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[openeyes]

Technically the charts suggest quite a bit low for both Gold and silver.

There is almost an inverse head and shoulders on the Gold/Silver Ratio and with Fibonacci pointing to a level 80-85.

Let’s see - the background geopolitical mess has provided a lot of support. Should some agreements be made it would put a lot of downward pressure on the metals. Longer term money printing will ensure the continued upward movement in coming years. A significant pullback would be realistic and ensure a smoother ride higher.

Additionally we have stock markets still at very elevated levels. The reality picture of the impact that AI will have on jobs is finally starting to hit and this I expect will crash many things. Gold and silver will be dragged lower as an initial wave down in the DOW/S&P/NASDAQ.

 

[Azure]

There is almost an inverse head and shoulders on the Gold/Silver Ratio and with Fibonacci pointing to a level 80-85.

I see what your pointing at now... I was looking at it like a false reversal, but what you mentioned would be more of a long term mean reversion.

I mean entirely viable that we peaked at $120 usd.
But the GSR relalates to price, not availability/relative scarcity.

As for comex stock (registered and eligable)
yes, its dropping... but um... (was looking for a chart of the GSR of available stock over time...)
https://en.macromicro.me/series/17517/silver-comex-warehouse-stock
https://en.macromicro.me/series/17518/gold-comex-warehouse-stock

 

[JohnnyBravo300]

Probably needs to retest the neckline on the gsr chart to confirm the head and shoulders before it goes lower.
All the manipulation of the last 20 years will need to equalize with reality eventually.

 

[Azure]

So...

Asian markets are going to be closed.
Speculation is :> that US markets will crash out the XAG price, while chinas market is limited to take advantage to buy low...

But. ^^^
Western markets are open...

(Level 1 : thinks they are smart money) >anticipates market dropping, gets shorts in, in advance.
So... all their shorts, are already placed in the western market in anticipation... probibly with some take profits all the way down where they would be happy, and can monitor their positions and buy back anytime before the stops are hit...

(Level 2 : Smart instutional) >Isn't blind. but has its own shorts in a market that is looking to need contracts to close without delivery.
Incentive here is to minimise the potential drop. Buy back heavily while the chinese market is closed, (Covering in the lack of existing demand)
And driving the western price up, short squeezing the other short participants.

How far?
I'd anticipate a bullish drive to about the level of the current shanghi price would do it.
roughly a +$10 move, covering the positions required, and rolling others into future months as needed.

Bullish setup?
I think the drop last week was those shorts getting their positions ready.
and the "edging" back up to that 112 aud level was the buy backs for the overextended shorts that were placed to drive the falls, that were ultimately overkill.

Gold is already back over $5000 which means that if if breaks down again, Algorithmic selloffs on silver are a pattern likely to be triggered to repeat. It would be REALLY interesting to see gold drop through $5k again, but have silver go against the pattern and meetup with the shanghi price $10 higher.

I can imagine above that price, take profits, and other shorts would battern town the price above that but depending on how far they could ralley: Breaking $92usd as a spike, and ending the week down at $83-85, with the markets in asia re-opening to closing of speculative contracts is one way I think it could go. Potentially with another "Volatility" based margin % hike... you just KNOW they want a reason to do it again.