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JohnnyBravo300 said:
Anything could happen and weve heard it all over the last decade.
Every scenario has already been talked about and this same one many times.

He's just saying that oil and geopolitical risk is pushing gold up or that they are correlated in some way inverse of the DXY. Weve been hearing this for years now.
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We all know that the price of gold benefits from high inflation, energy shocks, geopolitical risk etc etc. Kau is suggesting that the wheel will turn and therefore the gold price will come under pressure and fall. Which is an entirely reasonable position to be pushing because there are good years for gold (and silver) and there are bad years.

Whilst anything could happen, I think the clever thing to do is identify the probability of one event or another occurring and position ourselves to take advantage of the most likely outcome. And if the recent history of the price of gold is any indication to go by, then things don't always remain the same.
 
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Well gold can only go up, down or sideways haha.
Make enough generic guesses eventually you'll be right.
I didn't hear him specify any time frame or price estimates, just said lower.

The trend is definitely up so he must be talking short term drops. There haven't been any bearish signals or chart patterns that I can see.
 
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pmbug said:
Why would they do that? Is it in their best interest?
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Profits are a reflection of either scarcity or volume. Kao argues that the Saudis have enough spare capacity to make up in volume what it loses in price.

A deal would also put pressure on what are termed the "free-riders" in OPEC+, those countries riding on the coat tails of the KSA's share of cuts eg Russia. The deal if there is one could be around enhanced security agreements which has been diluted under Biden, MIddle-East conflict and maybe even US investment in supporting the Vision 2030 roadmap. Lower oil prices threatens Russia's position which could bring them to the negotiating table and lower geopolitical tensions.

The Saudis accept that prices are heading lower: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/saudi-arabia-signals-oil-policy-shift
 
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JohnnyBravo300 said:
Well gold can only go up, down or sideways haha.
Make enough generic guesses eventually you'll be right.
I didn't hear him specify any time frame or price estimates, just said lower.

The trend is definitely up so he must be talking short term drops. There haven't been any bearish signals or chart patterns that I can see.
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Secular v cyclic. The long term trend is rising prices, within that are periods where the price either goes nowhere or falls.

If anything the price of precious metals is becoming more volatile which has a magnified impact upon portfolios. The last drawdown in the POG took 3 years for holders to be in profit again by about 8% (ignoring inflation and opportunity cost). The previous drawdown cost holders even more dearly as it took them 8 years for a 14% gain (ignoring inflation and opportunity cost). And then there's January 1980 until January 2006, 26 years for holders just to break even on their investment (ignoring inflation and opportunity cost).
 
Navigating the cyclical trends and the precious metals winters is the key to retaining wealth, especially as they don't "work" for you like other asset classes.

XAUUSD_2024-11-29_06-29-48.png
 
I don't believe the secular/cyclical stuff but there are times it might line up out of chance.

In golds natural state it doesn't change value or become volatile normally.
That's the fiat system he's seeing but he doesn't understand it. Lots of the experts don't really get that part.
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
I don't believe the secular/cyclical stuff but there are times it might line up out of chance.
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That's like not believing in the weather. ;)

JohnnyBravo300 said:
In golds natural state it doesn't change value or become volatile normally.
That's the fiat system he's seeing but he doesn't understand it. Lots of the experts don't really get that part.
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That's because value is a human construct. All value is assigned, including fiat. Fiat is just a unit of measurement, in our modern economies the price of assets are measured in fiat. They rise and fall in value according to supply/demand and economic conditions.

A lot of gold bugs don't really get that part.
 
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Ignore the 31 year cycle stuff, that's not what I'm interested in. What is relevant is the secular and cyclical markets.

Gold-31-year-cycles-since-1860.jpg


https://owenanalytics.com.au/2024-03-16-gold-31-year-itch

Looking at the chart I see secular markets from 1860 - 1880 with Greenbacks, 1879 - 1971 where currency was "backed" by gold in some form or another and lastly from 1971 to the present day where fiat currency is dominant. Within those secular markets are various cyclical periods characterised by bouts of inflation, recessions, booms, wars, pandemics, share market collapses etc etc etc etc. I don't think the secular market for gold will change but there's nothing to suggest that cyclical events can't negatively (or positively) impact it's price going forward.
 
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I’d say gold spot swings around $3800-$4500AUD this coming year…with current events, I don’t think gold will ‘tank’ below $3700AUD…yes, metals are slow moving avg.s but predictable, not like crypto and alike….and yes, you can make $$$$ wisely..
 
Yeah it affects POG but Gold doesnt have cycles. It just sits there.
Fiat currencies have cycles that affect gold but it's not caused by a gold cycle.

That chart also stops at 2k for Gold so it's irrelevant.
Its been far less than 31 years this time.
 
upload_2024-12-1_16-56-27.jpeg

I 'fought I heard:
"Rum for the hills!"
"De skyz is fallin'g"

I told ya de boatz upside down at de momentz, Downz up n upz down...
-member?

All de shoreters going in - flooding de marketz wif nuffin dat dun exist'z in meta-fourx-maginary-verse...

We all like: ooh no... its falling?.?.?... whaddamI gonna-do?
But were too slow, and dun sell our physical...

But Mr Parrot: All deez' Trumpetz r coming and wars endin... nobody gonna buy the falling shinyz, so tiz gonna drop to the Marianas; right?
noooo silly... it always goes left... i mean right... i mean left whenz its upside down...

Upside down boats dun do dis for very long tho, ey?

Herez de Math:


Investorz go scaredy sell-sell, an den big-battery go buy-buy before bye-bye liffium...
Samsungs not dev-eloping silva batterys for cars indusry an sell'n xplosive mobilez yeah?

Tiz like the Plank...
cept upside down...

Dead cat float?


Thinking I should stick to drinkin' the empty bottles of rum, and mabie not thinking so much about nothing being sold.

Shinys right tho:
Value is in in the mind of the beholder, beseller and bebuyers.
so, carefull what you pickup and make decisions on.
Broken clock is right 2x a day.... and nobodys perfect.
 
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We just had a run-up and the expected fall back but unlike previous big runs this one fell back very nicely to what seems to be a quite solid floor not too far below the peak. This is very promising. Might be time to go buy a few Christmas ounces at the local bullion store.
 
I'm thinking the same and the last time I hoped to go, my guy was closed.
I'm off work for the winter now so I got nothing but time and my cash savings burning a hole in my pocket. I should probably go convert some of that.
 
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