Let's talk AUD!
- Thread starter sammysilver
- Start date
Jason1
Well-Known Member
no its supply vs demand.
The price will change once Brazil can start producing again. their production has been smashed by covid. thats why prices are high.
we are the only country currently running on all cylinders So we have the monopoly right now. But this isnt a long term thing, Brazil has been known to undercut us on price but they cant right now when they are being smashed by covid.
china is just crying because they dont want to deal with Aus any more but cant ditch our iron as they have little choice.
nicotineandcaffeine
Active Member
Of course but its a shit load easier when you no longer have to pretend independence, power is concentrated and transparency is even less.
nicotineandcaffeine
Active Member
Not while USD is falling
wouldn't surprise me if iron ore revenue is increasing then coal revenue from China actually increases.
No one knows where the AUD or any exchange rate will go. Unless the RBA lifted the OCR 1-2% then there's no certainty what the AUD will do especially in a world where many of the western countries are using the same economy crushing methods to deal with Covid plus cranking the printing presses / raising debt to stimulate the economy.
Ask 30 economists and you'll get 30 different views....all just as valid as weather forecasters and fortune tellers.
Ask 30 economists and you'll get 30 different views....all just as valid as weather forecasters and fortune tellers.
AUD is 76.66 tonight!
Pisst if it can bust the. .76 resistance... Next step is. .80
Extract below from a 29 June 2020 ABC news article in which they asked a group of economists to forecast various Australian economic indicators ie GDP, inflation, unemployment etc...including where the AUD / USD rate will be come 31 Dec 2020...No surprise, only 2 of 23 remotely close and and for good measure, not one of the below dart throwers got within a bulls roar of the current iron ore spot price (29 Dec 2020) of circa USD160t. 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...stralia-weak-recovery-getting-weaker/12398728
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...stralia-weak-recovery-getting-weaker/12398728
I don't mind an appreciating AUD v USD...may help to keep the AUD gold and silver prices stable / down a tad which is good if you a buyer.
Given the history of the AUD / USD rate, it goes down like it did in 2001/2, then up again, 2010, then back down...Traders love the AUD, one of the most traded (7th most traded from memory).
Last time (and it was a few years back), I calculated for sh$ts & giggles the AUD / USD average rate since 1983. Was circa 0.72 ish. so current level not far past long term average.
My belief is that the factors that will cause the AUD to drop will also drop metal prices. However, I think the AUD will drop considerable more resulting in a marked increase in the cost of metals. Meantime now is a good time to buy.
Maybe for gold, but silver may drop more than AUD? Buying gold in AUD made a lot of sense a month ago. Now isn’t too bad either. I suspect there will be action next month that will propel gold, a repeat of a year ago.
.77 as we speak. Keep buying the metal of your choice.
Yes, indeed. I always read my annual horoscope. It's always more accurate than the economy pundits with their fanciful predictions .
In fact if I'd taken last year's advice I'd have bought Bitcoin at its low. ( electric energy rules! lol.)
bit coin $47,000 AUD -- keep buying teh crypto of your choice
It’s a race to the biggest crash!