Market Crash Miners

M

mickjohn

New Member
Recently stocks are at best tracking sideways, I feel that the market is unresponsive to exceptional news from both exploration companies and those that have entered production.

Market Sentiment is mediocre - poor.
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It is now NOVEMBER 2011.
I ask, that you imagine for a moment that market has now crashed..... in a big way.

You saw this coming (congratulations),
You have dry powder sitting idly in a trading account,
You have researched several stocks in recent times believing them to be exceptionally undervalued,
You are interested in miners that have significant exposure to PMs
Blood is on the streets and you decide to jump back in.

What I ask of you

List 1-2 (max 2) ASX listed companies that you would target in this event?
Quick overview:
Are they exploration, production (if so how much), or are they moving from one to the other with an expected year/quarter?
Market Cap?
Debt?
Cash on hand?
Assets (onshore/offshore)?
Production forecast/costs?
Other notes....
^^^^^^^^

If that is too much, please just list basics like stock code/market cap and production details.


Please try and keep to the facts and as short an succinct as possible. It would be good to have a forum with several stocks 'at a glance' with their markets/exposure. I will be posting mine shortly.

Any advice on this thread is opinion only and should be treated as such, Do your own research and diligence and be responsible for your own actions.
 
Central Asia Resources (ASX: CVR)

Are they exploration, production (if so how much), or are they moving from one to the other with an expected year/quarter?

Exploration company moving into production at Dalabai Q4 2011 - 25,000 oz gold and 550,000 oz silver/year with a mine life of 2.7 years.
Exploration continues at Altyntas(target resource 1-1.2million oz), bizhe, kepken and kengir. Exploration costs funded by production at Dalabai

Market Cap?
31.64M

Debt?
Nil?

Cash on hand?
10.7mil - 30 Jun 2011

Assets (onshore/offshore)?
Offshore - predominantly Kazahkstan (very nice)

Production forecast/costs?
Cash operating costs $540USD

Other notes....
Several projects where CVR retrain at least a 90% interest. Recent capital raising now fully funded for development.
Negative: Exposure to national instability (offshore) and low grades.

Why did I choose CVR? I feel that as a spec play it will likely get hit hard and may rebound well. I am looking for a cash position that enables them to carry on business in a time where further cap raising is not possible. More exposure to Gold over silver as a personal preference.
 
Too hard, but stocks I have high on watchlist are RRL, KRM, TRY, and SLR.

They're all mid cap producers, I don't hold any.

Am holding RMS and KCN

Ramelius Resources (RMS) could come back into bargain territory with the plunge in gold price.
No debt to speak of. Had about $85m net cash end FY11. Will make plenty in 2 years of production left at high grade Wattle Dam; resource not closed off.
Likely to produce profitably from new Mt Magnet project at significantly lower gold price than today. All fixed capital cost about done.
Exploration jvs.

Those who bet on unproven schemes like AYN are courting disappointment. Why not consider an already profitable gold miner that has strong silver credits in its ore? - KRM, TRY, KCN

Lot of fraud in juniour mining stocks. Good luck.
 
KCN is my pick, just finished an aquisition of a big silver mine 131m Ounce Eq from Silver standard, and a dividend payer....

CQT is my other pick, 3:1 share merger with CAH this year to creat a mid-map producer on the asx, selling at a discount. w/ Newcrest as a one third interest holder in the merged entity (which will be called Evolution Mining EVO)...

I would also have a good hard look at Beadel Resources (BDR)

My main concern would be tight share structure, good managment (history of good aquisitions and shewd with cost), and GRADE of resource (I dont want them running out of Gold right when it hits $5000/ounce... I am also assuming an energy crisis so no deisel generators!

You can look up market caps etc.

I hold CQT, Previous holder of BDR, have plans for purchasing KCN
 
Oh if you can invest in international shares I could buy Silver Corp who (after credits) have a -$7 per ounce cash cost for their silver.....
 
mickjohn said:
Central Asia Resources (ASX: CVR)

Are they exploration, production (if so how much), or are they moving from one to the other with an expected year/quarter?

