Leon's Chart: Silver Spot Weekly Movement

L

leon1998

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20151113_leon.png

Source:
An interesting rule: whenever Full STO passed 50 in a down wavelet, it will hit 20 eventually regardless. Even after it hits 20, the intermediate bottom doesn't show up until four or five weeks later; check the black vertical lines. In summary, we're far from an intermediate bottom; I hope the downtrend purple line support will hold; but odds are low :rolleyes:

Since Banksters are still sitting on massive short position on Silver futures contract (they are NET short 119 million ozs/3700 tons of silver!) A very possible scenario is, to break below PURPLE downtrend channel, run the stop-loss hunt and create a panic environment; so that Banksters can quietly cover their massive short position behind the curtain. I gave a 90% odd on this plan. :P
 
Looks as expected. The speculators are going short on technical breakdown, driving price lower. Same rinse, wash, and repeat cycle.
 
Swap dealers covered some shorts; but still heavily net short:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long Short
26,442 42,133

This is net short of 15691 contracts; considering each contract has 5000 oz. (My calculation shows swap dealers still net short 2451.7 tons of silver!)

Last report, their net short was 3700+ tons; indeed some improvement but not enough. Silver price may continue to go down, until Thanksgiving; by then, probably the net short can be roughly gone. :P
 
We're getting closer and closer to the lower PURPLE channel support line.

If this Friday's Silver futures report shows no significant reduction on Commercial Traders' NET shorts, it is almost certain US$13.7 will NOT hold. :P
 
leon1998 said:
We're getting closer and closer to the lower PURPLE channel support line.

If this Friday's Silver futures report shows no significant reduction on Commercial Traders' NET short, it is almost certain US$13.7 will NOT hold. :P
Click to expand...
 
Interesting COT reports: Swap Dealers are NET LONG gold; but NET SHORT silver. :rolleyes:

Next two weeks leading to December's FOMC meeting, could be quiet due to Thanksgiving Holiday; I believe an interim bottom is approaching. Really hope Silver can make one more drop so that I can order some coins WITH holiday special pricing :P

Jim4silver said:
Looks like commercials are ditching their shorts pretty heavy (and adding longs) in gold and silver quite recently.

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1448051570.php

Jim
Click to expand...
 
That's a pretty big increase in shorts by the specs, in a period where the price of gold has essentially gone sideways. Thought with that kind of positioning the price of gold would be closer to $1000 than it is. Change in the wind perhaps.
 
leon1998 said:
Interesting COT reports: Swap Dealers are NET LONG gold; but NET SHORT silver. :rolleyes:

Next two weeks leading to December's FOMC meeting, could be quiet due to Thanksgiving Holiday; I believe an interim bottom is approaching. Really hope Silver can make one more drop so that I can order some coins WITH holiday special pricing :P

Jim4silver said:
Looks like commercials are ditching their shorts pretty heavy (and adding longs) in gold and silver quite recently.

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1448051570.php

Jim
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

No need to hope Leon, there's a 90% chance of that happening.
 
Nevertheless, the projected bottom price based on a 10000 total net futures position shows this trend:
17/11/2015 35524 $14.25 > $12.43 <- jumped back up to oktober level.
10/11/2015 50129 $14.55 > $11.68
03/11/2015 67141 $15.38 > $11.30
27/10/2015 69373 $15.80 > $11.56
20/10/2015 66800 $15.86 > $11.80
13/10/2015 58626 $15.61 > $12.14
06/10/2015 49502 $15.67 > $12.85
29/09/2015 30106 $14.56 > $13.12
22/09/2015 31314 $14.94 > $13.42
15/09/2015 22255 $14.35 > $13.475
08/09/2015 25560 $14.63 > $13.52
01/09/2015 24566 $14.68 > $13.64
25/08/2015 23970 $14.87 > $13.87
18/08/2015 25437 $15.23 > $13.41
09/06/2015 35941 $16.13 > $14.28
02/06/2015 57569 $16.70 > $13.30
 
Thanksgiving is proven to be the right time to stack, AGAIN.

Don't back up the truck yet; it could be just an interim bottom. I am going to pick up some Silver bullions as planned. :P
 
leon1998 said:
If Silver spot can't break above US$14.7 area (20-day moving average), this bounce might fizzle out, as usual. :P
Click to expand...
the interday rallies are really weak. Makes me think it's going lower.

Maybe good buying opportunity this Friday
 
Proper Gander said:
leon1998 said:
If Silver spot can't break above US$14.7 area (20-day moving average), this bounce might fizzle out, as usual. :P
Click to expand...
the interday rallies are really weak. Makes me think it's going lower.

Maybe good buying opportunity this Friday
Click to expand...

Good Call, Proper Gander. Silver might slip to US$13.5 in the next month.
 
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