Key long term supports for Silver

It's definitely possible but not a certainty, I would only allocate 50% of my money intended for silver waiting for that level. The other 50% i would use to accumulate earlier starting when the first of the higher supports are reached.
 
For me the only issue is 'do you need the cash for something else, or do you want to save it to your own personal private bank for use some years hence.'

SAVE
1. to rescue from danger or possible harm, injury, or loss.
2. to keep safe, intact, or unhurt; safeguard; preserve.
3. to keep from being lost.
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If you want to invest (risk) your cash on movements in the price in the short-medium term, then flip a coin, it is as viable a prediction method as any it seems.


I agree with the view that trying to time the bottom is not worth the stress. Either cost average or sell now if 24 months at less than $20 would hurt you.

That is not a prediction btw - just a scenario.

and p.s - anything under 30 is a bargain in my view.
 
RetardedMonkey: Yeah, let's see how this goes :)


Maybe one other thing to keep in mind is that the cost of producing silver this year is about $16~17. That level, I reckon, would be the mother of all supports.
 
gelxi said:
Maybe one other thing to keep in mind is that the cost of producing silver this year is about $16~17. That level, I reckon, would be the mother of all supports.
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Whole heartedly agree there mate.

I cannot forsee silver dropping below its production cost, it would be madness.
 
RetardedMonkey said:
gelxi said:
Maybe one other thing to keep in mind is that the cost of producing silver this year is about $16~17. That level, I reckon, would be the mother of all supports.
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Whole heartedly agree there mate.

I cannot forsee silver dropping below its production cost, it would be madness.
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Platinum has...
 
Thank you for the link gelxi.
How do you (or any stackers) interpret the fall in price happening on such low volume.
 
Southerner said:
How do you (or any stackers) interpret the fall in price happening on such low volume.
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I think this answers it's own question - the price has fallen so far so quickly because there is such low volume. If the big traders hadn't been on holiday - the fluctuations of the markets wouldn't have been so severe.

malachii
 
The buying will be humungous if silver drops much further. This fall can't last too long.
 
RetardedMonkey said:
gelxi said:
Maybe one other thing to keep in mind is that the cost of producing silver this year is about $16~17. That level, I reckon, would be the mother of all supports.
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Whole heartedly agree there mate.

I cannot forsee silver dropping below its production cost, it would be madness.
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The whole production cost argument with commodities such as silver is a problem. Silver is a by product of the mining/production of other commodities. There are very few silver only mines in the world. This means that even if the price of silver dropped to $1 oz, 80 - 90% of the current silver production would continue and be sold on the world market as it would still be better financially for the miners than dumping it/trying to dispose of it some other way.

malachii
 
malachii said:
RetardedMonkey said:
gelxi said:
Maybe one other thing to keep in mind is that the cost of producing silver this year is about $16~17. That level, I reckon, would be the mother of all supports.
Click to expand...
Whole heartedly agree there mate.

I cannot forsee silver dropping below its production cost, it would be madness.
Click to expand...

The whole production cost argument with commodities such as silver is a problem. Silver is a by product of the mining/production of other commodities. There are very few silver only mines in the world. This means that even if the price of silver dropped to $1 oz, 80 - 90% of the current silver production would continue and be sold on the world market as it would still be better financially for the miners than dumping it/trying to dispose of it some other way.

malachii
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I disagree.

A large number of short positions are miners locking in future sell prices. As silver prices fall, said miners are less inclined to lock in future prices as in all likelyhood the price will rise in the future, thus, the price rises.
 
malachii has raised a valid point there.

But, I still believe there is production cost involved, even if it is a by-product. There needs to be silver-specific processes used to extract silver from ore. (read: http://www.monacorarecoins.com/rare-coin-articles/silver-extraction/)

If the cost of these processes were more than the value/price of the silver they would be ommited. The silver would not be recovered, the waste will merely be dumped after the primary metal has been extracted.
 
gelxi said:
But, I still believe there is production cost involved, even if it is a by-product. There needs to be silver-specific processes used to extract silver from ore. (read: http://www.monacorarecoins.com/rare-coin-articles/silver-extraction/)

If the cost of these processes were more than the value/price of the silver they would be ommited. The silver would not be recovered, the waste will merely be dumped after the primary metal has been extracted.
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Yes and no. If the cost of the processes was more than the value/price of silver but still cheaper than the cost of disposing of the waste silver any other way - then the silver would still be processed and sold on the world market.

