Missed the boat on 15 dollar silver

[Altima]

Whenever I see someone saying spot may/could drop by a 1 or 2 dollars, I think of this old proverb:

Don't miss the forest for the trees

 

[Holdfast]

Whenever I see someone saying spot may/could drop by a 1 or 2 dollars, I think of this old proverb:

Don't miss the forest for the trees

Confucius say...only the Cartel knows where silver will bottom.

Confucius also say...man who has a few lumps of precious metal can wait.

Confucius also say...there will always be bargains.

 

[dccpa]

exactly. What's the down-side vs. the upside risk. I think that is what we have to consider. Is 14 possible, sure. Is 21 possible, sure. Roll the dice and see which side wins. I've placed my bets. I'd rather a 5 dollar upside to a 1.50 down side. Is 10 possible, yeah okay, go back to smoking your peace pipe. Just say'n. I'm not predicting or forecasting price, but in my opinion those calling for 10.00 silver are just as idiotic as those calling for 60.00 silver.

IMHO, we are in a 2-3 month bounce that started about 1 1/2 months ago. We had a chance at a final bottom this time, but something stopped it. Rick Rule mentioned that we didn't get the capitulation too. Only pms I am buying are stuff for immediate resale and some things that won't be there by the time the bottom happens.

Key: "Only pms I am buying are stuff for immediate resale and some things that won't be there by the time the bottom happens." I'm doing the same. And I have a feeling you're buying the same stuff that I'm buying. LOL. That's exactly what happened the remints of the kooks. They were long gone at decent prices before silver broke below 26.00. That's what will happen with the limited mintage coins that fall with spot. I'm not telling what I'm buying. LOL.

I can tell what I bought, because they aren't there anymore. 2008 1oz gold lunar mice and a 2010 1oz gold lunar tiger.

 

[mmissinglink]

$15 silver will be seen as an overvaluation within the upcoming months as we will see a further drop to $14. I'm not backing the truck up until then.



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$14 Silver will be seen as an overvaluation within the months after that as we will see a further drop to $13.99. I'm not backing the truck up until then.

Honestly what's a buck or two per ounce if you think Silver is going a lot higher long term?

Depending on what silver product you buy and how much, 1 or 2 dollars can mean as much as tens or hundreds of extra ounces that you paid for with nothing but patience only! What stacker in her/his right mind doesn't like tens or hundreds of ounces of silver for free??? It's exactly what the smart money does...that 8% or 9% cost reduction is not nothing.

I think that blood will have to flow in the streets (hopefully only figuratively and not literally) before we see any meaningful bull trend materialize though of course there will be the usual volatility.

The way I see it, only the worst sort of permabull (who is smart and knows better) who has a vested personal self-interest would want people to buy silver all the time...when silver's on the way up and when it's on the way down for many years to come. Only that type of permabull would not throw out advice to newbies to suggest to them that under the type of conditions that we've seen for the past 3 years and going forward for some time likely, that it may be in the newbies own best interest to pause and take a smell of the reality around them and not fall for the fear baiting that we are subjected to by the type of permabull who is always warning that silver is indispensable and irreplaceable, or that it's money with no counter-party risk, or that it will shoot to da moon tomorrow and that it's always the best time to buy silver at every given moment, or blah, blah, blah.

If a stacker is buying silver ounces as a way to store as much wealth as possible for some future time (let's say for 5 or more years), then it doesn't make sense at all that they should buy silver at every single moment if the writing on the wall is telling us that very likely, we will see further consolidation in the price. I'm reminded of the same permabull-shit rhetoric I was subjected to for months at the end of 2012 and for all of 2013 and into 2014....that you have to buy silver at $38, $34, $30, $26, $22, yadda, yadda, yadda an ounce
because right now is always the best time and silver could shoot to da moon tomorrow.

That dishonest fear baiting is destructive and harmful to the stacker community for obvious reasons.

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[raven]

What choice of words will you have, when the price sinks to $15 and below, then you back your Kenworth up , all happy and content to be fourth in the queue, and then, sorry, we're all sold out mate !
But, around the corner, there's an inside deal going for only $21.50.

Get it while you can, or suck eggs !

 

[fishtaco]

All Guess work lol

If any of you knew what was going to happen you would just do what you had to do lol

 

[mmissinglink]

What choice of words will you have, when the price sinks to $15 and below, then you back your Kenworth up , all happy and content to be fourth in the queue, and then, sorry, we're all sold out mate !
But, around the corner, there's an inside deal going for only $21.50.

Get it while you can, or suck eggs !

