Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  • Total voters
    146
SEC and securities:


Guy's criteria for projects at high risk:

1. US based
2. having conducted an ICO, especially where the team retained a large proportion of tokens
3. incomplete projects/platforms
4. statements from teams that suggest the tokens could appreciate in value at some time in the future
5. the presence of a centralised entity in the project's development/management and there should be no mention of them in the white paper
6. the issuance of tokens as part of liquidity mining programs

BTC of course is the only major token that doesn't meet any of the above criteria.
 
When the Oscillator goes above 75, it then becomes Alt Season.
When it goes below 25, it becomes BTC Season, meaning BTC outperforms every other Alt coin.

As an example of just how volatile Alt Season can be, when I called it Alt season in my post yesterday, the "Alt Season Index was 96.
Today it is down to 88.

Here is a snap.
upload_2022-8-11_12-51-45.png


Here is a link to some Alt Season Charts on Trading View.
https://www.tradingview.com/scripts/altseason/

Alt Season is a time in the market where Alt Coins (Everything apart from BTC) outperforms BTC.
This is where crazy fortunes can be made or lost.

Throughout the 4 year cycle there are certain times when Alt Coin season comes into play.
It can range from just a few weeks to several months.
Not all Alt Coins are equal.
Many Pump and then crash and Burn.
Outside of “alt season” most alts can lose amazing amounts of value (either because Bitcoin goes up or because everything is in a bear cycle).
So while going “long” in alts can make sense, you typically want to avoid going all-in at the height of alt season and holding.
1,000% gains are real, but so are 90% losses.
The alt market is not for the faint of heart.
 
Most suicides come after alt season. Especially those who recently went bust and think they're back in the game. Ruthless
 
When I exited Luna at just the right time and managed to get my son out of them as well, it was a real wake up call for me not to trust
these type of "Too good to be true" situations. I am not saying that everything is a scam. However, unless you are prepared to take a deep dive
understanding Tokenomics and the Mechanics of the project, you are better off keeping a safe distance.

Preservation of capital is my number one priority.
The Alt coin season can carry on without me.
Keeps my ticker in tack.
 
heartastack said:
Most suicides come after alt season. Especially those who recently went bust and think they're back in the game. Ruthless
Click to expand...

So, you think the alts are still going down?

I still think it's a possibility that the market is not back. But I start to believe it less and less that BTC will reach down to 10-11 k. That would be a bargain. If it doesn't go that low this/next year, then it might never go that low ever again.

Regretting what you never tried terribly worse than what the mistakes you made.
 
TreasureHunter said:
So, you think the alts are still going down?

I still think it's a possibility that the market is not back. But I start to believe it less and less that BTC will reach down to 10-11 k. That would be a bargain. If it doesn't go that low this/next year, then it might never go that low ever again.

Regretting what you never tried terribly worse than what the mistakes you made.
Click to expand...

Like a broken record it depends on the time horizon. Now is a good (great) time for traders but too volatile for me to want to invest I'd rather wait for some longer sideways trends.
 
heartastack said:
Like a broken record it depends on the time horizon. Now is a good (great) time for traders but too volatile for me to want to invest I'd rather wait for some longer sideways trends.
Click to expand...

Might correct a bit down to 20-22 k for a while. I see Bitcoin rebounded to near 25 k in a few days, lightning-fast. This is how fast it is when you miss the opportunity.

Yes, perhaps it will not go down to 10-11 k and 20 k might have been the best bargain before it rides the logarithmic growth waves. I also don't think it will ever go down to 5 k.

What is amazing is Ethereum now. On board with the proof-of-stake now and almost doubled in price. 1 k ETH was a bargain. Now it's almost 2 k.

Yes, these are all buying opportunities and cryptos aren't dead. They're far from being dead.
 
short term price action prediction is just gambling, dont pretend you get any insight from these indicators. what indicator did you use to get out of luna at the right time or just feel it in your waters?
 
TreasureHunter said:
Regretting what you never tried terribly worse than what the mistakes you made.
Click to expand...

I suppose that needs to come with the caveat "the informed decisions you make will generally reward you better than those you made because FOMO (i.e. emotion for the old school traders)"
 
dozerz said:
short term price action prediction is just gambling, dont pretend you get any insight from these indicators. what indicator did you use to get out of Luna at the right time or just feel it in your waters?
Click to expand...

I used the common sense indicator.
Many people don't use it.
The moment Do Kwon decided to change Luna's strategy by first agreeing to include only BTC to peg within the Stable coin strategy, which I
first thought was an excellent idea and then changing it entirely by including other Alt Coins such as Cosmos was a big red flag for me.
He was boasting about it on Twitter when I first got wind of it.
It had danger written all over it.
At the time Luna was beginning to show signs of de-pegging from the USD.

A few days later, I got my son out of them just before the collapse the following day.
He got out of them fairly unscathed.
 
heartastack said:
I suppose that needs to come with the caveat "the informed decisions you make will generally reward you better than those you made because FOMO (i.e. emotion for the old school traders)"
Click to expand...

Of course. But any missed opportunity that you thought about a lot and just didn't have the courage to try/couldn't adopt a decision is very painful to deal with later on.
 
Michael Saylor is a permabull, because he must be - he bought so much Bitcoin (between 17,000 and 18,000, if the online sources are correct), he'd be losing massively, should he admit he doesn't entirely trust it.

He already lost tremendous amounts during this correction/crash, but will always be bullish.

The same reason why gold-bug, gold-dealer Peter Schiff is bullish on gold.

The Fed is bullish on the dollar, right?

:D :D :D

How funny to find all these correlations. Now guess who is right: Fed, Saylor or Schiff? :D
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
Looks like 12k coming for sure now. Saylor should have bought gold at $1200 instead but of course hes the expert hehe.

The "Peter Schiff was right" videos are already stacking up on YouTube.
Click to expand...

Schiff is a goose. Doesn't take much talent to be a bear in any market. Just show your face at the sign of every dip, there's enough ignorant fools to keep your face in the media and earn a healthy living.

So far none of the crypto hater's predictions have come true. What ever happened to Marc faber? In 2018 he said the USD strength won't last long. Is he a crypto advocate now?
 
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