Let's talk (near) future gold price

S

Sonic

New Member
My first post on this forum was asking others to speculate on the near future price of silver, while knowing that nobody knows for certain, also being new I didn't know if I should buy immediately then or wait. Most people speculated the price would drop a bit, for various reasons. And indeed it did. I profited (a little) by asking that question.

So now that I am setting money aside for gold I'm going to ask the same question. It would be nice if it dropped below $1000 but is this a realistic hope for 2015?
 
People are still predicting a drop but that narrative is slowly falling away. My money based on what I've read (I'm a compulsive metals media reader) is a bump in the next month or two then a wash out then the bottom is really in and it's nowhere to go but up but up.

Even if your only looking to make a short term profit I would wait and see if gold can hold $1200. It's an important physiological number and it's made it recently because of trouble in foreign and US markets, it should become clear in a few days whether or not that is likely to turn around or if it's a trend we can expect to continue to see supporting gold.
 
Caput Lupinum said:
According to the number I pulled from my ass $1075 USD by the end of the year
Click to expand...

That's what they were quoting in October for end of 2014, how did that work out?

Europe and Japan would have to do a complete 180, China would have to double forecast growth and all QE would have to be abandoned for gold to drop this year.
 
No1joey said:
Caput Lupinum said:
According to the number I pulled from my ass $1075 USD by the end of the year
Click to expand...

That's what they were quoting in October for end of 2014, how did that work out?

Europe and Japan would have to do a complete 180, China would have to double forecast growth and all QE would have to be abandoned for gold to drop this year.
Click to expand...

Makes sense. Which means gold will drop.
 
How? Europe is gone so is Japan, China is slowing fast Russias in recession oil is below $50 and every central bank will be running QE this year, US will not be raising rates this year. How can gold fail based on this?
 
Inflation hasn't been in any news for a long time and gold is holding, If not rising.

That's the great thing about gold it's success isn't pegged to just one thing. It can take gains from many aspects of the global economy. Bloomberg said equities will sink gold - didn't happen, then they said low oil will sink gold - didn't happen. The only reason the dollar is gaining is because every other currency is tanking not exactly solid organic sustainable growth.

If gold drops this year it's unfortunate for the only real form of 'money' around to be beaten by a printing press, but hey on the positive side means more buying opportunities. Then with central banks doing everything they can to starve off deflation will give way to hyperinflation in 1-3 years.
 
Near term Gold is approaching the 1220 resistance. Because we had a full moon last night it will smash this & bounce along the 1240 resistance for a short rest. IF' it does a runner i can see the handbrake coming on around the 1250....... All short term of course :P

374_gold_near_term.jpg
 
I'm being facetious. Recent events that were predicted to send gold higher have been having the opposite effect. The markets regularly defy logic.
 
Yes I agree house. The market is not following normal market behaviour and standard thinking cannot be applied to the current upward trend gold is enjoying. I feel that we are going to learn some new economic rules in the next few years but my money is on silver/gold going up quickly at some point in the next 2 years as people panic. All we need is a run on the banks,share market scare, or large scale military conflict to light the tinderbox of peoples insecurities
 
Ncm is looking good again which leads me to think that a set up is in place.
gold may rise a bit more but I wont be suprised to see another big move down.
 
Until it closes above $1250 it's just another selling opportunity for traders like me on the next decent resistance candle
 
It's almost impossible to predict it.... but, looking at our current economic global situation....

Currency wars, commodities wars(oil - especially), Debt x Credit(Europe countries that will need more $$$$ Greece, etc...) , Venezuela/Russia(possibly been bailed out by China), the biggest economic story of this present time( Energy source / energy crisis - OIL ).....

I see a big turmoil brewing ahead...... a possible big economic event in the scale of a new recession that could pretty much dwarf 2008/2009....

Derivatives and Bonds left aside..... this whole economic wars between countries are shaping up for a problematic and volatile times....

So, I still see any drop in GOLD prices a great opportunity to accumulate it.....

FORGET ABOUT PAPER PRICES....... set your minds in acquiring the metal and put it away for the rainy day.... and the day you will exchange the metal for another asset class......

my 2 cents....
 
Yes, I think it's possible for gold to sink below 1,000 $.

As a matter a fact, I'm almost certain it will drop below 1,100 $, should it follow the same rate it has been falling in 2013, 2014.
2014 was not as bearish as 2013, but gold ended the year falling lower than in 2013.

The signals on the market are bearish, the dollar is strong, oil price is going down. I expect gold to sink further.
DEFLATION is the keyword here. And during deflation commodity prices sink.

If you're eyeing the best price for buying gold bullion, then you might want to risk and wait until it walls below 1,000 $, then seize the opportunity and bite on! And hope it won't go much lower than that, hope it will recover.

I expect gold to rise in January, February. Then probably in April it will fall lower.

May-June, perhaps the first week of July will be bearish again. But it's better not to wait more than June. That's one of the best months for buying cheap gold.

In conclusion, my feelings for the lowest gold price in 2015 will be:

hovering around and never go below 1,200 $ > 33 % certainty
fall to around 1,100 $ > 90 % certainty
fall to around 1,000 $ > 70 % certainty
fall below 900 $ > 20 % certainty
 
Low oil no longer has a negative effect on gold its being negated by the effect its having on the stock market. There was a knee jerk reaction to low oil where stocks rose now its having a massive negative impact which will only get worse.

2015 is going to be a very volatile year for many reasons. Flight to safe havens will keep gold well above $1000.
 
TreasureHunter said:
Yes, I think it's possible for gold to sink below 1,000 $.

As a matter a fact, I'm almost certain it will drop below 1,100 $, should it follow the same rate it has been falling in 2013, 2014.
2014 was not as bearish as 2013, but gold ended the year falling lower than in 2013.

The signals on the market are bearish, the dollar is strong, oil price is going down. I expect gold to sink further.
DEFLATION is the keyword here. And during deflation commodity prices sink.

If you're eyeing the best price for buying gold bullion, then you might want to risk and wait until it walls below 1,000 $, then seize the opportunity and bite on! And hope it won't go much lower than that, hope it will recover.

I expect gold to rise in January, February. Then probably in April it will fall lower.

May-June, perhaps the first week of July will be bearish again. But it's better not to wait more than June. That's one of the best months for buying cheap gold.

In conclusion, my feelings for the lowest gold price in 2015 will be:

hovering around and never go below 1,200 $ > 33 % certainty
fall to around 1,100 $ > 90 % certainty
fall to around 1,000 $ > 70 % certainty
fall below 900 $ > 20 % certainty
Click to expand...

The key factors will be whether the ECB can conduct some form of QE and whether the Fed can or can't raise interest rates because of low inflation/deflation. Like you said low inflation or deflation will push gold lower and continue to push capital into the US dollar and bonds. A reverse in the Fed's forward guidance with another round of QE or a bubble bursting in the bond market are the only major events that I can see that will push gold higher in the near term.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top