradingview.com/news/ne...th-bitcoin-reserve-presidential-hopeful-says/

He also happens to own 33.7 BTC apparently. :rolleyes:

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markcoinoz said:
Never could I have imagined that Human Resources would become the bloated elephant that it is today within every organisation and continues
to grow, sucking the lifeblood out of innovation and technology through over regulation, especially affecting small businesses.
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The greatest burden on our small business is not HR (we've never owned a business large enough to have an HR department) nor government spending, but compliance costs. The various mandated fees and charges associated with licensing requirements, audits, worker's compensation, tax returns, health inspections, business insurance etc etc which results in us being forced to pay our own way in order to jump through the various hoops that all levels of government enact into "law". Governments are like the robber barons of the old Rhine, they set up road blocks and then force us to pay to pass them.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
The greatest burden on our small business is not HR (we've never owned a business large enough to have an HR department) nor government spending, but compliance costs. The various mandated fees and charges associated with licensing requirements, audits, worker's compensation, tax returns, health inspections, business insurance etc etc which results in us being forced to pay our own way in order to jump through the various hoops that all levels of government enact into "law". Governments are like the robber barons of the old Rhine, they set up road blocks and then force us to pay to pass them.
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With all due respect Shiney, how HR came about in the early 90's started of with an over reach by Insurance companies increasing their premiums for public liability insurance. They virtually doubled it overnight bringing in Policy Reforms into law through regulations and over reach by government bodies and industries. Part of that reform included licensing, workers comp and just about every other roadblock imaginable. That was the beginning of Human Resources which grew to become the body to impliment policies and procedures. It was also why Unions had a difficult time throughout that period.
Unfortunately, I was one of the cogs in the system at the time.

No matter what you think about Elon Musk, he has the knowledge and know how to help drain the swamp and there are alot of swamp dwellers.
There are alot of very smart people backing Trump and I for one hope that he can succeed.
IMO, Australia is imaging the swamp dweller mentality and currently going down the wrong path.
Look at Europe, the UK and Canada.
More swamp dwellers.
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
I think Vivek and Elon can do it but the mathematics behind it are interesting
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There is absolutely no chance they can cut $2 - $3 trillion.

As "The Last Bear" pointed out, government inefficiencies do exist, but if anyone thinks that trimming the fat "on the margin" will change the course of a nation's public policy journey then they're kidding themselves. The journey is not really fiscal it's value based and politics is all about values where fiscal policy is just the tool.

The last Bear Standing said:
Simply put, the government can’t afford to pay over 5% on its debt without blowing out the deficit far beyond the already dour long-term projections of the CBO.
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It can afford to do that, whether the people in the US are willing to pay the price either way is the issue. For generally every $ cut in government spending means the private sector has to find another $ from its savings.
 
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I've never found an answer as to why increasing levels of sovereign debt is a bad thing, I read lots of opinions stating it's bad but they tend to be based on faulty premises.

I won't stand in opposition to genuine attempts to improve government efficiency, but reducing debt for reducing debt's sake simply strikes me as a political game to win votes.
 
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Back on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) briefly, and Paul Sankey points out that the Department will have 2 heads - which he considers rather amusing in that a gov't department charged with reducing costs will have two people in charge. To quote: "Not a good start." LOL :D:D:D
 
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