LEON's weekly COT report analysis
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
leon1998 said:When Oldsoul attacked my posts, the moderator of this forum did absolutely NOTHING to stop it.
I start to believe attacking peeps is a forum culture of this site.
How do you feel after being hit
Yup I think you an idiot. Still do.
I think what differentiates you from me is that you have a habit of starting multiple threads back to back which pretty much amounts to vandalism and an attempt to disrupt free speech..it is difficult to see how you can appeal to free speech to protect you in your disturbed behaviour. If you were banned for this I would not particularly care as you add nothing of note to any exchange. You do this on other website forums too not just here and engage in trolling and cross posting to an extent that, like I said makes me believe you are possibly a disturbed minor.
As regards your 'analysis' I really don't think you have any track record.
PMs have a seasonality long established that rotates in late spring/early summer, you, having been finally educated to that fact some time ago have proceeded to try and present yourself as something you are not and repost profound nonsense. Unless you have some revelation relating to why you engage in this - I see you as just another disturbed person loose on the internet.
I note you have developed pretentions towards day trading. I doubt you will listen but nonetheless prepare to loose every penny you bet, in your case I doubt this amounts to more than accumulated pocket money provided to you by someone with a job..
Leon you really don't understand do you. Oldsoul attacked you because you were making unsubstantiated comments. You were saying things like gold is going to $900. You were doing this over and over and over again in multiple posts. Now you may believe this - good for you but if you want others to accept it, you need to explain and demonstrate proof and evidence. No one will criticise you for laying out a succinct argument, right or wrong. But you didn't do that, instead we got more rhetoric, more posts every time prices dropped. When prices went up you disappeared.
By the way, you did not hurt me. All you did was to demonstrate to everyone that no one should take you seriously and that you need to start thinking rather than posting. Take this as constructive advice...
By the way, you did not hurt me. All you did was to demonstrate to everyone that no one should take you seriously and that you need to start thinking rather than posting. Take this as constructive advice...
leon1998 said:Two trolling morons jumped up and down in my threads.
They just lost so much in their stacks since 2011 and didn't want to hear the truth; how pathetic.
Actually I lost all my PMs in a boating accident but since I bought long before 2011 and have done nothing but swap into different forms the pile at the bottom of the ocean has show for me appreciable gains and inherent advantages.
Why did you never reply to my comments relating to Elliot waves in your failed prediction thread in February?
I think it is because you have almost no actual understanding of the material you post whether it be pretentions to technical analysis reposts or the complexities of futures markets.
I see you posting in another place touting your new found knowledge of seasonality that you actually gained here. You troll to get responses and use the responses to try and make yourself sound like you have a clue.
It is a bit disturbed Leon - can't you see that?
You do realise that trying to cause forum wars (as you have done by discussing this site elsewhere) is a bit lame?
So I still see you in the same way; If you want to rise to the dizzy heights of more than three line troll posts some day or spamming forums then someone may begin to give a shite. Neither do I believe that your dream goal of buying a few ASEs at 17 points to you having any substantial skin to put in any game. Otherwise you would be mentioning kilos.
That's the logic and observation that makes me thing you are a minor with personality issues.
By the way...you won't make money trading seasonality with a handful of one ounce coins either kiddo. Sorry to burst your bubble. I won't tell you why either because naturally I don't particularly care what happens to your pocket money.
You must be green with jealousy of those that have a lot of physical bought at the turn of the century. Try getting a job if you want wealth instead of sitting on your arse posting vapour and living some deranged fantasy where you are some kind of market maker.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
You are quoting a gotgoldreport.com "we believe" containing sentence, as a "COT themselves".Ronnie 666 said:I was just going through old COT reports and came across this report from the COT 2011
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/0...ks-cover-shorts-swap-dealers-hammer-gold.html
This is the area of interestunderlined)
From the disaggregated COT data, it is pretty clear who was behind this week's weakness in the gold bullion market, and it wasn't the big U.S. reporting banks this time. Indeed, as spot or cash market gold was moving 1% lower for the week (Tuesday to Tuesday), the category of COMEX commercial traders the CFTC classes as Producer/Merchant/Processor/Users (PMs); the category of traders that we believe includes the largest U.S. bullion banks, covered or offset 16,173 contracts of their existing net short positioning, moving from 149,434 to 133,261 lots net short.