That won't happen to stackers who are paying attention. There's plenty, plenty, plenty of surplus silver right now and for the foreseeable future. So I am good with waiting to get my free ounces.

Heck, if you are so sure that there will be no silver for the likes of me in the months to come, then just take out some massive loans now and buy as much silver at the current price as you can. Afterall, if you are right, it would be easy for you to make profit hand over fist in the very near term because the silver supply will allegedly be all gone when the bearish hoards come rushing in to buy and there's none left because only the smart people like you who purchased right now got the remaining silver in the world. Then you step in at just the right time to sell this very scarce metal called silver for many, many times what you paid for it and you make so much profit that you can easily pay back the loans and interest on those loans and have plenty of extra cash to spend as you please. Sounds like paradise, man...go for it.

:/


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[mmissinglink]

Depending on what silver product you buy and how much, 1 or 2 dollars can mean as much as tens or hundreds of extra ounces that you paid for with nothing but patience only! What stacker in her/his right mind doesn't like tens or hundreds of ounces of silver for free???

I think that blood will have to flow in the streets (hopefully only figuratively and not literally) before we see any meaningful bull trend materialize though of course there will be the usual volatility.

Silver "product"? Are you talking about Silver or a derivative of it?

What makes $14 "blood in the streets" as compared with $15 (in a decline from $49)? What makes you say it's going to $14 (i.e. is your view based on a chart, gut, tea leaves)?

Don't get me wrong, I think $14.XX is possible as is lower, just interested in the reasons that someone comes to the conclusion they can time the market so precisely.

Some form of physical silver...namely bullion.

I didn't mean to imply that $14 USD is the blood in the streets, just that there will have to be blood in the streets before we see a resumption to a the type of bull trend most stackers yearn for / are eagerly hoping to see.

How will that blood on the streets play out? Panic selling of silver by investors and some miners going belly up....that's my thinking on what blood in the streets may mean in this context.

The reason I believe lower prices are on their way is because by far and away the best arguments I've seen by those smart people who are writing / talking outlooks in silver/gold prices are all pointing to further consolidation (short to medium term) in the price. To put it another way, those who are asserting that we've hit the bottom are generally the same one's who've been saying that we hit bottom at $45, $40, $36, $32, $28, $22, etc, etc, etc an ounce using generally the same arguments all along the way.



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[barsenault]

Heck fellas, I hope we get 0.00 silver, makes no difference to me. Bring it on I say. Of course, I'm sure there will be some who will be very upset at 0 paper silver. For me, it matters not. I still see kooks and lunars selling at a premium. Sure the blobs might take a hit. But between my many kooks, lunars and collectibles, I'm just fine, thank you very much. Please bring on the 0.00 silver and gold, I really wont mind. And if you're a newbie collecting blobs, maybe wait for 5.00 before backing up the truck, in the hopes it goes to 10.00 for you to unload, or to zero, so you can dollar cost average. Because at 5 or 10, if those kooks, lunars, and pandas follow the price of spot, they will be sucked up by a vaccum cleaner, and I'll be one of the folks doing the sucking...and they'll be ZERO supply left, because there is a limited mintage...now of course there are the gazillion eagles, maples and philharmonics you can buy...or perhaps you can pre order 2016 kooks and lunars? Oh, and I'll pass on the eagles, maples, and phils, but I may have no choice to go with that stuff when spot goes to 0.00. Because for sure all the premium stuff will be bye, bye for all of 2015.

 

[Holdfast]

Heck fellas, I hope we get 0.00 silver, makes no difference to me. Bring it on I say.

I'm waiting for the day people will pay me to take their silver off their hands I have grand plans that involve a giant statue of myself in solid silver that will glare down at the masses... assuming I can get local council development approval.

 

[barsenault]

^^

Very funny. Heck there may come a time for your dreams to come true, but it may be in paper form...and so you'll have to make a paper machet. hehehe.

 

[No1joey]

Don't worry....we will see $15 in the next year again, I'm sure. Unless the U.S. economy tanks; but with interest rates on the rise the safe Greenback will push silver down again. We are living in a little of a dead cat bounce, IMO. (No evidence, just my gut.)

I saw some good, disspationate analysis that the USD strength will continue into next year which will maintain the downward pressure on silver and gold prices. I was meaning to summarize it, at least for myself. It wouldn't convince the doubters though.

Whats different about the future now in terms of cycles is there wasn't any real partnership to rival the US, now there is. China and Russia's closer ties (half a trillion dollar gas deal) , more restrictions in place on the financial system will slow down growth and yields, the massive amounts of fiat debt accumulated by countries such as the US with 20 trillion alone, and also the big one the new BRICS bank with members such as Russia China and South Africa. They will be working to topple the dollar over the next few decades, their future depends on it they can't have the US hog all the growth if their own countries are to prosper. Russia and China have a hell of a lot of gold, and South Africa has half of the worlds gold underground supply..

