Lookin Goooood

1021_silver.png


Good RR form here either way... personally down it is
 
Miloman said:
mmm... shiney and Screaming Eagle.

Learn for yourselves before thanking the guy.
Click to expand...

At least he explained how he arrived at his figures which show that the price rise was less than one SD, something you have not done yet. A link to a page that outlines how to calculate the SD doesn't provide the evidence I requested that backs up your your statement that the price movement was greater than 1 standard deviation.
 
screaming eagle said:
You could simply rebut mmm...shiney and wrcmad by presenting the time range you used and the subsequent calculations that you performed to come up with the assertion that the 5% price movement was greater than 1 SD.
Click to expand...

Question for anybody..


Is there a commonly-accepted time-range typically used to calculate?

Because if not, technically they could both be right -- as well as both be "wrong." ;)
 
screaming eagle said:
Miloman, I'm quite comfortable in my knowledge of statistics and also quite comfortable thanking wrcmad for his post. I greatly respect your knowledge when it comes to grading coins and about a number of other topics, however I appreciate the methodology that wrcmad presents when looking to calculate the SD of daily price moves, as I believe it to be 100% correct in accordance with the knowledge that I have on the subject, whilst being presented in simple terms. You could simply rebut mmm...shiney and wrcmad by presenting the time range you used and the subsequent calculations that you performed to come up with the assertion that the 5% price movement was greater than 1 SD. That's all I have to say on the matter.
Click to expand...

No worries, still suggest you learn to know the difference, especially in regards to the BB chart.
 
SilverPete said:
Just trying to understand this (if I'm wrong, tell me). If I choose the recommended defaults for Bollinger Bands on the interactive silver chart here: http://www.investing.com/commodities/silver-streaming-chart

...then it looks like there was more than 1 standard deviation on the day in question (this is USD), or am I reading it incorrectly?

http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/12844_screen_shot_2015-10-07_at_212323.png
Click to expand...
You are reading it correctly, but your chart is not a daily.
On my daily, price doesn't move more than one set dev. for BB(20,2) :)
 
SilverSale said:
thatguy said:
Good RR form here either way... personally down it is
Click to expand...

Higher to go yet mate.
Click to expand...
Interesting interaction with the trend line. A decent pull back and retest will have me long... but sitting pretty short ATM.

I think we see 13 before 17
 
thatguy said:
SilverSale said:
thatguy said:
Good RR form here either way... personally down it is
Click to expand...

Higher to go yet mate.
Click to expand...
Interesting interaction with the trend line. A decent pull back and retest will have me long... but sitting pretty short ATM.

I think we see 13 before 17
Click to expand...

I don't have time to chart right now, but just from a psychological perspective the $16usd area seemed like a top. Silver is up 10-15% from the bottom, but sentiment seems to have gone much higher. If it wasn't the end of my busy season, I would have bought DSLV today when silver was $16. That same trade in Oct-Nov last year made me 60% in about 6 weeks.
 
SilverSale wrote:
..and this is why I can't take SilverDoctors seriously;
"The Perth Mint Pops A Boner"
http://www.silverdoctors.com/perth-mint s-explode/

------------------------------------
This statistical analysis is all too complicated for me. I just know that all boners fall quickly after the peak is reached. The only time this is not true is if too much Viagra is used to manipulate the boner. :rolleyes:
 
Futures have fallen significantly, I think there is a further drop in store back down to where we were. Downtrend has not yet been broken so it will continue down.

I think we will get into the $14's next week. Earlier if we have a nasty day in Shanghai tomorrow.
 
thatguy said:
Interesting interaction with the trend line. A decent pull back and retest will have me long... but sitting pretty short ATM.

I think we see 13 before 17
Click to expand...


You may have very well trumped me on this occasion thatguy - good call.

I was expecting a run to at least US$17 before the plunge started.

I'm still looking for a drop to Sub US$10 (yes, well below $10) on the lext leg down :)
 
Miloman said:
SP, one more thing 20,2 is 2 S.D. per side not 1.
Click to expand...
You are correct. BB 20,2 is 2 SD, not one.
But that is irrelevant... Bollinger Bands were used by me as an example of how to calculate SD for price moves, and I didn't use BB20,2.
I could choose any time frame to show price didn't move 1 SD in one day.
No doubt you will latch on to BB20,2 as a diversion away from your original theory, but I hope not.

But, back to the original discussion... you were going to give me a stats lesson, and show how you calculated 5% of spot = 1 SD.
I am dying to see how you used your "maths" to calculate this.
You have posted in this thread 7 times since the question was posed to you (not by me), yet have not hinted at your methods.
Please relieve us of the suspense.
 
@ miloman, did you use the following procedure to calculate the SD on the day in question?

Miloman said:
Ok here's a little Maths that everyone can use simply, to find the sd of an acceptable 20 day BB with 1 SD, simple subtract the upper band number from the mean or the lower number from the mean. Bring up a chart and enter a 20 day moving average and 1 standard deviation then bring up a chart, you'll find on the top left 20,1,0 next to that you'll see 3 prices, one for the lower sd (lowest price), the middle price is the mean of the last 20 day and the highest number is the upper sd.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top