Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

[mmm....shiney!]

BTC dominance pushing 54% now

Alts are getting absolutely destroyed

Good buying for those with some cash to spare. Alt projects are pushing ahead without regard to the price crash, fundamentals haven't changed, I'm liking the regular updates I get from the likes of Atonomi and Theta as examples and to a lesser extent Polymath (they don't update as often). BNB is in accumulate price phase IMO as it's getting close to where it was before it released it's news of decentralising and also moving to bermuda months ago.

Just don't have enough cash to buy everything I like.

 

[Soprano16]

Yeah I actually bought a bag 2 days ago - first time I have bought in 6+ months I reckon

Will look to buy another bag soon too, because this is definitely accumulation time

 

[dozerz]

wanchain was at 30% discount today, erc20 tokens you should be wary of. many icos dumping their ether now as prices continue to fall and they panic, i expect ether will go lower.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Yeah I actually bought a bag 2 days ago - first time I have bought in 6+ months I reckon

IOTA?

 

[inmizu]

'Alts are getting absolutely destroyed'

Whooo!

42-coin is doing fine. Uno too.

GRS (my 'home-base coin') got hammered; but I got a few at 5891. And I got a bunch of XxX on the dip.



But yeh . . . alts are getting absolutely destroyed. Wish I better understood why.

 

[AllieC]

I look at Crypto like I did the Tech boom/bubble/bust of late 1990s/ early 2000s -> Cisco, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel all tanked BUT thousand of other Private or Publicly traded tech companies disappeared etc

But it took 9 years for MS to surpass their tech Bubble high in the late 1990s, 11 years for Intel and much longer for Amazon

While the tech bubble popped and I'm sure it sucked for a lot of people, the technology continued to develop and now we have incredible companies like Apple and Amazon. The bubble eventually turned into survival of the fittest and I'm sure the the same is true for Cryptos. Several years down the line a few cryptocurrencies will be huge and user friendly, while the others will have lost all of their value. The trick is finding those companies and then sticking with them (Gold and silver backed are definitely the safest bets in my opinion - like Quintric or Lode).

 

[Ipv6Ready]

While the tech bubble popped and I'm sure it sucked for a lot of people, the technology continued to develop and now we have incredible companies like Apple and Amazon. The bubble eventually turned into survival of the fittest and I'm sure the the same is true for Cryptos. Several years down the line a few cryptocurrencies will be huge and user friendly, while the others will have lost all of their value. The trick is finding those companies and then sticking with them (Gold and silver backed are definitely the safest bets in my opinion - like Quintric or Lode).

Survival of fittest is only starting with crypto, I believe the value needs to come down much much more before increasing.

I look at investing with 5 year outlook and when I look at crypto I don’t see value, as I think I can buy cheaper tomorrow, especially with my style of investing.

An active trader might have a different view with 5% daily swing, it have huge potential for big profits or losses.

 

[alor]

 

[inmizu]

'Several years down the line a few cryptocurrencies will be huge and user friendly, while the others will have lost all of their value.'

Agree strongly, wishing only to suggest that it will be more than 'a few.' I reckon some hundreds -- which is still a fraction of the numbers launched.

 

[inmizu]

'There may be guys in the bitcoin space that know a helluva lot more than the average punter on silver stackers ... '

One: I shall sit humbly at your feet to learn the basics of bullion.
Two: me and my mob been nose-to-the-screen cryptos seven days a week for 63 months. Happy to offer simple non-shill answers to your technical questions on cryptos.

'I can never see any bitcoin based altcoin being higher valued than Bitcoin.' Tee hee, I am teasing you, but . . . 42-Coin already is (there's just only 42 of them!).

Today's Snippet: the 'price' of a crypto

The $-per-coin perspective is common but not helpful, guys. You so often see statements like 'Coin XYZ is just $3.00 today. A bargain!'

Each 'Bitcoin' or 'Dogecoin' is divisible into one hundred million sub-units. The bottom line, technically, is that of transfer fees: the transfer fee can't be smaller than this minimal unit.

So, the number of 'Bitcoins' is sorta really 21,000,000 times one hundred million.*

A much better way of diggin' a crypto is to look at its $ cap -- and Lord, how shonky is the principle of 'cap'!! -- and its development programme/community/suite of exchanges.

