Massive Wealth Destruction - Huge recession looming?

I'm in Paris ATM, there is an air of change like I haven't seen in the past here.

Poverty seems to have come up to the surface.
 
finchy said:
Spains unemployement within the youth is high,a friend of mine came back from time spent there 2 weeks back.

She said it was the best holiday shes had,the guys n girls there party & drink HARD because their aint no work for them,so they live like theres no tomorrow.
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That last is what a part of the population (not just Spain), does since decades.
It brought todays situation.
The topics question is about the other side of the story. The side that is rarely talked about. The producing side. If they, due to being unable to cope with the theft anymore, go under, then huge recession is next. That's also my bet, otherwise I wouldn't have been here.
 
Stark said:
Maybe there will new currency in BRICS countries.

Global currency is possible when more countries will start leaving toilet paper, I mean dollars. :)

The Euro is more political project that economical. Our country passed all Maastricht criteria. Some others didn't.
The Greece didn't. The Greece case is good described in book Fall of Euro.
Even Germany didn't always pass all Maastricht criteria.

There are many countries who don't want have Euro too strong/survive.
It's all sort of "game of thrones". ;)

Every "union" (Austro Hungarian ,Yugoslavia, etc.) in which our country was fall apart so chances EU surviving are quite low. ;)
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BRICS countries and other countries bail eachother out.
If they don't, they lose export to them.
What is any country, in terms of welfare, that has to live purely from its own resources?
A big part of welfare origins in the economical benefits based on the presence of a bigger/world market.
So don't expect the individual central planners to start to go against eachother. They know very well that their degree of theft would drastically shrink with the size of their market. And that's why they bail out eachother. See, they learnt from the past. Not that it will make a difference in the outcome. It only increases the magnitude of the correction. What is a Cyprus going-under on a world scale? A peanut? What is a Zimbabwe going-under on a world scale? A donut? What is a 30 or so countries going-under? See, the magnitude of the correction is always the same of the magnitude of the theft ahead of it. With one exception: technological advances that lead to higher production at same or lower cost. Reference point for this advance: todays situation. Not 1870 or 1930 or 1980. Good luck?
 
Potato said:
A global currency is definitely a while away, simply because we don't have a global power to enforce a single currency onto the world. Countries would just start their own currency again and there wouldn't be anyone to stop them.
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We have such a power. And all it takes are the major countries cooperating and the rest will join since it benefits them.
*Poof* and gone are all fake debts.
 
Silver bullitt said:
donpaulo said:
My source has the 6 year business cycle touching bottom at or around 8-12-2013

Anyone who spends some time studying cycles will tell you that there are an unknown number of cycles all at work influencing things on earth and each other.

But a series of waves are all due to seek bottoms between now and 2015 which is a 76 year cycle bottom

So between now and then I see more down than up

Wealth Destruction ? its part of the cycle so there is no point in fighting it. Simply prepare as best you can. I know I have.



For you lot in AUS, the property market has to be like sitting in front of a freight train. best of luck to you all
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The property market in Aus is certainly hazardous, which is why I have reduced my exposure to a bare minimum, however, the Aus market was never inflated to the extent of the US property market and will likely correct down mildly and then stagnate rather than crash sharply as the US market did.
Click to expand...

The argument often seems to be that things are different "here". I am afraid I don't see the logic in that kind of statement however there is always a first time I suppose...

From what I have read your average joe cannot afford to buy a house in VIC/NSW.

The price per square meter is beyond his ability to purchase, although with a 30 or 35 year mortgage and a combined 2 income family you might be able to squeak by in the Sydney marketplace.

The US faced similar price spikes in California and NY during the internet boom and subsequent subprime fiasco. Prices came way down off the highs although a apartment in Manhattan will set you back at least 350 to 400K in the starters market and still over a million for a brownstone. At the same time a 3 bedroom in say Phoenix Arizona without water rights came down under 100K.

Here in Japan there has been a long slow bleed for 2 decades. The market is tough to gauge and the ask and bid prices are often opaque when looking for property values. I know the wife and I offered about 20% under the ask and didn't move up from there. Waited about 4 weeks before the price moved close enough to close on. We locked up a fixed mortgage at under 2% and have the income to weather a storm.

But I am expecting trouble not saying it won't affect me. I fully expect the price to drop 20% and am prepared for it to go lower especially if Mr Abe continues to flush the Yen down the toilet.

Thanks for the comment
 
BRICS might indeed launch a new currency. So many news, declarations, rumours... from the past.

I wonder where they're at right now?

All 4 BRICS have been hoarding bricks! Of gold, that is... In 2012, Russia, Brazil, China, India bought a lot. In fact, Russia is the biggest buyer, China the biggest miner, Brazil doubled their amount... Indians primarily purchase domestically (population)... quite a thing going on in the BRICs...

