Evening Crew,
We are currently tracking along the bottom of the pennant formation chart that I posted up on 4/6/12, with a slight upward bias as we expected. As I said back then, there is very little downside room, and Blythe's Boys are working overtime to hold the prices as low as possible.
(Last Friday they left their muddy footprints all over the gold miner prices, but luckily for them the CTFC commissioner was looking the other way at the time, so they seem to have gotten away with that one for now).
The silver price is now trading in an unusually narrow range almost exactly as it did in June and July of 2010 and we all know what happened in Aug 2010 to the metal prices.
(I remember poor old James Turk put out a Wednesday afternoon bulletin predicting that the silver price "will take off within 48 hours", but once again he was off by an hour or so. Still, he probably means well.)
Probably another month to go before we break out of the current pennant, but ANYTHING can happen in one month! Gold is getting close to a break out point as well, and many informed people are expecting a strong up-move in the metals during July (due to traditional seasonal factors price factors.) Then there is the looming new Middle East war that is planned to commence sometime after July, and grow to involve many nations. If current trends are continued (in terms of Syrian and Russian posturing for example) then it's going to be a pretty 'hot' war, and therefore probably liable to affect the metals in a positive way.
Crew, I did some serious thinking last week (it was probably bound to happen eventually) as I sipped my gunpowder tea and pored over the charts in my cabin, and I heard myself exclaim:
"JPM are not actually rigging the price of silver rather they are working against the automated trading algorithms that the traders *themselves* have set up. In other words JPM are shooting the traders in the foot with their own gun!"
That explains (to me at least) why their suppression powers are effectively limited. Some folk claim they could "...bring the price down to a dollar per ounce" if they wanted to, but I firmly believe the algos would kick in and fight such a foolish move very powerfully. My idea doesn't change anything in terms of their suppression, but it might reveal the limited nature of their evil powers. When I look at the perfect pennant, with a bullish triple bottom, I do wonder though, whether it occurred 'naturally', or whether the lads actually 'built' this pattern deliberately. If it was deliberate then they must have known all along that they would run out of wiggle room by about now. Does that indicate that this whole take-down was merely 'preparation' for some major positive move - anticipated by them to occur fairly soon? i.e. Is this low price merely a 'low base' preparatory to a major up move. Perhaps time will tell.
There are always so many questions. I think we need to beware of looking for 'simple' solutions, such as a pure 'profit' motive by JPM. Their short position sometimes grows and shrinks in ways that do not easily correlate with a pure profit motive. I think we need to step back sometimes and consider other possibilities. e.g. Are the reported numbers really true? (Some claim most emphatically that they are not.) We know that the elite aim to take delivery of as much physical as possible at the lowest price. Are they stacking monster boxes like we stack maples, or is there perhaps some 'massive physical heist' planned to occur at some point?
(Hmmm... 'tis powerful medicine this gunpowder tea really clears the old mind!)
SPOT : USD $28.40