Then decide how much Bitcoin or other crypto or $ worth of it you think you want to buy.

Then buy that much (and mark your buy-in prices for each 'packet' that you buy).



*In some crypto wallets, with a click, you can change from, say, 'Smith Coins' -- 'I got three Smith Coins!' -- to 'milli-Smiths': 'I got 3,000 Milli-Smiths!' And a 'Bit cent' is 0.01 Bitcoin.

 

[Ipv6Ready]

'me and my mob been nose-to-the-screen cryptos seven days a week for 63 months. '

mind me asking do you actively buy and sell, or only buy?

Most bitcoin I ever had was when I was mining part-time to buy another 6970 in 2012 so I can crossfire, since then bought ten with cash and now have zero

 

[inmizu]

'mind me asking do you actively buy and sell, or only buy?'

Good morning, ipv.

Most of us are traders, and we use a range of practices. So far, the fly in the ointment has been insufficient data; but at this point -- well into the 'Second Big Cooling' -- we'd likely advise thus:

firstly, ya gotta know who you are: basically stay-in-cryptos? or basically cash out to fiat?

We are stay-in guys.

Recognise the Big Picture: cryptos seem to have periodic Big Spikes. When they happen, wait until you think you are pretty much towards the top, and sell a lot or all. Don't be greedy, trying to gauge the tippy top. Take profit. Be satisfied.

Then secure the profits. And wait. Months if necessary.

You're looking for two things: plateaus in price during the Cooling, and ultimately the bottom (or near to it).

Here's the best tip of all: overall, year in year out, if you wanna make a career of trading cryptos, dig the fact that the spikes are secondary. Once you've learned to pick the right coins -- check now the YTD chart of Unobtanium -- you can trade steadily on the buy-sell split of the markets/steady week-by-week 'drift' in price.

As you become surer that any particular crypto is 'nearing the bottom,' you patiently start buying on 'the bottom side' (with the profit from the last round of trading). Go have a look at XJO's charts. It's a great 'training-coin.' Is XJO about to collapse and die? Most unlikely. Could you start sneaking buy-bids in as you get down towards 'the bottom'? Yeh. You could.

At that stage, you can start stashing 'packets' of coin you get cheap. Low-volume exchanges are great for beginners to do this. Cross-check GRS on Bittrex and Cryptopia. If the price is 9000-8000 on Bittrex, you could put small buy-orders in at 7500 and 7000 on Cryptopia. If you get a packet at 7000, sell half, and stash the other half. You might well get 20000 a year later.

Overall, ipv, we use a sorta 'suite' of trading strategies. We dig old-school cryptos (established POW 1.0s). We HODL hard, but we also sell large quantities when we're sure we can get back in later. We involve ourselves in communities.

P.S.: 2012!! Wow. That's way back!!

 

[sodl]

Anyone invested with NapoleonX . Income producing crypto . They have trading bots for a few crypto trades and other stuff also. Have been up and running for less than 6 months. They send you buy/sell signals and you do the rest. They are awaiting an approval from French Govt so they can actually legally manage trades on behalf of investors.

ETH/USD 487.72%+ , ETH/BTC 598.19%+ , BTC/USD 150.66%+

https://www.napoleonx.ai/strategies/library

 

[Ipv6Ready]

In anything digital, there is either a duopoly or monopoly and minuscule unknown

So which will any current digital survive survive

 

[mmm....shiney!]

In anything digital, there is either a duopoly or monopoly and minuscule unknown

Is that because the current system favours incumbents because of legislation and the centralised nature of those older technologies? Whereas blockchain technology is decentralised, which provides an environment that permits the presence of multitudes of competing projects.

 

[Ipv6Ready]

Is that because the current system favours incumbents because of legislation and the centralised nature of those older technologies? Whereas blockchain technology is decentralised, which provides an environment that permits the presence of multitudes of competing projects.

