Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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Polar.bear.Stacker said:
What is jawboning?
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AKA moral suasion.
  • Moral suasion seeks to persuade an entity to act in a certain way through rhetorical appeals, persuasion or implicit threats, as opposed to the use of outright coercion or physical force.
  • In economics, central bankers use moral suasion to influence market and public sentiment into believing that they are in control of the economy and ready to act if needed.
  • Most of this moral suasion involves verbal gestures and signalling through central bank minutes that can be picked apart by analysts and journalists.
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https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moralsuasion.asp

Polar.bear.Stacker said:
I would have assumed a couple of rate hikes were already priced into crypto markets
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And when these rate hikes don't eventuate...
 
alor said:
the tanking is just 5% - 7% drops, it could test 30000 soon enuff
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Just going back through this thread and reading some of the price predictions/commentaries.

Here was a good one: "August 2018. Thats when the bubble will burst."

Or this: "That's what tulips do....... grow, flower, & die."

And another: "Watch gold soar, as people lose confidence in crypto fiat and the economies slip...

I'll post some more later.
 
Rates are going to be raised many times this year. This is the only thing that I'm fairly confident will happen this year. Do not touch debt, including gambles that are credit driven.
 
sgbuyer said:
Why would the US raise rates, I think you should know?
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I've got no idea why. It would damage the US economy.

The only reason The Fed will raise rates many times this year is if they're bullied into it by politicians or the market. I think The Fed will hold firm until there is overwhelming evidence that the US economy can withstand rate rises. In Australia, my key indicator will be 3 consecutive quarters of rising inflation and then we may see the RBA being more confident of lifting rates.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
I've got no idea why. It would damage the US economy.

The only reason The Fed will raise rates many times this year is if they're bullied into it by politicians or the market. I think The Fed will hold firm until there is overwhelming evidence that the US economy can withstand rate rises. In Australia, my key indicator will be 3 consecutive quarters of rising inflation and then we may see the RBA being more confident of lifting rates.
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Well, same like virus, it damages the economy, but if it damages other economies more, it's still a win. Rates will damage other economies more. :D
 
sgbuyer said:
Well, same like virus, it damages the economy, but if it damages other economies more, it's still a win. Rates will damage other economies more. :D
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I'll just leave this short quote about The Fed's mandate here:

The monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve are to foster economic conditions that achieve both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment.
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Their duty is entirely of a domestic nature. I'm not sure from where the idea that The Fed will use the FFR as an international tool of economic havoc as a means to somehow foster economic conditions that achieve both stable prices and sustainable employment at home arises, but I guess some ideas float some people's boats. o_O
 
mmm....shiney! said:
I'll just leave this short quote about The Fed's mandate here:

Their duty is entirely of a domestic nature. I'm not sure from where the idea that The Fed will use the FFR as an international tool of economic havoc as a means to somehow foster economic conditions that achieve both stable prices and sustainable employment at home arises, but I guess some ideas float some people's boats. o_O
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Yes, of course, the mandate is still an objective. Businesses are now having trouble looking for workers. Due to the pandemic, a lot of people have brought forward their retirement so the size of the workforce has reduced, which translates to fewer people looking for jobs. This doesn't just affect the US and is a worldwide trend.
 
^ The Fed will focus on what's happening in the US - a strong and stable domestic economy with sustainable employment lifts the wealth of the whole planet not just those in the States. Conversely, beggar thy neighbour policies are a recipe for disaster.

Adam Smith worked this out over 200 years ago.
 
One thing perplexes me: most other/smaller coins have corrected back down (so deep they can only fall to near zero or zero):
- could this signal that the BET/ETC/overall crypto correction will be soon over (if BTC will bounce back up from 30 k)
- if it is not over, then the smaller coins will go where? to near zero territory?

It really looks like the smaller coins are already corrected. Just look at XRP (Ripple), XLM (Stellar)... Doge...
 
the brains are burned, recacitations are now futile
said the borg queen lol
 
A few more comments from pages past:

"I would like to see Bitcoin get around the $7000 USD level, but it could over shoot down to $5000." I wonder if the OP got his $5000?

On tulip mania - "But after they die the remaining bulb multiplies to more bulbs, so next time it flowers there are multiple tulips."

Not all comments have been generous- "If the bubble drops very deep (it can even sink to 2,500 $, I don't see why not), then people will stay away from it."

"Bitcoin continues on a downward spiral. I don't feel sorry for all them people that bought in at double the price now, especially if they sold their metals for it. That's what they get for a ponzi scheme. A digital illusion of wealth backed by nothing."

"Personally i think Bitcoin will be dead in a couple of years but still plenty of ups and downs to make money on it."

I doubt the views of the naysayers would've changed. Unless they finally "got it".
 
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