Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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IPDA said:
Depends on the indicators you use, all the ones I use would suggest it’s a top.
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The indicators outlined above which suggests it's not topped.

IPDA said:
All I try to do is see where large speculators are positioned and what real order flow is suggesting.
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Large speculators have been adding to their position.

Can you post data that shows the real order flow? And can you please define that for me as I don't understand it?
 
mmm....shiney! said:
The indicators outlined above which suggests it's not topped.



Large speculators have been adding to their position.

Can you post data that shows the real order flow? And can you please define that for me as I don't understand it?
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Sure! I’ll post some things maybe tomorrow, out shopping with the girlfriend :(:confused:
 
Some trivia. There are around 1.3B BTC addresses, just under 54 million of those have non-zero balances and of those only 1 million have more than 1BTC stored, or about 1.85% of wallets with non-zero balances.
 
Bob Loukas mentioned he is hoping to put out a new video next week.

So we are already just past the half way mark of the cycle heading up.
That still leaves us at least 12 - 16 mths before it Tops out.https://x.com/BobLoukas

Bob Loukas posted this on "X".

@BobLoukas
The #bitcoin 4 Year Cycle is on Month 19. Prior Cycles topped out at 35 months, so past the midpoint of rising portion. Really can’t express enough just how bullish this setup is here, with reaccumulation occurring, building foundation from where the next major expansion begins.


10:44 PM · Jun 4, 2024
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7 weeks on from initially posting this chart and the price is poking nicely along a possible price scenario in pale blue which is just the current bull run beginning in Dec 2022 copied and pasted onto the end of the price chart at the time (April 17 2023).

BTCUSD_2024-06-05_12-48-11.png

Edit to add: with the 12 - 16 month duration until it tops out as @markcoinoz posted above fitting nicely in to that chart.
 
The bottom low which was 1st Nov 22 was the start of the New 4 Year Cycle.
That is where Bob got his 19 Months into the cycle from.

The real fun starts very soon.

Below is a Monthly Chart

upload_2024-6-5_13-11-30.png
 
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Companies outside of the crypto/tech sphere are purchasing BTC for their treasuries:

Medical Device Maker Semler Scientific Buys $17 Million More Bitcoin and Is Raising Money to Purchase More

Publicly traded Semler Scientific (SMLR), a healthcare business that broadened its corporate strategy to also include buying bitcoin {{BTC}}, said it's buying $17 million more of the digital currency and preparing to raise $150 million so it can purchase even more.

"Semler remains focused on our two strategies of expanding our healthcare business and acquiring and holding bitcoin," said Doug Murphy-Chutorian, MD, Semler Scientific's chief executive officer, in a release. "The company now holds 828 bitcoins, underscoring our view that bitcoin is a compelling investment and can serve as a reliable store of value. We will continue to pursue our strategy of purchasing bitcoins with cash."
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https://www.tradingview.com/news/co...itcoin-and-is-raising-money-to-purchase-more/
 
All crypto bros need to pay attention to Sunday price, this is arguably the most important day of the week for Bitcoin. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday can tell you A LOT about future direction...
 
Silver looks a little too low for me, I'd like to see it come back to around $30 before heading back lower.
 
Going on previous cycles.
20th July - 3 Months after the halving, the Mothership BTC should have enough momentum to start pushing up.

Still waiting for an update from Bob Loukas.
 
Binance CEO Richard Teng thinks the price will be much higher than his initial guess of $80K:

“So my base prediction [at the] end of 2023 was $80,000 [for Bitcoin at the end of 2024]… But what I didn’t predict was the strong robust inflows from the institutions after the launch of [the Bitcoin] ETF. I didn’t expect the ETF to be approved so quickly, so early on in the year. My prediction for ETF approval was possibly towards the end of 2024 even 2025. I have changed my [Bitcoin] prediction because of that. My price for end of this year is much higher than $80,000. I’m not going to give you the price, but it’s much higher than my base price from the end of last year, and I think next year will be a much better year compared to this year. That’s my view.“
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https://www.tradingview.com/news/cr...er-than-80-000-says-binance-ceo-richard-teng/

I'm not as optimistic as him, I've still got around $80K by the end of the year.
 
Okay, Just finished watching Bob Loukas on the 4 Year cycle.
Bob differs a little bit to me.

I made the argument that going on
history that the 20th July after the halving 3 months we should start
moving upwards.
However, Bob makes the argument that given the Spot ETF situation and
also our stellar run we have had this year, there is less likelihood of a blow off top and more
likely of a longer accumulation period before a big run up move.

This does make sense and also I would be expecting far more negativity in the market as a narrative going on
previous cycles than what we currently have. The Fear & Greed Index is 64%. That is still way to high at the moment and
I just haven't seen the desperation that one would expect.

This could be the reason why Bob Loukas still thinks we have a few
more months to go, including a possible 30% sell off.
 
There was a thread on twitter pointing out the fact that there has been an explosion of cryptocurrency offerings, particularly memes on SOL, that are adding to the supply side pressure and diluting the effects of halving.
 
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