Good news Crew,
The long-term correction in silver and gold is finally over!
(Unless I stand in need of ummm... a correction).
Silver has been tracing out its moves largely within the pennant formation that I posted up some weeks back. We still have a little way to go however before we finally break out to the upside on both charts perhaps just a month or so. (Always assuming we don't get another black-silver swan out of left field!)
Both metals hit their respective lows last week and the coming up moves should be fairly powerful, although not unopposed. (I'm expecting a kind of "Time Warp" move a jump up then a step to the right then one more sharp drop again then a gentler 'normal' up-move (if you can remember one of those even looks like!)
Sentiment is currently at rock bottom which is always very exciting!
It's always hard to make exact predictions however because all the bullish factors are currently lined up like domino's - and who can say which one will fall first?
Quite apart from the chart itself we are probably going to see a big QE-type event coming out of Europe sometime soon. Merkel has finally 'caved-in' (probably right on cue) to the idea of direct bank funding even though we have already seen that the ECB can get around those 'rules' by the LTRO shell game. Naturally silver and gold will both be hit hard when any announcement is finally made, but let's see if any lasting damage is done to the metal prices.
Of course, once Europe 'prints' the Euro will slide and the US dollar will rise. Not so good if you aim to kill the dollar, so (as per Jim Sinclair's 'Currency Wars' book) the US will quickly 'retaliate' with it's own massive QE3 package. (Probably a big one some say it's coming in September.)
As always, their aim is to generate the greatest possible amount of global indebtedness. QE3 will produce an extraordinary backlash from developing countries and may even be the final straw that eventually destroys the doomed USD later this year probably while the upcoming Middle East war is just getting nicely warmed up.
It's always hard to think like a Central Banker. I tried doing it briefly late last year just for an experiment and snapped out of it just in time to realize that several people where bidding for dear old Grandma Turk on eBay. A lesson well-learnt!
Recently however there has been some talk from Michael Pento about Ben's upcoming 'plans' which might easily unleash hyperinflation and send the metals and commodities into orbit. (Frankly I think Ben's Rulebook only has one page, and one sentence which reads "Smash Silver!" but that's a matter for another time...)
Pento's thoughts go like this... all the QE1 and QE2 money was originally 'given' to the zombie banks so they could cover their nakedness (financially speaking). Once that cash was 'in' their balance sheets the banks simply put it all back on deposit (at 0.25% or so) at the nearest Fed branch - thanks to Uncle Ben's oats and kindness. Not a bad little risk-free earner. The money never actually goes anywhere near High Street and thus there is no real 'money velocity' factor and hence no significant inflation.
But what if Dr. Ben decides to suddenly stop paying 0.25% on those excess funds? What if that 'dormant' money is suddenly (and quite necessarily!) thrust upon High Street in the form of ultra cheap loans which can each then be subsequently 'fractionally-reserved' by the relevant banks into further loans nine times larger? In other words, what if a few trillion 'dormant' dollars suddenly blossomed into say 15 trillion very active little dollars?
Moral Lesson: We ain't seen NOTHING yet!
I try to tell myself that Gentle Ben would never do that but then I remember that we haven't actually seen dear old Grandma Bernanke for quite some time...
SPOT : USD $27.30