Exploration company moving into production at Dalabai Q4 2011 - 25,000 oz gold and 550,000 oz silver/year with a mine life of 2.7 years.
Exploration continues at Altyntas(target resource 1-1.2million oz), bizhe, kepken and kengir. Exploration costs funded by production at Dalabai

Market Cap?
31.64M

Debt?
Nil?

Cash on hand?
10.7mil - 30 Jun 2011

Assets (onshore/offshore)?
Offshore - predominantly Kazahkstan (very nice)

Production forecast/costs?
Cash operating costs $540USD

Other notes....
Several projects where CVR retrain at least a 90% interest. Recent capital raising now fully funded for development.
Negative: Exposure to national instability (offshore) and low grades.

Why did I choose CVR? I feel that as a spec play it will likely get hit hard and may rebound well. I am looking for a cash position that enables them to carry on business in a time where further cap raising is not possible. More exposure to Gold over silver as a personal preference.
Click to expand...



Heya mick.. ive spoken to management. They mentioned that the cash operating costs are calculated on a gold equivalent ounces method (aka converting silver to gold equivalent ounces). Therefore it is not counting silver credits. Costs per oz will be around 200$USD if Silver holds at 32. And much lower if it was at 40$. (about 70$ if silver is at 40$) Good luck trying to get more shares! im putting another bid today hope it gets hit. Plant is 70% completed (She mentioned last week).
 
Im putting in an order for Kingsgate KCN - Newcrest is also nearing its 52 week lows

I wish i had more capital this season is the oppertunity of a life time - news driven market gold bull market almost assured... undervalued galore!
 
Thanks for all the replies. I am going to put together a list of the above mentioned along with their respective market caps as a sort of time capsule if the time comes and there is value in referencing it.
Pretty big hits in the markets over the last couple of sessions.

CGT announced production today - building to 50koz gold next year... still down.
CCU is down to 63cps with MC of $134M
NCM is down $3+ today or about 9% to 32.86/share. MC 27,616.50M

There are lots of others ... PXG, CVR, AYN, KCN and ill try and get it together.

Something that I, as a novice am taking away from today is that stocks in general will probably take the biggest/quickest shakeout of any market during a new financial crisis/GFC2 etc.
As I consider this a strong chance in the immediate future (if we arent here right now) it may be good to take advantage of short term rallies to exit.
Just the ramblings of a tired worker ant.
 
Ok so all of the above and a couple more. Limited to market cap and the movement on a pretty down day yesterday.
Bearing in mind the below is foolishly based off ceteris paribus and does not account for announcements, options or any other factors. It is pure movement in market in 1 day.

I will do a follow up at close of trade tonight against the same companies to see which rebound/fall quickest. I will try an revisit a week later and see where its all at.

For reference
Gold took a hit but is sitting above $1600USD.
AUD/USD just below parity 96-97c
ASX200 is 3863.9 (Down just over 1% from trade yesterday)


ABU ABM Resources - MC $144M (Down 20.37%)
BDR Beadell Resources - MC $513M (Down 16.66%)
CCU Cobar Consol. Resources - MC $134M (Down 17.64%)
CGM Cougar Metals - MC $27.86M (Down 14.7%)
CGT Castlemaine Goldfields - MC $67.25M (Down 4.54%)
CGX CGA Mining Limited - MC $900M (Down 7.4%)
CQT Conquest Mining - MC $288.7M (Down 16.16%)
CRC Cortona Resources - MC $32M (Down 6.8%)
CVR Central Asia Resrouces - MC $28.2M (Down 4.76%)
EVG Envirogold Limited - MC $92M
FML Focus Minerals - MC $285M (Down 10.44%)
KGL Kentor Gold - MC $102M (Down 14.58%)
KCN Kingsgate Consol. - MC $1,016.10M (Down 10.26%)
KMC Kalgoorlie Mining - MC $23.83M (Down 10.52%)
KRM Kingrose Mining - MC $333.9M (Down 5.6%)
NMG Noble Mineral Res. - MC $$326M (Down 7.1%)
NST Northern Star - MC $160M (Down 6.5%)
MML Medusa Mining - MC $1,418.10M (Down $14.78%)
PXG Phoenix Gold - MC $22.55M (Down 4.44%)
RMS Ramelius Resources - MC $430.5M(Down 14.57%)
SAR Saracen Minerals - MC $393.4M (Down 13.669%)
SLR Silver Lake Resources - MC $454.46M (Down 16.1%)
TBR Tribune Resources - MC $125.28M (Down 1.2%)
TGZ Teranga Gold Corp - MC $511.9M (Down 8.2%)
TRY Troy Resources - MC $338.45M (Down 4.688%)
 
