Look at this chart and conclude one thing?

hiho

hiho

Active Member
Silver Stacker
1403_gold_20_year_silver.png
 
Just one thing?

GSR is on a 20 year downward trend
GSR is incredibly volatile
GSR is normally over 50
If the GSR is below 50, it's usually not for long
Swings of 20-30 aren't uncommon over a short timespan, making physical GSR swaps practical
If the GSR is below 50, BUY GOLD
If the GSR hits 80, swap your gold for silver
 
Even with all the noise out of europe the GSR still hanging in there pretty tough?

Think I saw move out to 55 during the worst of the drop.
 
Great post hiho, I've been reading up on the GSR in recent months and feel I still have much to learn - somehow I feel this fatal attraction to metals is with you for life once you're bitten :)

I've also been looking at the longer term chart a bit lately - it make me consider a whole lot of different questions on top of the short/medium term one's.

2410_gsr_alldata.png


- Might we see a GSR of 65 to 70 next year?
- Will the longterm downtrend since 1990 continue, if so how long? (the lower lows since then suggest maybe we'll see it in the 20's sometime next year if the trend continues?)
- Why don't I have more silver? (actually I know the answer to that - temporary shortage of cash for my PM pool) :mad:
 
GSR 1:10 is not on the scale, back in 1992 people give away silver.

is it gold has been devalued by 90% ? even more than the Rupiah did.

Silver is still bigger than gold for the same weight.
 
Many traders, speculators, and investors focus on the gold/silver price ratio in determining which metal is under or overvalued. In recent weeks and months the ratio has collapsed from above 65:1, down to a current low of around 36:1. Throughout the twentieth century, the gold/silver price ratio went to nearly 100:1, occasionally dipped below 30:1, and only briefly hit a ratio of 17:1 in 1980. But few seem to question how misleading this ratio may be, let alone question why the ratio matters for a monetary system that (for the time being at least) is no longer based on gold and silver.
Click to expand...

the amount of new gold and silver bullion and coin production is not that far from 1:1, even if more silver is produced. And over the past decade, 35-40 times more silver was not earmarked for coins and bullion*, which is what the price ratio of gold to silver would lead you to believe.
Click to expand...

* he refers to silver that is lost to industrial use

http://www.financialsense.com/node/4809
 
t.shields said:
would it be wise to sell silver and buy gold at this time or whenever GSR goes below 50? thanks
Click to expand...

It would be wise for us to encourage you to make your own decision ;)
 
mmm....shiney! said:
t.shields said:
would it be wise to sell silver and buy gold at this time or whenever GSR goes below 50? thanks
Click to expand...

It would be wise for us to encourage you to make your own decision ;)
Click to expand...


I'm new to all this and was just hoping that people with more experience on the subject could share their experience. I'd rather get advise first then make a decision. ;)
 
t.shields said:
would it be wise to sell silver and buy gold at this time or whenever GSR goes below 50? thanks
Click to expand...

Basically what I did - I think at around a GSR of 42 I executed a GSR swap I'd been waiting on for a while. I'd also done the same at 50 - but mind you, much/most of that silver was acquired at GSRs between 60 to 80, so I was getting anywhere from 20% to 60% "free" gold when I swapped at 50 - basically I was locking in gains.

Didn't do much swapping in the 30s... got greedy and waited, then missed the chance. Swapped more at 40 on the way back up. Even with that "missed opportunity" though, the 40oz of silver it cost me to buy an ounce of gold would now net me 55oz. so if I traded again now, I would have turned 40oz of silver into 55oz of silver within 12 months - a 37.5% increase in silver holdings, just by executing some GSR swaps. Too bad I didn't have the guts to go "all in" when I switched to gold the first time.

So my personal accumulation plan is loosely based on:

GSR < 50 : Buy gold
GSR 50 - 60: Buy gold or silver
GSR > 60 : Buy silver

Of course I never stick to this, there's always exceptions based on snaffling a great deal etc, but that's the framework I use to guide my stacking progress.
 
1915_2410_gsr_alldata.png


on the chart after 1992
try to get gold with your silver near blue line

try to get silver with your gold near red line.

the windows are real small, you will be looking to swap within a 2 weeks window.

buy silver near red, buy gold near blue.
 
That only in 1980 it was where it belongs, in line with whats in the ground and the historical ratio.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top