So Leon according to the COT themselves the Bullion banks are represented mostly on the category of Producer/Merchant/Processor/Users not in the swap dealers as you maintain..... So Leon I did my homework and found you wanting. Yes as Oz puts it a troll !
This is the CFTC / COT themselves:
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publ...ments/file/disaggregatedcotexplanatorynot.pdf
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@commitmentsoftraders/documents/file/tfmexplanatorynotes.pdf
"Dealer Intermediary"
"The Dealer Intermediary represents "Sell Side" participants. These include large banks (U.S. and non-U.S.) and dealers in securities, swaps and other derivatives. Typically, these are dealers and intermediaries that earn commissions on selling financial products, capturing bid/offer spreads and otherwise accommodating clients."
These are some 3rd party explanations / repeats:
www.upperman.com/webshare/2011/cot-jan2011.pdf <- which trader classes are typical "sell-side" and which are typical "demand-side".
http://www.myfxbook.com/commitments-of-traders
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ays-register-as-swap-dealers-under-dodd-frank
...and finally the COT, themselves, again:
http://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/DoddFrankAct/registerswapdealer
"Provisionally Registered Swap Dealers
A list of provisionally registered swap dealers is listed below. This list is current as of May 5, 2015."
...
BARCLAYS BANK PLC
DEUTSCHE BANK AG
HSBC BANK PLC
HSBC BANK USA NA
JP MORGAN SECURITIES LLC
JP MORGAN SECURITIES PLC
JP MORGAN VENTURES ENERGY CORPORATION
JPMORGAN CHASE BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
UBS AG
...
Swap dealers are entities that are intermediaries in the trading with pension funds and endowments.
During the past decade, the latter arrived on the precious metal markets, to chew out speculators money, using swap dealers as their intermediary in their buy/sell actions.
Aboves banks are all registered as swap dealers.
They all together form the London Bullion Market Association.
So whatever you and some others called user leon1998, there are quite some sources, including the COT itself (unlike your false claim), that support the statement that bullion banks reside under the swap dealer trader class in the COT report.
Not as a "rule" or so, just based on their predominant activity at the time, and that time includes the last update / most recent.
leon1998 said:
Pirocco said:
Commercials are in both categories but certainly not exclusively in swaps because they can't spread which account for a fair whack of position in that category. As far as I'm concerned this thread is just inverted harvy organing to the same endless purpose.
And you yourself say in black and white that a focus on short positions by commercials is totally useless. earlier in the thread which kinds of makes you inconsistent to say the least as you are denying the very basis of this BS thread.
The statement that the banks are in fact trading in the role of commericals exclusively as swaps is shite. The commercials are well known to be in both categories.
So lets look at the movement in those two categories since the report that started this thread
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Did they move long or short
Overall reduced short positions by -7203
Swap Dealers
Overall increased short position by +5786
Calculated by me from
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders-All Futures Combined Positions as of April 28, 2015
: Reportable Positions
Vs
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders-All Futures Combined Positions as of April 7, 2015
: Reportable Positions
So overall since this thread was started the commercials are actually dropped 1417 short positions (because they are either in : Producer/Merchant/Processor/User or Swap Dealers and *cannot* spread. So the whole basis of this meaningless thread is utter BS. However I'm sure some would be statistician will leap in with something complex 'looking' for no reason.
Seasonality I will say it again Seasonality.
By the way P I think you are fully aware Ronnie was basically correct and are just stirring the pot pointlessly.
Oldsoul perhaps it's time to leave Leon and his minions to themselves. The U.S. Stock market is looking very scary and many forecasters with a somewhat better record than Leon or Pirocco are getting jumpy on the stocks and US$. The MACD of the U.S. stocks are now rolling over and the US$ index has slipped below 95. If you think now is a great time to sell gold go with Leon. My view is that things over the next months and years for gold are looking very golden. It patently obvious that Leon is simply trying to get people to panic and sell thir position or buy shorts on the PM at a time when no one has a clue about what is happening day to day. Longer term it is obvious that this ginormous bubble in stocks, bonds and the US$ has a meeting with destiny. Pirocco believes that we will not live to see that day and as a mayfly heading into the month of May he may be right as mayflies live for only 1 day. Seriously, most SS know what Leon is all about so it's pointless posting any more. Leave him to post as many negative unsubstantiated comments as he likes. When no one cares he will move to greener pastures.
