Lunar Snake buying strategy

TomD

TomD

Member
I note a thread here where a large number of silver stackers, a fair number of whom are knowledgeable, are prebuying Lunar Snake coins. Help me here. Based on what I consider to be the debacle of the introduction of the dragon last year at astronomical prices that later collapsed, why buy into the initial snake offerings? Hindsight has shown that the best by far) dragon buying strategy would have to wait out the initial spike and buy in a few month later.

Why would the snake be different?
 
Because the only chance you will have to get these coins at regular bullion price is when they are first released from the mint. The price explosion last year was the flippers on-selling the coins to huge demand. The dragon coins have lost a lot of their hype, but you still cannot buy them at PM bullion price - I don't see anyone selling dragons for $35. If you wait till the dust settles you will still pay a lot larger premium on here or eBay etc.
 
AndyRoo68 said:
Because the only chance you will have to get these coins at regular bullion price is when they are first released from the mint. The price explosion last year was the flippers on-selling the coins to huge demand. The dragon coins have lost a lot of their hype, but you still cannot buy them at PM bullion price - I don't see anyone selling dragons for $35. If you wait till the dust settles you will still pay a lot larger premium on here or eBay etc.
Click to expand...

Actually, Perth Mint's price was $50 at issue when spot was around $40ish, and a few months ago Ainsile (sp?) was selling the dragons for $39 each.
 
My hunch is that later this year, you are gonna see a flipping frenzy (beyond all prior experience) on SS. If there was one lesson every SS learned last year, that's you can double your money by immediately flipping your coins.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-24231-1oz-dragons-page-3.html

Some SS got badly burned by dragons, they brought much later at inflated prices and then tried to sell for higher, until people wised up that big bullion dealers were selling way cheaper than the SS flipper, who then watched his imagined profits vanish into a black hole. :(

Last year Ainslies sold their dragons for bullion prices on the first day, and at end of day 1, jacked them up. At the end (nb. to what the attached post refers to), the got rid of all their stock at bullion prices again. And because spot price of silver was much less when Ainslie's dumped their stock, that was actually the cheapest time you could ever purchase dragons from anyone - at the end.

Ainslie's did not do this with the Tigers, as when I picked up Tigers from them, that was in the middle of selling season, and they were selling for plain bullion prices. So... to summarise, with more & more people cottoning onto silver as an investment, and especially with the year of the dragon, being the most important animal to the chinese, I think things changed last year.
 
TomD said:
I note a thread here where a large number of silver stackers, a fair number of whom are knowledgeable, are prebuying Lunar Snake coins. Help me here. Based on what I consider to be the debacle of the introduction of the dragon last year at astronomical prices that later collapsed, why buy into the initial snake offerings? Hindsight has shown that the best by far) dragon buying strategy would have to wait out the initial spike and buy in a few month later.

Why would the snake be different?
Click to expand...

Hi, only 500,000 regular snakes will be available, these will be crazy cheap if spot stays low.. just $620 or close too.

Last year we were able to pick up the dragon bullion rolls for $800 in the pre-release offering from sites such as bullionbourse.

People will jump at this oppertunity as the lunar series is one popular set.

The debarcble you mention was

1. the lack of communication
2. Not selling locally giving preference to major international dealers
3. dealers not getting allocations
4. the plethura or alternate dragons the perth mint saturated the market with... namely Coloured bullion and loin privy.

etc rather than the Dragons not being a worthwhile investment,

So while the snake is available at the same price as a koala i can see why there will be massive demand, i know im gonna get a max allocation from all who offer me.

What you wouldnt want to do is buy of a dealer who is putting huge mark-ups on there product like what dealers were doing driving up prices and the hype of all of us who shelled out ridiculous amounts for them

Near spot these are gold.

1for1
 
But will we see such demand for the snakes? The dragons are considered the #1 must have of the lunar series so that is why they were rationed, snakes will be popular but not as popular as dragons. International demand will be less so more for us aussie buyers being able to buy more from the mint directly, instead of getting screwed buy secondary market.
 