Prolly they're preparing another gold-backed currency?

Hmm...
 
donpaulo said:
Silver bullitt said:
donpaulo said:
My source has the 6 year business cycle touching bottom at or around 8-12-2013

Anyone who spends some time studying cycles will tell you that there are an unknown number of cycles all at work influencing things on earth and each other.

But a series of waves are all due to seek bottoms between now and 2015 which is a 76 year cycle bottom

So between now and then I see more down than up

Wealth Destruction ? its part of the cycle so there is no point in fighting it. Simply prepare as best you can. I know I have.



For you lot in AUS, the property market has to be like sitting in front of a freight train. best of luck to you all
Click to expand...

The property market in Aus is certainly hazardous, which is why I have reduced my exposure to a bare minimum, however, the Aus market was never inflated to the extent of the US property market and will likely correct down mildly and then stagnate rather than crash sharply as the US market did.
Click to expand...

The argument often seems to be that things are different "here". I am afraid I don't see the logic in that kind of statement however there is always a first time I suppose...

From what I have read your average joe cannot afford to buy a house in VIC/NSW.

The price per square meter is beyond his ability to purchase, although with a 30 or 35 year mortgage and a combined 2 income family you might be able to squeak by in the Sydney marketplace.

The US faced similar price spikes in California and NY during the internet boom and subsequent subprime fiasco. Prices came way down off the highs although a apartment in Manhattan will set you back at least 350 to 400K in the starters market and still over a million for a brownstone. At the same time a 3 bedroom in say Phoenix Arizona without water rights came down under 100K.

Here in Japan there has been a long slow bleed for 2 decades. The market is tough to gauge and the ask and bid prices are often opaque when looking for property values. I know the wife and I offered about 20% under the ask and didn't move up from there. Waited about 4 weeks before the price moved close enough to close on. We locked up a fixed mortgage at under 2% and have the income to weather a storm.

But I am expecting trouble not saying it won't affect me. I fully expect the price to drop 20% and am prepared for it to go lower especially if Mr Abe continues to flush the Yen down the toilet.

Thanks for the comment
Click to expand...

Quite true in NSW and Vic prices are beyond the reach of the average joe and a market like this is unsustainable.
Australia, being a continent with a small population has a huge diversity in property types and values and some areas should correct down sharply due to hugely inflated prices while other areas actually have growth potential still.
In the US you can pick up a renovators delight in Detroit for a dollar but it depends on your lifestyle preference as to where you buy.
One thing Japan has in favor is your society is much more homogenous and stable in comparison to most.
This factor will make a huge difference during a crisis.
 
TreasureHunter said:
BRICS might indeed launch a new currency. So many news, declarations, rumours... from the past.

I wonder where they're at right now?

All 4 BRICS have been hoarding bricks! Of gold, that is... In 2012, Russia, Brazil, China, India bought a lot. In fact, Russia is the biggest buyer, China the biggest miner, Brazil doubled their amount... Indians primarily purchase domestically (population)... quite a thing going on in the BRICs...

Prolly they're preparing another gold-backed currency?

Hmm...
Click to expand...

You forgot about South Africa. I'm pretty sure it has some PM, probably diamonds. :)
 
At one stage, about 20 years ago, South Africa was digging up over 800 tons of Gold a year, by far the greatest producer.

I think that is down below 100 tons.

It still leads the world in gem diamonds but that production figure is well down also.

They will be importing both in another 20 years.


OC
 
World currency is not necessary to see US dollar declining in world trade use

If enough countries that trade with China start trading directly for Yuan then Yuan will gradually become one of the main international currencies
 
Silver bullitt said:
donpaulo said:
Silver bullitt said:
The property market in Aus is certainly hazardous, which is why I have reduced my exposure to a bare minimum, however, the Aus market was never inflated to the extent of the US property market and will likely correct down mildly and then stagnate rather than crash sharply as the US market did.
Click to expand...

The argument often seems to be that things are different "here". I am afraid I don't see the logic in that kind of statement however there is always a first time I suppose...

From what I have read your average joe cannot afford to buy a house in VIC/NSW.

The price per square meter is beyond his ability to purchase, although with a 30 or 35 year mortgage and a combined 2 income family you might be able to squeak by in the Sydney marketplace.

The US faced similar price spikes in California and NY during the internet boom and subsequent subprime fiasco. Prices came way down off the highs although a apartment in Manhattan will set you back at least 350 to 400K in the starters market and still over a million for a brownstone. At the same time a 3 bedroom in say Phoenix Arizona without water rights came down under 100K.