Gold will be below $1000 before the years is out. Leon knows it and is trying to show as best as he can how it's going to happen.
Gold is barely treading water at the moment.....no strength at all.
Gold will have its day....but not just yet.
If you don't agree with Leon then ignore him. At least he has a position and is sticking to it.
Gold is barely treading water at the moment.....no strength at all.
Gold will have its day....but not just yet.
If you don't agree with Leon then ignore him. At least he has a position and is sticking to it.
tolly_67 said:
He posts random nonsense ranging from shite like Elliot waves to one liners about futures markets. He also has a long history of bogus price calls on silver and starting multiple one line threads back to back. He has been trolling the forums here since February and believe me vanishes from the threads he starts when he gets it utterly wrong very quickly indeed.
You may not be aware of his propensity to cross post frantically across different websites and use the replies he gets as further material.
if you wanted to read reasoned bear market thinking leon is not where you will get it any more than you would get reasoned bull market thinking from kwn. He is a spammer and a troll.
I have a question for you;
When is the gold market at its weakest seasonally(the fact leon picked up here he is trying to spin into something more with his shite)?
When is it at its strongest seasonally?
And you are calling gold sub 1000 * at year end*? You understand that would represent at 20% drop allowing a 4% or so for seasonal variation from here?
Do you have any reasoning for this remarkable event? Please understand Leon was *factually incorrect* in his prediction based on his 'experience' regarding increasing short positions and in fact the commercials have reduced their short position....
I think we could be about to mirror the bottom of the mid boom retracement in 1976.
Gold dropped from just over $130 in May to be at $105 by late August. This is a 20% drop.
Apply to the price of around $1200 today and you end up with about $970.
More than enough to convince many that the bull market in gold is over but proof enough for me that the retracement is over.
The recovery out from the low back to the peak will make a 'V' shape.....so 4 more years before we reach a new high and another 4 before it makes the $5000 mark.
I hope you all have until 2023 at least.
Gold dropped from just over $130 in May to be at $105 by late August. This is a 20% drop.
Apply to the price of around $1200 today and you end up with about $970.
More than enough to convince many that the bull market in gold is over but proof enough for me that the retracement is over.
The recovery out from the low back to the peak will make a 'V' shape.....so 4 more years before we reach a new high and another 4 before it makes the $5000 mark.
I hope you all have until 2023 at least.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
The focus on short is useless, since a short position implies the existence of a long position.Oldsoul said:
So, the word "position" suffices.
The only inconsistency is your reaction on "short positions" instead of "short".
I didn't say 'exclusively'.Oldsoul said:
I even added in my last post that the presence of the lbma banks in the swap dealer list as published by the COT wasn't a "rule". It's just how it is, at the moment of the last update of that list.
Ronnie666 claimed that the COT itself said that, while it was a gotgoldreport.com statement, and they even worded it as "WE BELIEVE".Oldsoul said:
A by the way for you: that's lying. I think you are fully aware, and your own pot stirring should be your concern, not mine.
User leon1998 uses the COT report to have a clue about the coming price trend. That's what I do myself too. Only that I really don't care who has what position, all I care is the total net position of the futures market as a whole, all longs + all shorts, supply and demand side of course equal and inverted.
A focus on swap dealers is a focus on an interesting club on the futures market: the club along which pension funds and endowments, being large / systemic entities. The documentation says that this is a relatively new phenomenon, they didn't before the bull market, and they are then responsible for a part of that price trend up. Following specific position trends may give some insight in who takes the initiative of buying or selling, of a trade. If for ex a long position holder dumps the long position, then the counterparty dumps a short position as a reaction. Recognizing the initiating side may help interpreting the COT report, and give a clue about what's going on in the market, and what will happen with the price trend to come.
It's clear that some people do not like this, and equally clear why.
About the purpose: predicting the gold price trend to come, well, what would the gold price trend have been without central banks net purchases since 2010 or so? From 400 tonnes selling per year to 400 tonnes buying per year. That's an 800 tonnes supply/demand change, a double price trend effect.
What if they revert to selling it again? It's what they've done for decades.
Gold ETF's, existing since 2004, still have 2/3 of their peak stock. They sold 880 tonnes in 2013 and 159 tonnes in 2014.
And general prices far from rising like many thought. Rather the opposite.
So I can't see much reason to have other expectations than leon1998's.
I do understand that some may not have finished loading off high to suckers that BELIEVE bulls.
