Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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serial said:
I think this statement is incorrect, this forum had several people pumping cryptos, talking about the money they were making every day and offering to assist people into investing in the complex market that was cryptos. one member who has been silent since February was hyper aggressive against people like me calling it out for the bubble it is making claims of $100k + bitcoin etc and that I was just crying because I wasn't in the market. now if members had listened to him and invested in just bitcoin from the time he 1st started to promote it on this forum to now then they would be lucky to have 30% of their investment left. assuming their cryptos haven't been stolen by one of the many hacks online

I, was one of several members pointing how unstable and unsafe cryptos are as an investment and that they have no intrinsic value and are therefore a sophisticated ponzi scheme. despite being personally attacked and having my opinion picked apart using other peoples definitions I maintained my position which has been vindicated with time
I find it funny how crypto supporters are still trying to use technical details of cryptos and other peoples lack of technical knowledge as a basis for their position that cryptos are worth money. the expression is not being able to see the woods for the trees.
now I am sure I will field the usual insults of how I don't know what intrinsic value is and how I don't understand what crypto is so how can I comment on its value. I do understand how human nature works, markets work and how commodities work.
bitcoin has yet to properly drop but it will happen soon
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The person you are referring to was very helpful to a lot of people who were new to this space. I can only speak for myself, but he spent hours and hours of his own time just educating me on several aspects and I am forever thankful he did. He never shilled a coin to me, never asked me to sign up to anything with his referral link - he was genuinely just helping me understand. I know you two had your beef and exchanged a lot of words with each other, so I'm not getting involved in that but I will say he was very helpful for me and very honest/transparent

As for this whole intrinsic value argument, does that just apply to BTC for you? I don't own any BTC, and have no desire to acquire any in the near future either. I am invested in alt coins, which are real world business' changing the way many things are done, and doing so on the blockchain. Yes there are scam projects and even ponzi schemes in this space, but there are also plenty of really innovative things going on, and that's the sort of stuff I personally invest in. You can't just assume "Bitcoin" is all crypto, and even if you're not, it comes across that you are as nothing other than BTC seems to be referenced

Not sure how you can say you have been right so far either. Fact is, most of the people who are in crypto on this forum are still in profit
 
I never said he was a shill, I said pumper, eg someone who was prompting cryptos. the fact that he was so helpful in assisting people in investing in cryptos right at the top of the bubble only supports my assertion.
again, you are using the technical argument to try to undermine my position, I have always said there is a need for a way to trade instantly world wide securely but as an investment vehicle cryptos are a great way to lose money. the only way to sustain the price was to bring more investors in or else the value collapses when people realize they are holding a useless piece of paper/block of data etc. this is how a ponzi scheme operates and all cryptos are a ponzi story told differently


I said that it was in a bubble, just because some people made money doesn't make me wrong, but the fact that the price has collapsed since I made the statement does make me right so far
 
@serial , your argument is illogical. On the one hand you say there is a need to trade instantly worldwide, whilst on the other you say that crypto’s are a useless piece of paper/block/data.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
@serial , your argument is illogical. On the one hand you say there is a need to trade instantly worldwide, whilst on the other you say that crypto’s are a useless piece of paper/block/data.
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I don't think you understand me, as an investment vehicle cryptos are a poor choice.
I do think that there needs to be a way to trade internationally with little to no cost. I don't like a system that can be used to control the population but simply denying access to it if you want to suppress someone.
bottom line is I have one opinion, you have a different, I didn't start the personal attacks because of our difference nor did I label anyone with emotional terms, I responded to attacks on my person and given the animosity of some of the attacks I actually get a sense of satisfaction in seeing the price tumble. I will revisit this thread in a couple of months or when it drops down to a third of its value again, which ever happens 1st.
 
@serial , I’m thankful you clarified your comment and reiterated that it was in regards to cryptos as an investment.

I was just pointing out that if there is a need for a good and that there exists a product that meets that need then that product cannot be a worthless bit of paper/block/data.

Comments made in this thread that it is a ponzi, that cryptos are worthless get rich schemes, that they have no intrinsic value, that unlike gold have very little history therefore they are worthless etc are not productive as they distract from the genuine debate around the need for a decentralised means by which value can be publicly recorded and transferred and are actually disingenuous because they display a lack of understanding of the manner in which technological advances occur in a compounding manner.

In other words advances in the human condition snowball, as a result, any appeals to historical examples of advances can often be of little value. The Stone Age didn’t end because of a scarcity of stones. :p
 
Soprano16 said:
Fact is, most of the people who are in crypto on this forum are still in profit
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The fact that a majority of people are still holding a profit means that everyone is no in rush to sell and so capitulation has not happened for bitcoin.
 
are there any new money brewing on the wings to drive up prices?