Even if it is decentralised, it is the people that will gravitate to one maximum two, look at anything digital related, in each related fields there are one or two giants and a few minor players plus the irrelevant.
Social media
photos
music
movies
office software
games
computers
phones
chip makers

If we look at visa, mastercard, amex and diners, why is it that almost no one has a diner card. But more importantly for any crypto to become cash equivalent prices will have to be displayed in that crypto currency.

Imagine a holiday in China, every item is listed in yuan, one would have to calculate how much is bread in my currency, how much is milk in my currency, and calculate before going to cashier, which is expected when on holidays.

Now say in Australia if there are hundreds or thousands of crypto money currencies accepted in Australia, imagine your everyday shopping in Australia, one shop accepts these cyrptos, another shops accepts few other, last shop only accepts two, some might be common.

Dont you think even without intervention... all shops will gravitate to one crypto and have the price of coffee, fuel, steak listed in one mainstream crypto

 

[inmizu]

'Even if it is decentralised, it is the people that will gravitate to one maximum two'

Hi, ipv. First, centralisation in incumbent industries is a different discussion.

But 'voluntary centralisation' in respect of people choosing the 'suite' of cryptos that will have the volume and network effect to be viable? Well, okay, before the first 2.0 cryptos were launched, there was validity to your position. But we are now into 3.0 cryptos. An astounding array of potentially viable cryptos exists, and may survive: anti-quantum-computing cryptos, in-browser-mining cryptos, smart-contract platforms, reward-for-using-some-service cryptos, 'commodities,' pegged cryptos, data-storage cryptos, privacy-centric cryptos, two-cryptos-on-the-same-blockchain cryptos, 'political' cryptos, DAGs, 'app coins.' We can't even keep up with the varieties!!

I'll plump for a number between one or two, and thousands (and we are ignoring the s**t blizzard that will be the 'national cryptos'). I'll guess a suite of two or three hundred.

https://www.youredm.com/2018/03/12/get-paid-in-cryptocurrency-to-watch-porn/

 

[Ipv6Ready]

'Even if it is decentralised, it is the people that will gravitate to one maximum two'

An astounding array of potentially viable cryptos exists, and may survive: anti-quantum-computing cryptos, in-browser-mining cryptos, smart-contract platforms, reward-for-using-some-service cryptos, 'commodities,' pegged cryptos, data-storage cryptos, privacy-centric cryptos, two-cryptos-on-the-same-blockchain cryptos, 'political' cryptos, DAGs, 'app coins.' We can't even keep up with the varieties!!

https://www.youredm.com/2018/03/12/get-paid-in-cryptocurrency-to-watch-porn/

If you are talking an investment value yes, no issue. There are thousands of different stocks, ETF and 190 fiat currencies, so there is nothing stopping creation of 1000s of crypto

But if you are talking everyday money. What you wrote is absolutely not workable.

Say one went to Coles for weekly shopping.

Do you expect each price label to have thousands different value in each cryto? ie every single product will have 1000 different prices.

So in an aisle of 1000 different products at a supermarket, that each item will have prices in 1000 different cryto

Do you expect that people will be ok that a price one sees on the price booklet says 1.5 x coin/token, but since the person doesn't have that coin/token, when at the cashier ten minutes later the person have to convert the crypto iat an exchange, which mean until one buy and pays, one doesnt know how much one is actually paying?

 

[mmm....shiney!]

I wasn’t talking crypto as a replacement for money

 

[inmizu]

'Do you expect each price label to have thousands different value in each cryto? ie every single product will have 1000 different prices.'

[EDIT: 'all shops will gravitate to one crypto and have the price of coffee, fuel, steak listed in one mainstream crypto']

I hope this is not getting acrimonius. I am trying to help, not argue. I sure do take your point. By the same token, we have, apart from the national fiat in each case, things like fly-buys and In-Store Credits. These are effectively other 'currencies.'

But a prototypical solution to the problem is already in use: you have a debit card. 'Behind' the debit card is a real-time cryptos-to-fiat exchange algorithm. You swipe you card. The cost comes out in fiat. But it came from cryptos.

Perhaps what I'm most focussed on, though, is my conviction -- held by plenty of bullion bugs -- that national fiats face an extremely uncertain future. When I was a kid, there were three brands of toothpaste. Now there are three hundred. Who knows what lies ahead!