Pirocco said:
Do you disagree with this and if so why
Oldsoul said:
Neither am I a gold 'bull' this year I expect a trading range of 1100-1375. That is simply based on average seasonality and where we are at and I myself set little store by because gold prices are based very much on geopolitical events and central bank activities. . I read your posts and find them entertaining but I think it is very disingenuous to try and say that the various threads started by Leon have been focused on futures or indeed his previous predictions accurate. Unless you happen to also subscribe to Elliot waves.....in which case good luck, you may as well use astrology and I stall skip past your posts in future.
As a percentage of my portfolio PMs have never occupied more than 20% and by that I doubt I could even be classed as a 'gold bug'. As I have said many times I value PMs for many reasons but do not subscribe to 'to the moon' BS. I am not selling. As regards predicting price trends - it is a pretty daft waste of time for long term holders like myself to engage in short tem price predictions.but I never see you reference the seasonality that is extraordinarily evident in gold futures (for understandable reasons). That seasonality more than anything else explains current prices - no COT reports, Elliot waves, astrology or chicken bones required. That same seasonality would normally indicate a higher price in the end of November/start of december.....not enough to get particularly excited about but certainly higher than the current price or whatever low is hit in July(possibly 1100)...you can reference this in my earlier posts..that would imply a year end in or around 1300..I do find the idea of amateur daytraders trying to play shorts on PMs as borderline financial insanity and a painful learning exercise in get rich quick schemes.
So the oracle (Pirocco) has spoken and as usual it is like all soothsayers covered in mumbo jumbo. We mortals cannot see what prices will do tomorrow or next week. The bullion banks with freshly non-printed digital currency will whipsaw the paper prices back and forth cleaning out the shorts and longs in this paper racket we call the COT. There is no trading there is no market discovery. Yet you Pirocco see it all, and Leon you know it all. I have news for all of you. You and I and all the SS members know squat. We have no idea of the short term moves and while gold may fall $100 it may not and equally my move up $100. Most of us realise this and know the rules, ie. This is a long term strategy. Stacking is saving and like all money PM can fluctuate up and down but eventually when the Ponzi scheme we call the "free market" collapses we will be insulated from some of the coming pain. That is what this is all about. Anything more and you are delusional.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
And the total net position on the Comex again sits at its 60000 top.
So the amount silver ordered but nearly never delivered sits at its top.
Increasing the spot price with a forward component that is bound to vanish.
Positivity spreading galore.
Then they cancel the orders.
Negativity spreading galore.
Then they bogus buy back in same way.
And another cycle started.
It doesn't need eternatility mortality and oracles, just data.
That some prefer others to not see.
So the amount silver ordered but nearly never delivered sits at its top.
Increasing the spot price with a forward component that is bound to vanish.
Positivity spreading galore.
Then they cancel the orders.
Negativity spreading galore.
Then they bogus buy back in same way.
And another cycle started.
It doesn't need eternatility mortality and oracles, just data.
That some prefer others to not see.
A+ thread, would read again
I find it funny that you are arguing with each other, but have you bothered to think of each others perspective for a moment? Lets say leon isn't a troll, for all you know he could be a short term or a swing trader which appears to be a completely different position/mindset to those arguing against him; being long term asset allocation/investors.
Just because you don't find it useful to your dollar cost averaging/fundamental investment approach, to then say "using commercial net shorting is useless" is silly. For you it might be, but for a swing trader COT data can be useful to form a trade idea, along with other factors.
Personally I prefer the idea of looking at all of the commercial positions in aggregate versus large/small speculators. If you are trying to call him on his bullshit because he is just using the swaps/dealers or insert XXX reason at the end of the day all that matters is whether or not you make money.
I find it funny that you are arguing with each other, but have you bothered to think of each others perspective for a moment? Lets say leon isn't a troll, for all you know he could be a short term or a swing trader which appears to be a completely different position/mindset to those arguing against him; being long term asset allocation/investors.
Just because you don't find it useful to your dollar cost averaging/fundamental investment approach, to then say "using commercial net shorting is useless" is silly. For you it might be, but for a swing trader COT data can be useful to form a trade idea, along with other factors.
Personally I prefer the idea of looking at all of the commercial positions in aggregate versus large/small speculators. If you are trying to call him on his bullshit because he is just using the swaps/dealers or insert XXX reason at the end of the day all that matters is whether or not you make money.