 

[SilverDJ]

but try to think about what level of risk you are willing to take, and think disspationately about the probability of continued economic growth or the probability of things such as
a meltdown and government asset forfeiture

Apart from crime, I don't recall that ever happening in our lifetime?
So odds are borderline zero.

bank account freezes

Apart from crime, and a recent change in inactive bank accounts:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...ld-bank-accounts/story-fnkjidjt-1226949101984
I don't recall that ever happening in our lifetime?
So odds are borderline zero.

and a stock market crash

The only thing on your list that is remotely likely, and actually quite likely in some form given the track record of crashes/corrections happening with regularity, and the fact that we are at various peaks.
Same, but to a lesser extent with the housing bubble.

 

[nsw2206]

bank account freezes

Apart from crime, and a recent change in inactive bank accounts:
http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...ld-bank-accounts/story-fnkjidjt-1226949101984
I don't recall that ever happening in our lifetime?
So odds are borderline zero.

Oh, google cyprus bank bail in.
also Brisbane G20 approves bail in strategy for all!

these two events never happened before in our lifetime, so your argument "I don't recall" is a bit weak in that regards.

 

[mmissinglink]

How will that blood on the streets play out? Panic selling of silver by investors and some miners going belly up....that's my thinking on what blood in the streets may mean in this context.

You mean silver miners like CCU & AYN who've recently gone belly up? Or a few stackers who've recently sold up their entire stacks on here?

The reason I believe lower prices are on their way is because by far and away the best arguments I've seen by those smart people who are writing / talking outlooks in silver/gold prices are all pointing to further consolidation (short to medium term) in the price. To put it another way, those who are asserting that we've hit the bottom are generally the same one's who've been saying that we hit bottom at $45, $40, $36, $32, $28, $22, etc, etc, etc an ounce using generally the same arguments all along the way.

And you think they'll all suddenly turn bearish at $14?

If 2 miners have tossed in the towel and a few stackers have sold all their silver, then it seems the first drops of blood have begun to fall. There needs to be more...despair with the metals market has not been reached yet though there seems to be quite a bit of worry going on from what I've been reading / hearing.

We saw $15+ USD silver recently...I'm not claiming that isn't a very low level...it is precariously low and if I had the same funds that I had when I blew most of my cash on silver at around $19 when all the chatter was that this was definitely the true bottom, I would be considering buying at $15+ USD...but probably not pulled the trigger.

$14 is a resistance level that I think will be a tough one to drop under. But $14 won't happen in a vacuum. I think $14 will see more miners call it quits and more paper metals investors getting hosed thinking that the prices can only go up from this point forward. Also, at that level the stock and securities market will probably be approaching their upper threshhold all the while drawing in investors to the thrill of riding this big paper rocketship that we can see blasting away new record highs every day. That rocketship awes the people and many get overly euphoric as they can see the moon getting closer; alas, the rocketship will unexpectedly flutter and those who weren't previously paying close attention to the fuel gauge will see the needle pointing at "EMPTY" but it will be too late for most to get off the fuelless paper rocketship. You know the rest of that story...it falls in a fiery crash (or if not a full blown crash, a "crisis").

It's rue, no one knows for certain what the specific inflection levels will be nor the timing but most of us believe in what we do because that's what makes most sense to us.

It's not that people will become bearish at $14, but a tipping point may be reached at around that level...driven by loss of optimism turning to despair....in other words sentiment will have reached a low point if and when we see $14 due to numerous factors not just in the metals market since the metals prices are not moving in a vacuum.


I've no problem admitting that I was wrong if I am. I am patiently waiting to see where and when the turn-around happens.

.

 

[SilverDJ]

Oh, google cyprus bank bail in.
also Brisbane G20 approves bail in strategy for all!

I was talking about Australia. Everyone likes to trot out Cyprus, but Cyprus isn't Australia.
But at least Cyprus was recent. When it comes to the security of safe deposit boxes for example, people are still citing the 80 year old US thing, that was before anyone on this forum was even born, I'm sure, probably twice the average age of the average stacker

 

[SilverDJ]

If 2 miners have tossed in the towel and a few stackers have sold all their silver, then it seems the first drops of blood have begun to fall.

And why exactly did they toss in the towel?
How many mining companies fail each year due to natural attrition or poor management, or just plain bad luck, I wonder?