Don't underestimate the cost of doing business (disposing of waste silver in this case) in the current Green led environment. It can be a lot cheaper (both financially and politically) to process the silver ore than dispose of it in the way the Green government wants.

malachii
 
gelxi said:
Hi guys, I know this might not be everyone's cup of tea, but I just want to share with my fellow SS friends here what I see from the charts.

I am currently waiting to buy silver on dips below $30. So where is a suitable place to buy? I try to look for the key long-term support areas below $30 on the silver ($US) weekly chart.

Here are my findings of where the key support areas are right now:
$26.42 (fixed) : 22/1/2011 and 24/9/2011 Low
$24.46 (rising) : Bullish Support trendline starting from 25/10/2008 (trendline started 3 years ago)
$23.56 (falling): Bottom of flag in flag formation (flag started 3 years ago)
$21.36 (fixed) : 15/3/2008 High (3.5 years ago)

Where do YOU think the current correction will end? Do you think it will even go below $30? :)
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Hi Gelxi, looks like your thoughts were pretty close. It is one thing to predict it and another to look back and see you were pretty close. Regardless of if it is blind luck or good judgement it is there for all to see, well done :)

If I could get some help from you all in regards to some terms being used.

Support, I see this used a lot in a positive and a negative way. What does this actually mean ?

gelxi said:
@Nedsnotdead: There will likely be a lot of buyers waiting at the long-term support levels listed out above. It will really take a major sell-off to breach each long-term support price level. Hence in my opinion these are the good places to place our own buys. I indicated how long ago each support has been established because, usually, the longer the support has been around for, the stronger the support is.
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Austacker, haha thanks for the compliment.. but I didn't actually predict anything, this was a passive plan, to be ready to react if and when the price dropped below $30.

The plan helped me to hold off from buying until the support levels are reached.

Support levels/lines basically mean the price at which there is expected to be a lot of buyers, just as I mentioned to Nedsnotdead.

Here is wiki's explanation:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_and_resistance#Support

For myself, I visualize support (and resistance) lines like electric fences surrounding the price. Once the price tries to go beyond the fence, it gets a shock and backs off.

However, if the price is really determined to break out of the fence, it could and it will when there is a huge momentum.

A very good example is silver's price just a few hour's ago. It hit the first support I listed out @ $26.42, and tried to go beyond it, but got the zappppp! ^.^ Last I looked it's now bounced up to $27.42.

Now why are these places good to buy? While short-term supports are easier to break, LONG- TERM supports are like electric fences with the highest voltage around. It'll take a massive effort to break them. So if we want the fences to work for us, we do that by placing our buys at these levels too.


Not a perfect explanation, but hope the analogy helps ^.^
 
malachii said:
gelxi said:
But, I still believe there is production cost involved, even if it is a by-product. There needs to be silver-specific processes used to extract silver from ore. (read: http://www.monacorarecoins.com/rare-coin-articles/silver-extraction/)

If the cost of these processes were more than the value/price of the silver they would be ommited. The silver would not be recovered, the waste will merely be dumped after the primary metal has been extracted.
Click to expand...

Yes and no. If the cost of the processes was more than the value/price of silver but still cheaper than the cost of disposing of the waste silver any other way - then the silver would still be processed and sold on the world market.

Don't underestimate the cost of doing business (disposing of waste silver in this case) in the current Green led environment. It can be a lot cheaper (both financially and politically) to process the silver ore than dispose of it in the way the Green government wants.

malachii
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Thanks for sharing your insight malachii, I really never thought about the cost of disposing silver waste the environmentally-friendly way before. Definitely need to factor that in and research more into that next time. Cheers.
 
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