A few significant announcements:
ABU - Gold discovery
CGT - First Gold Pour
CVR - Commencement of mining (Dalabai)

Otherwise I wanted to see the range of movement within a select group of shares during 2 days of fluctuation.
Ultimately, biggest rebound was ABU (had announcement), otherwise CCU was the biggest gainer by percentage.

Funnily enough, the 2 mentioned above were 2 of the biggest losers the day before. Otherwise there were a few that barely moved (tight registers?) and the others generally picked up almost what they lost from previous day trading.
Final question to older hands, why did the MC go down on all? is there a delay on calculating market cap of 24 hours?

For reference
Gold is back up slightly sitting above $1630USD.
AUD/USD still below parity but up slightly at 97c
ASX200 is 4004 (up 3.64%)

ABU ABM Resources - MC $114.71?M (UP 18.6%)
BDR Beadell Resources - MC $426.64M (UP 5.385%)
CCU Cobar Consol. Resources - MC $110M (up 16.64%)
CGM Cougar Metals - MC $23.76M (UP 5.71%)
CGT Castlemaine Goldfields - MC $67.25M (up 4.54%)
CGX CGA Mining Limited - MC $833M
CQT Conquest Mining - MC $242.7M (up 7.22%)
CRC Cortona Resources - MC $29.8M (up 3.7%)
CVR Central Asia Resrouces - MC $26.9M (up 2.5%)
EVG Envirogold Limited -Name change to PGI Panterra Gold MC $92M
FML Focus Minerals - MC $255M (up 5%)
KGL Kentor Gold - MC $87M (up 9.75%)
KCN Kingsgate Consol. - MC $934.10M (up 10.25%)
KMC Kalgoorlie Mining - MC $21.3M (up 3.52%)
KRM Kingrose Mining - MC $315M (up 2.54%)
NMG Noble Mineral Res. - MC $303M (Down .7%)
NST Northern Star - MC $150M (up 9.3%)
MML Medusa Mining - MC $1,2088.10M (up $14.06%)
PXG Phoenix Gold - MC $21.55M (up 16.2%)
RMS Ramelius Resources - MC $367.5M(up 8.3%)
SAR Saracen Minerals - MC $339.4M (up 6.6%)
SLR Silver Lake Resources - MC $381M (up 12.2%)
TBR Tribune Resources - MC $123M (up 1.6%)
TGZ Teranga Gold Corp - MC $469M (up 5.02%)
TRY Troy Resources - MC $322M (up 10.6%)
 
I would be very careful about committing much to Kingsgate (KCN) right now. It looks like a level of support, as well as the neckline of an irregular head and shoulders topping pattern, that might be broken soon?

I don't know what is putting off holders and buyers, but personally I was not enamoured by the Bowdens acquisition unless a stellar silver price is the future.

Ag measured and indicated grade of 52 g/tonne?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=KCN&E=ASX&N=551722

Don't try to bottom pick it yet IMO
 
thank to all for the posts.

have cut & pasted & will have a good gander into the companies.

Got some fiat to play with and ASX ATM looks like a friendly playground to meet some new friends.

Just got to find the time to devote to this.

Might try a dart at the dartboard of alphabet ASX soup on offer.

Enjoy the ride...................
 
Mickjohn Evirogold is now PGI (Panterra Gold Limited) changed their name. due in production 1st quarter in 2012 fully underwritten with brand new processing plant and cheap operating costs. Yes i hold
 
Thanks tthace and others for that input.

I am going to leave it for a week and let the market re-settle a bit (hopefully it lasts that long), then I will re-post the MC of the above.

That list above isnt conclusive but it highlights in short time that there are alot of fantastic plays out there. Pick any one and research it and you will probably like what you see.

Personally, I am waiting for the next rally and then I am 100% out. But I will be waiting to re-enter. I was waiting for CGT production, it came with nil affect on market.
 
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