Here in Japan there has been a long slow bleed for 2 decades. The market is tough to gauge and the ask and bid prices are often opaque when looking for property values. I know the wife and I offered about 20% under the ask and didn't move up from there. Waited about 4 weeks before the price moved close enough to close on. We locked up a fixed mortgage at under 2% and have the income to weather a storm.

But I am expecting trouble not saying it won't affect me. I fully expect the price to drop 20% and am prepared for it to go lower especially if Mr Abe continues to flush the Yen down the toilet.

Thanks for the comment
Click to expand...

Quite true in NSW and Vic prices are beyond the reach of the average joe and a market like this is unsustainable.
Australia, being a continent with a small population has a huge diversity in property types and values and some areas should correct down sharply due to hugely inflated prices while other areas actually have growth potential still.
In the US you can pick up a renovators delight in Detroit for a dollar but it depends on your lifestyle preference as to where you buy.
One thing Japan has in favor is your society is much more homogenous and stable in comparison to most.
This factor will make a huge difference during a crisis.
Click to expand...

Adelaide appears to cost over 300K for a studio apartment in the city and prices go up from there. That looks like a market due for a correction to me. I chose SA because that would be my first choice if I were to make the big move to AUS.

Its my understanding that the AUS economy is fairly well linked with raw material exports to China and Japan so as long as the growth continues things will be fine round your ways yeh ? But I reckon should China slow down, things could get ugly rather fast. WA looks to be in a major bubble, at least that is what I saw as regards the extraction mining towns.

Yes Detroit is a "shoppers" paradise but of course then the state has you on the hook for property taxes which is the reason for the dollar price tag :)

The Japanese would have us believe that they are homogenous but actually they are a stewed mix of Eastern Asians with a top down rules based culture on top kind of like the icing on a cake. The most surprising thing I saw was just after the Tsunami here, the people kept calm and lined up to get out of town. No rioting, looting or violence. A very nice place to seek refuge in a time of trouble actually. Of course the flip side is that they import 60% of their calories and if food becomes expensive the Japanese may find themselves on a major national diet plan. There is very little out of the box thinking so things work as long as the rules aren't broken.

anyway lets hope things don't get much worse for China because it a major factor in both AUS and JPN quality of life
 
KMGeneral said:
Stark said:
I've read that TB is becoming problem in England and USA (I think) again as the "investments" in health system are declining. It's 21 century!
Click to expand...

Yup: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extensively_drug-resistant_tuberculosis <-- terrifying!
Click to expand...

The TB problem is perhaps a lot closer to home than you realise, in particular I think it is becoming quite serious in the islands up north.

Never mind, the pollies are on the ball as always (NOTTTT) :/

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/protests-win-reprieve-for-tb-centre-20121022-280y3.html
 
Just yesterday some of our journalists wrote column about having interview with Jean Claude Trichet (ECB), before he was leaving his job. There were also some other journalists from other countries making interview with him. Trichet said that all saving programs until then (Greece, Portugal, Ireland) were merely a "routine work". Young Estonian journalist then counted 1 + 1 and she asked him: "so based on what you have told us, the biggest problems aren't laying behind us, but before us".

There was deep, meaningful silence in the room for few seconds...

@BlackSheep: didn't know you have so many problems with TB. Here I think it's mainly extinct due to obligatory vaccination, although I think that people who drink a lot can still get it.
There was/is some revolt against obligatory vaccination in our country as well. I think that is true as some doctor said: "obligatory vaccinations is victim of it's own success".
 
Old Codger said:
At one stage, about 20 years ago, South Africa was digging up over 800 tons of Gold a year, by far the greatest producer.

I think that is down below 100 tons.

It still leads the world in gem diamonds but that production figure is well down also.

They will be importing both in another 20 years.

OC
Click to expand...

Importing from where?

Why import?
These resources are making South African exports competitive. The idea is for them to sell them and generate a fat GDP.
It wouldn't make much sense for them to start buying diamonds and gold in large amounts. Anyway, South Africa should start piling up their own mined gold for ensuring better days, if they're running out of it.
 
trew said:
World currency is not necessary to see US dollar declining in world trade use

If enough countries that trade with China start trading directly for Yuan then Yuan will gradually become one of the main international currencies
Click to expand...

What if massive monetary chaos follows?

Criss-cross trading with no new international reserve currency, but bilateral trades in zig-zag, trade wars and currency wars, thousands of local currencies...
Others accumulate Bitcoins...

Irony: what if one day in the future we'll realize the petrol-boosted fiat US dollar wasn't that bad after all? :P
 
TH,

Just a tongue in cheek comment on the downward trend in Sth African production.

I should use smileys etc more often.

OC
 
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