 

[Gatito Bandito]

If 2 miners have tossed in the towel and a few stackers have sold all their silver, then it seems the first drops of blood have begun to fall. There needs to be more...despair with the metals market has not been reached yet though there seems to be quite a bit of worry going on from what I've been reading / hearing.

But do those people who do "toss in the towel" typically post about it on a forum?

Or do they just quietly sell their stack/collection to their LCS or something & take whatever they can get, and slip away into the night?


Also, what about those who have given up, but do *not* sell what they own, but simply hold onto what they have, tucked away somewhere, and have vowed to themselves to never buy again -- do they qualify?

And do you think they publicly post about it?


Methinks there are quite a few out there, who probably have never visited this forum to begin with, who have already thrown in the towel.

Just because you don't hear about it, doesn't mean that it hasn't been happening.

 

[The Crow]

If 2 miners have tossed in the towel and a few stackers have sold all their silver, then it seems the first drops of blood have begun to fall. There needs to be more...despair with the metals market has not been reached yet though there seems to be quite a bit of worry going on from what I've been reading / hearing.

But do those people who do "toss in the towel" typically post about it on a forum?

Or do they just quietly sell their stack/collection to their LCS or something & take whatever they can get, and slip away into the night?


Also, what about those who have given up, but do *not* sell what they own, but simply hold onto what they have, tucked away somewhere, and have vowed to themselves to never buy again -- do they qualify?

And do you think they publicly post about it?


Methinks there are quite a few out there, who probably have never visited this forum to begin with, who have already thrown in the towel.

Just because you don't hear about it, doesn't mean that it hasn't been happening.

It would be nice to hear from people "in the trade" if they have a way of measuring the kind of sentiment that Gatito Bandito is talking about. Is it simply indicated by decreasing demand? Or if not in total demand, then by a shift in the type of purchaser?

 

[chowdersilver]

How will that blood on the streets play out? Panic selling of silver by investors and some miners going belly up....that's my thinking on what blood in the streets may mean in this context.

You mean silver miners like CCU & AYN who've recently gone belly up? Or a few stackers who've recently sold up their entire stacks on here?

The reason I believe lower prices are on their way is because by far and away the best arguments I've seen by those smart people who are writing / talking outlooks in silver/gold prices are all pointing to further consolidation (short to medium term) in the price. To put it another way, those who are asserting that we've hit the bottom are generally the same one's who've been saying that we hit bottom at $45, $40, $36, $32, $28, $22, etc, etc, etc an ounce using generally the same arguments all along the way.

And you think they'll all suddenly turn bearish at $14?

If 2 miners have tossed in the towel and a few stackers have sold all their silver, then it seems the first drops of blood have begun to fall. There needs to be more...despair with the metals market has not been reached yet though there seems to be quite a bit of worry going on from what I've been reading / hearing.

We saw $15+ USD silver recently...I'm not claiming that isn't a very low level...it is precariously low and if I had the same funds that I had when I blew most of my cash on silver at around $19 when all the chatter was that this was definitely the true bottom, I would be considering buying at $15+ USD...but probably not pulled the trigger.

$14 is a resistance level that I think will be a tough one to drop under. But $14 won't happen in a vacuum. I think $14 will see more miners call it quits and more paper metals investors getting hosed thinking that the prices can only go up from this point forward. Also, at that level the stock and securities market will probably be approaching their upper threshhold all the while drawing in investors to the thrill of riding this big paper rocketship that we can see blasting away new record highs every day. That rocketship awes the people and many get overly euphoric as they can see the moon getting closer; alas, the rocketship will unexpectedly flutter and those who weren't previously paying close attention to the fuel gauge will see the needle pointing at "EMPTY" but it will be too late for most to get off the fuelless paper rocketship. You know the rest of that story...it falls in a fiery crash (or if not a full blown crash, a "crisis").

It's rue, no one knows for certain what the specific inflection levels will be nor the timing but most of us believe in what we do because that's what makes most sense to us.

It's not that people will become bearish at $14, but a tipping point may be reached at around that level...driven by loss of optimism turning to despair....in other words sentiment will have reached a low point if and when we see $14 due to numerous factors not just in the metals market since the metals prices are not moving in a vacuum.


I've no problem admitting that I was wrong if I am. I am patiently waiting to see where and when the turn-around happens.

.

Great Post. However, I swear I read similar posts when silver was $19, and that i just wasn't going to drop much more, but had a lot of upside. Wouldn't the same be said if it drops through $14. ... with people saying $12 is a resistance that will be tough. I have absolutely no idea if we will be at $17 US next week or $15. Likely somewhere in-between if I had to random guess.