Midnight to 6am - Overnight Spot Watchers Spot...
- Thread starter Turk
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Turk
Active Member
errol43 said:
My thanks for Errol43 for some fine solo sailing this week and for bringing us into harbour at a very nice $34.65.
Sunday Reflections...
OK, time to sit down in the old cabin and make a few notes on the past week and the coming weeks.
Well last Monday's CME margin change was a non-event, despite the global panic set off by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's original "100% Margin" bulletin. (Fortunately one of the CME cleaners, dusting off desks late on Sunday night, happened to glimpse the original bulletin, and realizing that it might be mildly ambiguous took it upon himself to fax an amended copy out to a frightened world. Such a pity his small salary will never reflect the multi-billion dollar global carnage he prevented.)
In fact, the generally lower initial margins at the CME may have even contributed to a modest relief rally on Monday, although some of that froth subsided later in the week.
Before turning to Europe let's not lose sight of the fact that the U.S. is in a much worse position than either Greece or Italy. In U.S. terms the Greek sideshow is a planned distraction; a charade pre-determined many years ago to obscure the problems in the U.S. Dollar.
The European Charade Escalates
The current Italian 'crisis' is not "The Big Crash". The big one will eventually come of course, but when it does it will be triggered by a sudden collapse in the *German* bond market not Greece, Portugal, Italy or even France. When Germany's bonds finally collapse it will be time to commence "ignition sequence one" on your financial survival plans.
Backing up slightly, it now seems fairly likely that the whole Greek tragedy was a carefully crafted event to 'educate' us on the subject of Sovereign Credit Defaults. After twenty months of bailouts, discussions, half-measures, back tracks, endless meetings (and so on) we have 'learnt' that SCDs are a big problem that only our wise leaders and their clever bankers can possibly hope to resolve.
"But the Greek Crisis was Real wasn't it?"
Consider how Greece recently 'defaulted' by 50% - yet it wasn't officially classified as a 'default'. Those CDS ("bond-insurance") policies didn't pay anything because only "half" of the house was destroyed by the fire! (Now that these CDS 'insurance' policies have been proven worthless do you think investors will continue to buy sovereign bonds going forward?)
The Greek referendum was a lovely touch too! "Poor little Greece" quickly lost its 'helpless victim status' when it requested a few moments of privacy to question the motives of its generous 'saviours'...
Greece (weakly): "Help!"
Merkel: "Hang on! Help is on its way! We're all in this together and always will be."
Greece (faintly): "Send some cash!"
EU/IMF: "Never Fear! The EFSF is here! Boy, have we got an offer for you!"
Greece (suddenly alert): "Ummm... can we discuss that and get back to you after Christmas. We kinda might prefer to drown..."
Narky Sarky: "You are irrational and dangerous..."
Greece (puzzled): "But surely it's our choice?"
Merkel: "Just let 'em drown Sarky. They're starting to frighten the neighbours."
"What about the one trillion dollar EFSF firewall? Surely that was real!"
Well, that huge figure was 'derived' by a series of leveraged promises. It was mainly generated by 'buying' insurance policies (like those CDS policies!) with money taken from a $440 billion base 'fund'. But even that $440bn was derived from many earlier promises from countries who frankly NEVER expected to be asked to actually *deliver* the money! It was sort of expected that if enough promises were made then nobody would notice that actually no-one had really given anything yet! After all, if France gave what she had promised she would immediately lose her AAA credit rating and need a bailout with her own leveraged money so all things considered it was probably wiser to just hold onto it! (Ummm... Sorry about the Greece!) Nevertheless, I'm quite certain that someone must have passed a tin cup around at one of the recent G20 meetings and a few loose coins and some ALDI trolley tokens were tossed in with perhaps a few personal IOUs thrown in for good measure. After all it would be a bit misleading to try to leverage *zero* assets and a range of undeliverable promises into a tidy trillion dollar bailout funds, wouldn't it?
(Recently the EFSF tried to auction off 3 billion in bonds but wound up cancelling the event due to a lack of investor interest. So far they have managed to raise about 13 billion in total, which is more than I could have done, and leaves them just 987 billion to go. The saddest thing here is that that clever CME cleaner mentioned above probably now has these bonds somewhere in his retirement plan which is kinda ironic when you stop to think about it.)
What's the Message in all this?
It seems to me that all this has been done to 'teach' us the important 'Rules of the Global Collapse' game: Frightening austerity, zero chance of honestly defaulting, no real bailouts, no way to leave the club, definitely no referendums, and no way to question the good intentions of those very kind people who are "only there to help you". I think that sums it up.
(No doubt the world will soon see that even changing Prime Ministers doesn't help. Italy might even pick up a new Carbon Tax like Australia! (Cue those 'spontaneous' street marches with people carrying banners reading "We want to pay more taxes - Now!")
What's Next? More Fear...
