Hi Shaddam IV,
Your question is very insightful. Yes, three months is not a long time. However, there are a lot of competing systemic factors at work here.
For example, when we buy a potato the price includes a number of components. The cost to plant, water and harvest the spud. The cost to clean it and transport it to a central processing plant. The cost to store it in a temperature-controlled warehouse for some time, and the cost to bag it and ship it to a retailer, who then pays to advertise it online and display it in store. All these component costs are part of the total cost of the potato. The final retail price needs to cover each of these component costs plus leave some margin for profits along the way.
In normal times these costs are all well-known, so calculations and forecasts and predictions can be made. This certainty makes the market run smoothly. In a crash situation these cost components all fluctuate wildly. This means that the overall end-to-end financial risk of selling spuds increases exponentially. If a farmer can’t be sure of recouping his costs then he simply won’t plant spuds. If the wholesaler can’t be sure of finding a buyer for his washed spuds he won’t stock them. Similar for the retailer.
The main problem here is one of knowledge. Uncertainty kills markets. The crash will stop fuel deliveries, yet some fuel will still be available if the price is right. Existing fuel reserves will be tapped and hidden supply will be uncovered. But this takes time. Similarly, if there is no banking then cash will be king for a season. (The ‘value’ of cash will increase, because it will buy more goods than usual.)
Now, into this complex mix we have one overriding factor - demand. Demand is expressed by the price you and I will pay for our daily spuds. As the crash weeks roll by, I’m definitely going to become desperate for a good baked potato – so I will scour my neighborhood and gladly pay $5 for my spud. When enough people start doing this, the higher price will send a powerful message up the spud supply chain. Farmers are highly astute financial analysts so they will throw a bunch of seed potatoes into the ground and use any cash reserves to buy petrol etc.
Never underestimate the power of demand-based pricing signals. They are the life-blood of commodity circulation.
The upshot of all this is that over a period of months a new equilibrium will be found and food supplies will gradually return. There are many other factors at work here too, in terms of incentives and subsidies that the gov will undertake but in general, prepping for three months should be a good start. Some people I know are aiming for 6 months but that is a lot of shopping.
Prepping for 3 months takes an enormous amount of planning and logistics. If you can do more than that then go for it!
I hope this at least partially answers your question Shaddam IV, It’s a good question with a complex ‘system’-based answer.