Is it reversing? Im scared, hold me.
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- Thread starter Turk
- Start date
To touch on a point raised by Oz re the Chinese ban on refined silver come 1 Jan 2026, can anyone shed any light on the usual terms a miner may have with a silver refiner for the sale of their silver ore concentrate.
Whilst miners will of course wish to sell to highest price provider and with so much refining capacity off-shored to China in recent decades where to build and run a refinery is cheap, will the miners come under pressure from Govt mints, large private mints / wholesalers to redirect their silver concentrate to non PRC refiners to ensure supply or finished product.
Whilst China refines circa 60-70% of the worlds silver, they only produce approx 13-15% from own mines. Thus if the miners can direct ore to non PRC refiners, then that can resolve part of the supply issue but, subject to how long those miners are contracted to Chinese refiners from 1 Jan 2026 onwards, and can the big and small refiners inc those few in Aust, the US, Asian and Euro names scale up production to take on the redirected silver for refining.
It would make sense that the west and non China Asia should redirect their silver concentrate to home refiners or non PRC, but $ will usually drive where stock goes to. Unless Govt's impose a ban of the export of silver concentrate to China or the non Chinese refiners outbid their non Chinese rivals, then miners may just keep sending their silver ore on a one way boat trip to China as it's in their economic best interests. I think given the current US Administrations view on silver as a critical mineral plus many major global corporates production dependent on regular refined silver supplies, I think one of the former may happen sooner than later eg Govt intervention or higher margins payable by non Chinese refiners to miners...Either way the price of silver will probably still go up due to lack of supply or increased ore prices and refining costs driving price of finished silver up.
Whilst miners will of course wish to sell to highest price provider and with so much refining capacity off-shored to China in recent decades where to build and run a refinery is cheap, will the miners come under pressure from Govt mints, large private mints / wholesalers to redirect their silver concentrate to non PRC refiners to ensure supply or finished product.
Whilst China refines circa 60-70% of the worlds silver, they only produce approx 13-15% from own mines. Thus if the miners can direct ore to non PRC refiners, then that can resolve part of the supply issue but, subject to how long those miners are contracted to Chinese refiners from 1 Jan 2026 onwards, and can the big and small refiners inc those few in Aust, the US, Asian and Euro names scale up production to take on the redirected silver for refining.
It would make sense that the west and non China Asia should redirect their silver concentrate to home refiners or non PRC, but $ will usually drive where stock goes to. Unless Govt's impose a ban of the export of silver concentrate to China or the non Chinese refiners outbid their non Chinese rivals, then miners may just keep sending their silver ore on a one way boat trip to China as it's in their economic best interests. I think given the current US Administrations view on silver as a critical mineral plus many major global corporates production dependent on regular refined silver supplies, I think one of the former may happen sooner than later eg Govt intervention or higher margins payable by non Chinese refiners to miners...Either way the price of silver will probably still go up due to lack of supply or increased ore prices and refining costs driving price of finished silver up.
Follow the BRICS entries, especially the "partners of BRICS".
Take for example Pan America, one of the largest silver producers on the planet. A Canadian company.
Check out the countries they're operating in.
Shiz is about to go down.
When, not if, Mexico joins silver Eagles on the conservative side will be $300ea and people will be tripping over themselves.