Now the big boys ratchet up the fear level by projecting the same scary movie onto a much bigger screen - Italy. Definitely too big to fail! Expect to be very scared! A default by Italy directly threatens France, because they bought truckloads of Gucci bonds over the years and now bitterly regret it and probably wish they had stacked silver (or even tin) instead. End result: French bond yields are now shooting up the Y-axis like snails on steroids. It's arachnus deathicus time!
There is zero possibility that any of the European countries can ever pay off these debts therefore there is NO way to prevent the catastrophe that is looming. The only way to 'slightly' delay the coming crash is for the ECB to copy the Fed's brilliant ideas and print one (or two) trillion new Euros and spend then on bad bonds. Everyone knows that, but they will pretend that this option is "Not an option" until there is no other option which might be quite soon!
But surely that's not legal?
True enough, but you'd be surprised how handy people are with a pen when their shorts are on fire. If that's what it takes, so be it! There will soon be a big push for tighter European financial integration (socialized debts and common personal taxes) through 'urgently' revised treaties etc., yet even today there exists creative ways for some 'limited' money printing to be carried out. Regardless of the process used, we can soon expect large sums of new money to be created and applied to the problem. (All done under certain 'strict' conditions, and announced by people with very straight faces of course. After all, if you are going to steal from you constituents you should at least look like you slightly regret doing it. Expect it to be announced 'out of the blue' too, for maximum market impact!)
The 'print' option will cause inflation to gradually rise in Europe sending shivers down Teutonic spines. This will be tolerated because the inflationary impact of fresh money printing can easily be 'disguised' for a year or so with very little effort. When summoned, Mr Inflation tends to loiter harmlessly just inside the front gate for a surprisingly long period, before making a sprint for the front door. Once inside he changes the locks and becomes a permanent resident. (In the USA he is already inside the gate and bending down to tighten his laces. In Europe he is waving a cheery greeting from across the road and it looks like he might be about to wander over to pay his respects in a brief social call...)
Will Greece be Expelled from the Union?
Probably not but if Greece does goes more will follow. But when you're building a One World System (OWS) it doesn't look good on your resume to get an "E" for Greek and a "D" for Italian. Bad marks like that tend to make people ask awkward questions about your ability to rule the whole world...
"What About Silver"?
Well, the above scenario can only indicate a complete collapse in the price of silver. That's right, silver is now a bad investment and your reserves should be sold immediately.... (Oops... hang on...) I've just been handed a note saying that the above comment is incorrect. Apparently the mistake came from S&P's Global Credit Portal but they have just retracted it. (It was issued globally by a technical error sorry)
The ongoing Euro situation is likely to be bullish for all precious metals in the medium term. Silver looks set to break out of another pennant formation in the next two weeks. Patience is required here; rush a miracle and you only get lousy miracles; the same goes for the price of silver.
Anyone not buying at these low prices today is frankly missing the investment opportunity of a lifetime.
The chart 'death cross' came and went without fanfare last week. One glance at the silver chart shows you why this normally significant signal can be largely ignored it's like a forensic coroner discussing possible murder weapons when the knife handle is still clearly visible between the third and fourth vertebrae. The moving average will now probably act as a resistance of sorts until later this week. Once we get through it we might see some larger buyers return. (They're a fickle bunch however, and their support can evaporate very quickly at the slightest hint of trouble.)
Stay Calm Crew! Another unique week lies ahead...
Week End Spot Price : USD $34.65
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Guest
Guest
Man we live in interesting times.
Attenshun..//////////////de cru memba h46..he be missin a wile now...I miss de old pirit..de songs he liked, dey were relly kool.
Captain Turk..What me der captin happen to de krose nest os de ss..Maggie be up dere at times..Did we krash inta berg 35? O r maybe de kamera dinee work too well frum de poop dek..
Don't panik dey be the ordars frum de Captain turk..Anuder weak of slo salen.
AK ER 43
Captain Turk..What me der captin happen to de krose nest os de ss..Maggie be up dere at times..Did we krash inta berg 35? O r maybe de kamera dinee work too well frum de poop dek..
Don't panik dey be the ordars frum de Captain turk..Anuder weak of slo salen.
AK ER 43
G
Guest
Guest
Arrggh anoder straing weik abord kapun Errol , tis liyk a yoyo on short string.
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Guest
Guest
Mishhunacumplshed orreddy kapun Errol , twas dekchais or sum such ting yestaday, I tink dey tink we is orl rich ere or sumting.
I tink we mite break outta da wirlpooly ting dis weik one way or anoder Kapun, i feel like seein home agin for a wile.
I tink we mite break outta da wirlpooly ting dis weik one way or anoder Kapun, i feel like seein home agin for a wile.
I bin in Eyeran to get some more o' dat R.U.M for da outbored, me arms is sore from rowin all dat way!
Can sumwun help hoist dese barrels up outta da dinghy?
Can sumwun help hoist dese barrels up outta da dinghy?
oops - a slite hitch wif my cunning plan!