I look at Crypto as a momentum currency. It goes up on good news feedback loop and goes down on bad news feedback.

At the moment there is no good news, so no new blood with fresh cash to drive prices.

If you look at the last cycle Korean pumped in lots of hard currency into crypto (remember kimchi premium), as no one in Korea was mining.
 
Bakkt was touted as the next best thing to pump things up, but they've just delayed until January now
 
It is fine to make bad calls but we need to be held to them and not shrink away.
My problem here is BB was blogging and MAKING MONEY from the people that follow him.
What good reason is there to delete you history of calls UNLESS you plan to come back in the future and try the same thing but with a fresh sheet?
I have never had a problem with BB but i am amazed that he can go and delete all of his crypto talk and even some of his metals talk but has left in place some talk of metals that do not reflect badly on him.
Why do that?
Why delete some but not all?
The only answer i can come up with is that it is an attempt to clear the record before the next incarnation.
And of course i would have zero opinion on this had it not been for the fact BB was a blogger making money from this (or attempting too).
And as someone said above "BB was not a crypto bull" WELL HOW DO WE KNOW THAT NOW?
 
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sgbuyer said:
The fact that a majority of people are still holding a profit means that everyone is no in rush to sell and so capitulation has not happened for bitcoin.
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good point, it could still go lower, my pick is 3k floor.
 
good to see everyone now thinks $100 billion MK will be the bottom. Lets all make it happen :D
 
Gullintanni said:
It is fine to make bad calls but we need to be held to them and not shrink away.
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I also made plenty of great "calls", which were also deleted.

Gullintanni said:
My problem here is BB was blogging and MAKING MONEY from the people that follow him.
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So having a few ads on my site means I have to be held accountable, but anyone else gets a free pass... why?

Gullintanni said:
What good reason is there to delete you history of calls UNLESS you plan to come back in the future and try the same thing but with a fresh sheet?
Why do that?
Why delete some but not all?
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Stop being so cheap. Pay for a SS subscription and find out for yourself.
FWIW I deleted ALL social media I could. I did leave some blog posts, those which I may refer back to in the future e.g. RBA gold audit, how to buy/store gold, government policy, property related, etc.

Gullintanni said:
And as someone said above "BB was not a crypto bull" WELL HOW DO WE KNOW THAT NOW?
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Does anyone really care?
 
Sigh

What if, as an exercise, members graciously admitted some aspect of the opposing argument? I mean, heck, whether cryptos do or do not have intrinsic value, there were indeed motormouth myrmidons shilling cryptos at $20k late last year, when any reasonable long-timer would have been pointing to the 2013-2014 charts.

'intrinsic value'? 'utility' is a touchstone for me, though the Gov's success in constraining cryptos this year has reduced that -- gotta wait for economic chaos. But for my other point on cryptos, that they are accorded value as an expression of libertarian ideals? (Look up 'structuralism'). Well, that's an enduring value (ask the XMR guys); but it isn't 'intrinsic.'

Someone made a point about periodic profit-taking. Splendid! We've been arguing for this policy forever: buy a bit of crypto to learn the ropes. Sell enough early on to break even. (Take your companion to dinner.) Keep that Bitcoin to buy in on the low point a year or more later. Sell again at a reasonable profit next time around. Shuffle some profit across into silver. Sleep well at night.
 
It’s easy to confuse the notion of intrinsic quality with intrinsic value.

We value objects because of their intrinsic qualities eg Gold has lustre, doesn’t corrode etc, not because they have any intrinsic value.
 
'It’s easy to confuse the notion of intrinsic quality with intrinsic value.'

Morning, shiney. I accept this distinction in a philosophical sense. But surely if 'we value objects because of their intrinsic qualities,' then 'value = quality.'

And for the purposes of our discourse here: if cryptos have the utility of (among others) seamless international transfers, then may we work on the basis that this intrinsic quality = an intrinsic value?
 
To say that crypto has potential is to say that "technology stocks" have potential which we all know is true. But the problem with "investing" in a speculative bubble is when do you buy, which to buy, and when to dump everything.

In comparison with gold and even silver, cryptos are many times more risky due to their bubble nature and unlike elements, technology can be replaced very quicky by newer technology. There's an opportunity to make a fortune, but that was like 2 years ago.
 
Agreed, sg. Note though, that my mob is not here to promote cryptos as in investment, but as a technology many of whose enthusiasts share bullion-bug values.
 
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