errol43 said:
Nay silva progrriss repurt frum de Captain Turk dis weak...
I predick a $1 rise or one burg whateva yo deaal in..
What ye say deer Captin Turk.
I apologise for my delayed forecast Errol43. I've been a bit distracted lately - the little golden parrot mirror in my cabin went missing last night, and Polly became so bored he flew into the terrarium to liven things up. This morning I discovered him in there - hopping and bopping on the on the crocodile's rock. His little feet just couldn't keep still. (I hope the crocodile's rock will last).
Actually, I don't think he's ever had a better time.
Now my special charting mirror seems to have vanished too, so my forecast might be a little hazy this week. (And events in Europe could throw everything out the nearest porthole in a flash!)
Crew,
I'm expecting the short term price volatility to drop noticeably this week apart from the take down periods of course! The key points to watch will be the low achieved on the Tuesday night takedown and the high achieved by Friday afternoon (EST).
I expect the mid-week low to be clocked in between 8pm Wednesday and 10am Thursday (EST). After that we might see Errol43's one dollar rise lifting our spirits until the Friday night take down - which usually starts late on Friday night or early on Saturday morning (EST).
This Friday's takedown will be the key: I'm expecting it to be more severe than last week's, so we might still end the week in tears - with perhaps even the loss of a dollar or two. Time will tell.
(Maggie please ensure we have sufficient tissues on aboard!)
We are now in (yet another) consolidation phase - so we must remain patient. We have made some good progress since the September massacre but we can reasonably expect the price to fluctuate up and down (like a set of bellows) as JPM continues to draw in fresh silver longs, squeeze them out, and buy up all that 'squeezed out' silver to cancel out their own huge short position.
To do this they HAVE to let the price rise (so temper your excitement when it goes up!) but equally they then HAVE to make it fall again (so don't despair but watch closely whether the new 'low' represents a higher low than last time.)
It's these Lows achieved after each takedown which we need to be watching carefully - not the highs.
Over time we should see those Lows very gradually march higher and although there will be occasional setbacks those gradual increases will become the foundation stones of overall price growth.
So, the billion dollar question is "Will the available silver run out before JPM finish covering?"
I think so!
JPM are clearly working against the clock (and around the clock) to reduce their short position and quite honestly they are making great progress. Their overall short position has declined by a staggering 22% in ther past fortnight which takes it down to around a 10 year low. But they still require about 5 months worth of global production to cover their short position and that amount of silver probably WON'T be obtained at today's dirt cheap prices! So they will be forced to (once again!) ride the price up like they did in early April.
Sadly for JPM, the very volatility which they (and Crimex) are creating (by the bellows effect above) means that new buyers are becoming progressively smarter and stronger like limpets in a storm. They won't be so easily dislodged next time! New buyers are increasing their margins - or having zero margins and simply buying the physical metal.
The result of this will be the price of silver will rise more slowly - but that rise will be very strong - and JPM will be progressively unable to hinder it.
And that dear friends will be game over for them!
(Lime and coconut anyone?)
SPOT : USD $ 32.10