I upgraded da outbored and sleeved it with titaynyum, chaynged the plugs with a platynum upgrayde and then went to fill er up with the R.U.M - then I found da problem......
The barrels I nicked errrr I meen ackwired haf RUM not R.U.M in dem
Tayshtes gud wit limeandakokunut tho! 
Anywun noe ware I kin get sum R.U.M lyke da Kaptun got befoor? It werked reel gud an got us parst berg 35 eesy peesy larstime!
Maybe Juliarrr kin help us??? :|
I upgraded da outbored and sleeved it with titaynyum, chaynged the plugs with a platynum upgrayde and then went to fill er up with the R.U.M - then I found da problem......
The barrels I nicked errrr I meen ackwired haf RUM not R.U.M in dem
Tayshtes gud wit limeandakokunut tho! Anywun noe ware I kin get sum R.U.M lyke da Kaptun got befoor? It werked reel gud an got us parst berg 35 eesy peesy larstime!
Maybe Juliarrr kin help us??? :|
Turk
Active Member
errol43 said:
All is well. It temporarily went out of the picture - like the US deficit last week
Here are our two Crow's Nests... (The larger one is only used when we have guests.)
BlackSheep said:oops - a slite hitch wif my cunning plan!
I upgraded da outbored and sleeved it with titaynyum, chaynged the plugs with a platynum upgrayde and then went to fill er up with the R.U.M - then I found da problem......
The barrels I nicked errrr I meen ackwired haf RUM not R.U.M in dem
Anywun noe ware I kin get sum R.U.M lyke da Kaptun got befoor? It werked reel gud an got us parst berg 35 eesy peesy larstime!
Maybe Juliarrr kin help us??? :|
Good work Black Sheep. You're becoming very handy with those cloven hoofs - and not a single opposable thumb.
Those platinum spark plugs are getting mighty expensive nowadays.
Here is our very last barrel of R.U.M isotopic uranium in heavy deuterium fluid, direct from the Ranger Uranium Mine in the Northern Territory.
Take it nice and easy with this stuff..
So much and no more! Never more than a spot, or something may happen! You never know what!"
One last thing....
Can somebody please tell me why half our crew are wearing UGG Boots tonight??
I'll be in my cabin tonight preparing a search plan to try to work out what has become of Hotel46.
Tuesday Night Spot : USD $33.90
dey be wearing ugg boots Kaptun errol43 coz i took dat spamzar down an i took dere cargo owf dem an gav dem ugg booties ta da cruw. da Copper baron helpted mee. he bee a brave one he be. i bee upt da crowsnezt dooing dowble duty. da ol Peli bin buzy latelie an needs help ta keep a look owt
$34.05
$34.05
Dat R.U.M werks a treat Cap'n, no wonder you is the Cap'n! 
The Outbored fired up ferst yank on tha starter and is purring along nicely now - mite be best to idle it along for a bit to bed in them noo engin bits tho.
Dese Uggies are cumfee tanks Maggie - I'ze glad they be the cheep sinthetik wuns or it wud be a bit lyke wearin wun of me rello's!
34.11
The Outbored fired up ferst yank on tha starter and is purring along nicely now - mite be best to idle it along for a bit to bed in them noo engin bits tho.
Dese Uggies are cumfee tanks Maggie - I'ze glad they be the cheep sinthetik wuns or it wud be a bit lyke wearin wun of me rello's!
34.11
Ah dem ugg boots.. thay all gone nour..Maggie she got a cupple of pares
up in de krose nest...All de cru hav em too..Maybe tanite we get de fur cotes and thurmal undies..Den we can sale furder N way past 35.
Black sheep..Ye got the reel ugg boots..Ye be as warm as tost..Go esi width dat r.u.m. we have a long run to de pole.
Give de spare motar a tune up, and nex week we use de 150hp modell and den wash us go..
Did ya see de pics of Maggie up in de kross nest..I dinee no dat the krose nest was so big..She mae evan hav a bunk up dere..
Captain Turk He noose all de hi tek triks..The spammer beta watch out for I heresay that de Captin was a paintur and doker befur bean a pirit. He noose how to swing a sword and also de bolt kutters.
AK ER 43
34.41 ^^^^^^^^^
up in de krose nest...All de cru hav em too..Maybe tanite we get de fur cotes and thurmal undies..Den we can sale furder N way past 35.
Black sheep..Ye got the reel ugg boots..Ye be as warm as tost..Go esi width dat r.u.m. we have a long run to de pole.
Give de spare motar a tune up, and nex week we use de 150hp modell and den wash us go..
Did ya see de pics of Maggie up in de kross nest..I dinee no dat the krose nest was so big..She mae evan hav a bunk up dere..
Captain Turk He noose all de hi tek triks..The spammer beta watch out for I heresay that de Captin was a paintur and doker befur bean a pirit. He noose how to swing a sword and also de bolt kutters.
AK ER 43
34.41 ^^^^^^^^^