1for1 said:
TomD said:
I note a thread here where a large number of silver stackers, a fair number of whom are knowledgeable, are prebuying Lunar Snake coins. Help me here. Based on what I consider to be the debacle of the introduction of the dragon last year at astronomical prices that later collapsed, why buy into the initial snake offerings? Hindsight has shown that the best by far) dragon buying strategy would have to wait out the initial spike and buy in a few month later.

Why would the snake be different?
Click to expand...
Hi, only 500,000 regular snakes will be available, these will be crazy cheap if spot stays low.. just $620 or close too.
1for1
Click to expand...
300,000 regular and 200,000 privy
 
If spot remains in the 26-30 range then I believe these will sell as fast, or even faster than the dragons.

They may not be as popular as the dragons, but if its reasonable priced bullion, then my bet is a rush on release. Cheap bullion with potential numismatic value equals greed equals mania.

Proofs, coloured coins, privies etc are another dimension all together and require their own analysis. The best strategy for these releases are to work out your own plan and then be very very very QUIET already!

BG
 
I'll be buying directly off the mint and pre-ordering from Maggie.

The 1oz snake is a decent coin in a decent series from a decent mint.

I don't mind loading up on a few in preference to kooks or koalas but I can't see there being the same mania as we saw for the dragons.
 
thatguy said:
300,000 regular and 200,000 privy
Click to expand...

Do you have a source for these snake numbers ?

There is no limit to the number of privies they might mint - including introducing other privies as well.
Just had a thought.... snake with dragon privy - yeah - that would fly out the door


My strategy will be to buy a few snakes if and when they become available to me at regular bullion prices.
And I won't be ordering and waiting and praying for months either - they've got to be in stock.
If that means I have to wait a few months, or even a year, so be it.
 
As someone who is not up on pre-ordering or Perth mint in general, can anyone please explain the benefit of pre ordering? Do you have a fixed price and how is price on release to big dealers even set? Is spot price relevant around release or dealer purchase date?

Were these bullion price +change coins before the dragon frenzy and is that what is expected from PM again on the snake?

Apologies for all the questions, just trying to get a clear picture of their process after all the todo over the dragon.

Thanks
 
upandaway said:
As someone who is not up on pre-ordering or Perth mint in general, can anyone please explain the benefit of pre ordering? Do you have a fixed price and how is price on release to big dealers even set? Is spot price relevant around release or dealer purchase date?

Were these bullion price +change coins before the dragon frenzy and is that what is expected from PM again on the snake?

Apologies for all the questions, just trying to get a clear picture of their process after all the todo over the dragon.

Thanks
Click to expand...

hasn't anyone answered your question yet? it hasn't been answered via a secret PM has it?
 
upandaway said:
As someone who is not up on pre-ordering or Perth mint in general, can anyone please explain the benefit of pre ordering? Do you have a fixed price and how is price on release to big dealers even set? Is spot price relevant around release or dealer purchase date?

Were these bullion price +change coins before the dragon frenzy and is that what is expected from PM again on the snake?

Apologies for all the questions, just trying to get a clear picture of their process after all the todo over the dragon.

Thanks
Click to expand...

From the Perth Mint and most Australian dealers - these are a standard bullion coin - so you should expect to pay spot plus a premium (much the same as current kooks or koalas) on release. During the hype after that - and for the following 2 months or so - who knows!! In my opinion only - there is NO point to pre ordering them at all because no one has firm-in-writing allocations yet. Even if you look at what is "pre ordered" on the various SS threads at the moment - it is a greater number than the expected allocation of any Australian dealer and depending on initial release allocation - probably bigger than the whole of the combined allocation to Australian dealers going by dragon allocations!

Further information/discussion is on this thread here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-28245-2013-perth-mint-snake-group-buy.html

malachii

PS - THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY - PLEASE DO NOT BASE YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS ON MY ADVICE/RAMBLINGS - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!!
 
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